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Allviewswelcome - I've also gone overweight in gold and other precious metal producers in the past couple of weeks. Yesterday was a much better day than today for the stocks I hold. I'm not sure what investors think has 'improved' in terms of economic outlook and tackling the virus but it looks to me like a profit taking exercise and nothing fundamentally has improved. Arguably expectations are worsening with each passing day so I would bet on gold rising above $1700 in the next couple of weeks.
I have to say the silence is as ever deafening from their PR team.
HUM price drop "likely" due to ongoing II seller, (standard life??) and no significant II on the other side of the trade. Once the decision to exit a position is given by a PM at the II, the desk jockeys will simply sell it as any opportunity, which is what is happening.
Normally you have IIs on the otherside of the trade. But the issue is IIs dont trust Dan, and hence they are few of them. Value means nothing is investors dont know the story or avoid it. Dan could change all this in a pen stroke and declare a buy back.
Perhaps a lot of people/institutions are over leveraged so need to sell profitable assets to cover losses elsewhere. Just a thought, IMO etc.
Value should out eventually, just depends how far the market drops, but personally I've gone overweight on gold stocks and companies selling their production on fixed price contracts over the last 6 months or so.
Nice to see gold moving higher again, so showing good strength around the $1650 level. more than happy if we just stay above $1600 but Ill take it.
In Rio for two days so just had a peep at Hummingbird and gold price.
Can’t believe that this share is not going through the roof.
Brazil nuts are the hard ones to crack.
Making a few pennies to put in their piggy banks ,premium bonds or bank savings accounts.
Not getting any of my shares, might have a carnival mask at the £1 party.
For sure the medium term implications are not understood on Corona. I think the market is looking and praying, as it knows if this gets out of hand, (plug in your own assessment), there will be such a rush for the exit, it will get out of control. Perhaps they see this and view the fed as the counter to a bear market. but I agree, there is no change to strategy......yet
That's because of reinfection, every time it weakens the immune system further until even a small infection and kerboom.
At least they think the money is staying in the market for now - I guess that helps ?
3000 Chinese medical staff infected with Corona, so something isn't right in their protection methods, and/or its harder to combat than they thought.
Again the S&P and the Nasdaq are down about 2,5% so when the USA markets open the DOW should take another hit and POG could see another good day.
Perfect storm?
They haven't cottoned onto the elephant in the room - reinfection is possible and has been indirectly observed (outlying "long incubation times"). Even WHO think this is the case. Market just doesn't understand what that implies. It makes it a whole new ball game. Maybe they thin we'll have a flu free summer - didn't happen with SARs or MERs.
At this rate FCF for the year is biger than MC of 101m. Caching
Its remarkable how little gold miners have moved globally on Corona and GP. The price action shows IIs selling into moves up, as detailed by their prior mandates, i.e. sell (gold) miners.
If that is the case, then for sure their investment strategies are super long growth stocks and likely not diversified (known) AND nothing has changed at strategy level due to Corona. If SPX tanks there will be the mother of all unwinds......there is no repositioning going on, just people shorting indices. GP is typically outside of II fund flows. Remarkable how the pros view tail risk with what is going on......
With the AISC at last year Q4 rate and the current POG say at $1640 for ease of calculation. If that averaged out across this quarter that would give us circa 27 million FCF.
NICE.
Yep, should lower our AISC too!
Not surprisingly Brent is continuing to sell off. Will be surprised if it doesn't take out the Feb low of around $53 given how the global economy appear to be deteriorating. Should drive the markets lower and gold up.
Dropinmonkey - I get 46p but let’s not quibble. I’m not quite sure how much to deduct for tax so happy to believe I may be a little out.
Death toll soared to 50 in Iran.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iranian-lawmaker-says-50-have-died-coronavirus-outbreak-qom
Exactly. How will markets look if parts of Korea, Japan, Italy, Germany, France and UK are on lock down? Not pretty and gold will roof it. Might only be a couple of weeks away so stay safe out there.
Agreed, best to keep hold of gold stock for a while at least as the virus panic is likely to worsen in the near term at least.
Agreed. Looks like a few folks just couldn't resist selling a few as round figured 30p was hit. Bit sad really. Fully expect gold and gold miners will continue to skyrocket until the spread of the virus outside China is fully under control, which may be a long way off. Add to that the macro economic and monetary backdrop and it looks likes the perfect storm has arrived for the gold sector and HUM is in great shape. Remember that gold miners soared in the great depression even as the rest of the system went of the cliff. HUM could do very well indeed. GLA
@1700 POG I'm getting an NAV of 44p, ex Dugbe, using 5% exploration investment, move my SGA to £5m pa., using just reserves, i.e. only current mine plan. Anybody showing diff figures at $1700?
Once the US wakes up we could see gold breaking $1700 today.
Now 30p on the ASk. I said we would see 30p this week - flying!