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Seems no end to this drop
Funny old game :)
GDX is around 7% off where I think the bottom is (c25) so an interesting few weeks/months ahead for all things gold related.
Bit weird this has dropped when up 42% in the US, though both movements on next to no volume
Sorry meant to write q2 2023*
AK did a fair bit of it and so did another chap whose name i can't remember. AK seems keen to use the word steady a lot with regards the yanfolila recovery. I don't think we should expect fireworks here at all.
What i really want to know is how confident the board are that they have enough money to get to q2 2023. Like honestly how confident are they are what do they really see that picture looking like.
AK was asked about the weather and he basically said ' so far, so good '.
If the company makes it to gold pours q1 2023 and at that point has a nice blended aisc somewhere a whole lot lower than where we are now and gold is still 1750 ish then hummingbird at 175k ounces a year ( being a bit conservative ) is surely a huge cash machine.
Even if it has say 130m debt ? it would be making around 21m dollars a quarter with a 500 dollar margin on 175k ounces a year.
Guvvi,
Thank you for sharing notes.
Interesting that 100k was mentioned re Yan.
Was it AK doing most of the talking. If so , what was your opinion. He spoke well at the AGM and did give me confidence that he will āsortā Yan out.
BB2
Agri,
Thank you for notes.
The rainy season is typically June to Sept with most rain normally during July and Aug. Really do hope that this passes without major issues on Q3 production.
Thanks for sharing your notes, Guvvi.
BW
You use Tradingview too Bonker99, it has the HUMRF ticker, stick it in your watch list panel
Tiny volumes is interesting too... If 24k shares moves the needle circa 40% then what does an order for 100k do
yes big jump but low volume (28k shares) , let's hope it continues tomorrow
OK, well that's a giant jump alright - interesting.
Where do you see that?
US listing is up 42% to 15 cents or 13p in real money...
"There is now a proper plan for an underground mine at yanfolila which would take about 6 months to make through an existing pit"
OK, that caught my attention ...
I submitted a question regarding the boards confidence on what level of solvency in the run up to q2 2023 but it didnāt get asked.
IMO all our concerns are round debt and actually reaching this stage now.
Here are my notesā¦ sorry if they lack a bit of context but Iām not a legal secretary!
Exploration budget going forward is only 2 millions dollars. 2023 has no budget for now. 2022 has been about joining up huge amounts of data collected from various projects before the next phase. I got the impression there was definitely scope not to spend much going forward if needed.
They are still processing sample results from assays at kourousssa.
Q2 has shown steady improvement over q1. The team are still making steady improvements. He used the word steady an awful lot !
Yanfolila is aiming for 100k a year again maybe from next year. He didnāt clarify whether this was connected to the long story about the underground mine plan. There is now a proper plan for an underground mine at yanfolila which would take about 6 months to make through an existing pit. He viewed this as a positive as any capex has cash flows against it quite quickly. I.e after 6 months. It was said costs for this ā will not be too high ā. No indication whether this would be done soon mind you they have a lot on their plate already.
Dugbe is subject to weekly strategic review meetings. They gave nothing away on this front.
Kouroussa first area for mining is pit 4 which has good grades at shallow depth.
Yup - economies of scale at Dugbe - IIRC, its IRR is only so low because much of the gold is weighted towards the end of LoM, the complete opposite to Kouroussa's first three years, hence Kouroussa's stellar IRR.
Forcasted ASIC for Kor if I recall is around 1200
Re dugbe... There's a lot of moving parts that affect the the AISC and grade over volume is possibly the biggest.. Dugbe DFS is aimed at 5mtpa processing plant to produce circa 280k ounces where as yanfolila is 1.4 mtpa to produce 100k ounces.
Yanfolila is also landlocked where as dugbe is around 70 km from the Atlantic ocean.
I asked 3 questions on the call just now:
> Dugbe has a low AISC profile of US$1,005/Oz. What is the corresponding forecast AISC for Kouroussa?
> Second question the indicative g/t at Dugbe is substantially lower than Yanfolila, yet has a guided $1005/oz AISC. so how is it possible to be so low when its resource/tonne is much lower?
> Third have there been any severe weather incidents between April and June (the wet season)?
Justin didn't ask my first 2 questions (grr) but there was a positive answer to the 3rd. No there hasn't been any disruptive weather and moreover HUM are prepared for bad weather eventuality.
So at least we now know that leaves on the line won't stop the Hummingbird express in Q2 2022!!