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@Jammer1: I expect the AISC will be a combination of COVID costs (changes to working practices, use of sterile equipment, plus bonuses for staff who are clearly having to do long stretches on site), plus some changes to the mine plan. On the latter I think they may be taking the opportunity of the higher gold price to put through some lower grade / harder material which will push AISC up per ounce a bit. Hopefully means that we end up with a better future mix. I would still recommend asking the company for a breakdown / explanation as there could be some other factors at work.
Othodelagery, you put my point over so much more succinctly. The only thing I really cannot understand is why the AISC is going to be up about $100 for the whole year’s production A much better explanation is required as it implies some big additional costs unplanned at the beginning of the year are to still come through in H2 2020. Are you able to enlighten me before I write to the company.
@JTS13: I don’t think the cash will have been used on Kouroussa. There may be some on long-lead time items but I suspect that would be minimal if at all. Rather I expect $10-15m has been used to reduce payables during the period. I wholeheartedly agree that this should be much better flagged / explained to give the market a better understanding - ultimately its reducing non-financial leverage and therefore sets the business up as a more stable entity. The other cash leakage will be central cost and interest. Hopefully it will all be clear in the interims which should be out in the next fortnight or so.
What will impact on the share price favourably? Let's assume the current favourable gold price environment remains as it has not been properly priced in for this share yet. The extensive drilling and the impressive results reported should lead to a significant life of mine extension announcement in Q4. It could be as much as 2 years. The recent broker note forecasted a 10p per share price rise for each year of extension to the LOM. If the current favourable gold price environment is maintained, then a Q3 confirmation of meeting the target of about 30Kozs would restore operational confidence and would be beneficial in showing up up the massive cash generation at Yanofalina. Any positive progress with the new mine and the Dugbe project shoudl also help , but the market seems to be ignoring both of these significant projects for the time being.
Lots of big buys and sells here at roughly 4/3 to the sells which seems to suggest that it wasn’t taken too well, however there’s still plenty keen to buy at these prices and the sp basically hasn’t budged so I’m still up 55% which I think we can all agree is the most important thing ;-) again I’m no fan of dan myself but without actual evidence and a definite lack of information I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt until we get the financials and by all means if it does look ‘shifty’ you’ll have my support and someone can have my shares
Interesting how sentiment changes in a day...
Main thing is that gold price maintains stability at a good level. Assuming stability there, new 12 month target here is 58-65p (down from 90-100p). It's hard to see what other material announcements can come out that will have a positive effect on SP here. Q3/4 figures should be better, but capex costs for $90 plant at Kouroussa will wipe out significant chunk of change. That's going to cut earnings and PE ratios which a lot of IIs will be paying interest into.
Long term keeps getting longer here :S
You know, it'd be amazing if they turned round and said that they'd invested 10 mill into Kouroussa. That'd shut us up pronto and we'd likely be like, yus! Developing the new site already. How exciting blah blah... Really hope that's what it is
I think it needs to be remembered, of course, that hum sell DORE not pure gold, so there is a cost to the final refinement, hence the discounted price to spot gold
Yes, it would seem to be good advice, email your question to the company.
They answered me and I let the board know.
Good write up on Vox.
Some really good rises today on my other gold and silver stocks.
Maybe Hummingbird will catch up before market closes.
Hi northman1
The expectations were that we would be net cash positive by end of July. All the numbers from January pointed that way.
My instant view this morning was.....why not? I don’t like to be negative, so make my own decisions and act accordingly. I am sorry that you’ve only just come back into profit here. I was fortunate to average down and top slice on the way up. However, what I did have this morning was 75% less of my holding. I have found DB to be a Lone Ranger in the lofty heavens. I mentioned earlier in the year that I was concerned about his big boys club attitude. I find it unnerving to not be able to give a decent explanation. I also rest uneasy about the Dugbe out the back door, knowing that the deal was lined up well in advance. I retain a small holding now, which was all profit and have deployed my funds to other businesses which I see as wanting to be open, honest and demonstrate could stakeholder comms and behaviour. Not that hum is a bad business, I’m happy to remain invested here, but not with my cash, just my profit.
G_G_G you obviously expecting everything to be fine during a global pandemic? I think the figures being what they are were explained and as for the gold price you know that the price obtained is at a discount to the gold price that we all see or follow?
Looks a little dodgy. Total gold poured too low. AISC too high. Gold price realised too low - The price was above $1700 for 11 out of 13 weeks. Let's not even get into Dugbe. Incredible how this company never surprises to the upside.
That's all I'm saying Ricky is it must have gone somewhere I just would like them to be more open about where this money goes. the numbers all sound good but the if the final cash/gold position is lower than it started it be nice to know where it went.
Ideally as you say we'd get mini balance sheet in the results stating if these trade payables had been reduced . At the end of the day it'll be great if we can generate 60 mill in next 4 months but if that isn't reflecting in the cash position because it all get swallowed by something we're not notified about /shown then that doesn't seem very good to me.
I have a the majority of my money invested here and have only recently come back into profit after several years so get a bit narky when sums don't add up.
The good news for me is that the results are at least out. No more scurrying around at 7am looking for Hum’s Quarterly Results RNS. Looking forward to a lazy morning tomorrow. ATB Cheerful
not quite sure how you have got to the conclusion that people don't like financials questioned and i'm pretty sure that the remark was aimed at shandy who de-ramps. But without further financial information from the company, it's just guess work as to why the figures don't seem to add up, which isn't helpful either. maybe contact the company as clearly the rest of us unsurprisingly don't know the answers either.
Paying down trade payables / lease liabilities, as well as other misc capex factors are all reasonable possibilities. Thanks for raising the thoughts
Just ironic that such a 'comprehensive' update seems to raise more questions than answer (at least for me). I know that many on this board don't like it when financials are questioned (one person even asserting this morning that people who attain such a view shouldn't be investing) but I always assumed financial performance was related to investment performance, lol.
Even after all these years, I still believe that HUM's got great potential. However, it's one of the most annoying stocks I've personally been in... We shouldn't need to wait for the interims to clarify the poor comms from this update. Not surprised there was a slight pull back this morning, despite gold and every possible macro factor imaginable going in our favour. Quite exasperating
Could be all sorts - Capex (including capitalised drilling costs) / paid down payables / Corporate costs (not in AISC) / Tax Bills etc etc to make the $11m difference
I agree that, overall, it never seems to surprise on the positive side but they did quote an ongoing profitability figure that is encouraging (I sold third of my holding prior to this but will re invest if it pulls back)
highly possible they payed down the trade and payables or lease liabilities ... without a balance sheet in your hands your calculation makes no sense ... bringing down debt is a good thing..safes interest payments
The cash generated is from sold gold (not poured gold as in some of the below calculations)
Clearly a large amount has highly likely gone on further reducing "trade payables" (as it did in Q4, from memory)
But DB should be indicating this. Explaining this.
Its not his private company! Its a shareholder owned company. And high time he recognised this fact.
OK Ricky so that's the contribution from sale of gold I get that. but cash has gone down not up and debt only dropped 8 million so where did it go.
19 mill contribution less 8 mill debt reduction = 11 million . However cash dropped from 8 to 6 million it didn't go up 11 million? So even if we go with your calculation we're missing 13 million?
LOL, spot hitting $2040 and the dollar now over 500 points down.
I would love to be on the trading floor when the DOW opens.
Very simple P&L all approx for Q2
Sales 30koz at $16.7k $50m
Cost of Sales = Opening stock plus production less closing stock (17+24-10) ($31m)
Contribution $19m
Deduct from contribution Corporate overheads / Drilling costs and Debt reduction to give a rough cash generation in the period (assuming depreciation is roughly equal to Capex)
@Twogoals: Likely after interims are posted. So perhaps a month from now?
It may be possible that something come out earlier in a proactive video, but those are usually more promotional than hard questioning.
Didn’t have you down as being short of balls
- on your abacus.
With these gold prices our friend Shandy running the company would make a profit.
ps. I wouldn’t apply, don’t think Dan is going anywhere.
JTS13 When is the an investor call?
Gonna need more beads on me abacus . Cant keep up with the speed gold price is going up.
Next level is $2200 then $2500. That will be some quarter results. WOW