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"As for market chatter, i speak to several traders who are in touch with the 2 "real" market makers on this stock, and in fact that is the only chatter - albeit its such a tiddly stock, no one really cares."
I'm happy to admit that I have no idea what's going on with the share price. I have never claimed to have the inside story on that. But on a very small illiquid share, it could be any (or a few) of a number of things. I also completely agree that communication is terrible, particularly regarding the Cassidy share issue. This is the nature of the risk we take and why we are getting the price that we are.
But there is no evidence whatsoever of an equity raise. None. I dont know who the "market makers" are on this share or where they "chatter". Anyone with half a million shares (often representing a full day's volume here) could substantially influence the price, so I suspect there are more than two. I recall a million and a half shares puts you in the top 20 shareholders. Where or why or how any of them would know of something as fundamental as an equity raise would be a matter for the authorities and I doubt it would be something for chats over bagels.
Ah BT - i knew you would bite. whats the score between us, 10-0 i think. Thanks for your daily philosphy lesson earlier, you should write trading books, would be a more profitable profession than you as a trader. Anyone who hands out lessons in trading is by definition a student, not a master - you really are that basic, hahaha Anyway same question to you, Why is HUM trading 15% below 2016 fund raise price, despite being in net cash? And quit your stalling now.
SwampM - no in fact I schooled those who used there "fantasy" maths on the ways and requirements to fund Koura. As for market chatter, i speak to several traders who are in touch with the 2 "real" market makers on this stock, and in fact that is the only chatter - albeit its such a tiddly stock, no one really cares. But seeing as you have called me out, please answer my question, why do you think the stock is trade 15% below the equity issue price from 2016, despite being in net cash on the b/s?? If you cant answer that, then you have no idea what is going on with this stock. Thanks.
Sorry Monkey, I can't buy that either. The only "market chatter" about an equity raise is coming from you. There is no equity raise spoken about anywhere that means anything. When the disingenuous one or two tried to shoehorn it into the conversation here a few weeks back it was blown out the water with the facts and maths.
@SwampM - I'm just telling it as I see it. ie what the market is pricing. My opinion on value of the stock is at this time irrelevant. The market chatter is that HUM will need to do an equity fund raise of some form to a) pay for equity portion of Koura, and b) possibly to pay Cassidy. Add in that SC is selling and reduced their limit price, which is entirely natural when left with a small position to clean up. There are therefore 2-3 overhangs of supply in the stock - happens all the time. The real problem is that there are no large natural buyers of HUM shares, on PIs and small funds. Its a digestion issue in the short term. Had DB and the BoD cultivated a culture of transparency and putting shareholder value first, then these supply issues would be less impactful. The proof is in the eating - HUM is net cash position, yet trade 15% BELOW the Yanfolila fund raise level in 2016 - everyone should ask how is that even possible??
That doesn't add up, monkey. HUM bought a mine for a song when the gold price was lower, agreed to pay in shares at a price 40% above the current share price and have achieved a mining licence for the project, all currently with zero cash in.....and you think these are reasons for a low share price? Nope. That's like a guy buying a car for half price and complaining that now he has to buy petrol.
Good theory, except that HUM does not have enough cash from Cora and ops to pay Cassidy, and to fund even the start of any mine build. My theory goes like this - Cassidy want more shares or cash, and HUM will need to sell more shares than they expected. Ergo the market sees this and expects big supply of shares and front runs this supply. All the buyers disappear and it becomes a simple supply / demand game. Dan Betts has cornered himself yet again, and confirms he's an idiot. Add SC overhang and that why you have a company with a £75m market cap/EV of sub £70m!!! Its all DB and his stupidity that has put HUM in this position.
BT - here’s my theory. SP has dropped well below the SP the Cassidy deal was valued at. I think Cassidy have asked to renegotiate the deal for cash instead of shares. It would be advantageous to HUM if they could get a lower price and no future overhang from sale of shares which would otherwise go to Cassidy and at one point would have been in profit. I think Hum are working on a revised deal and the sale of the Cora shares was to raise some of the cash required. Win win outcome if I am right. Cassidy get cash and no risk (they would otherwise have been holding HUm shares at a ‘loss’). Hum get a cheaper price for the asset and no future overhang. Pure speculation on my part but it makes perfect sense to me!
Lack of info and keeping investors in the dark is the stock and trade of Dan Betts and BoD. Dont hold your breath. SP now into the teens', does DB have a clue about how to run a mining (or any) company? er....... SC still on the offer and getting more desperate to close out their position.