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I was trying to add to my holdings this morning but not even getting limit orders filled ended up doing 3 x 5000 with the associated dealing costs , and then it went up
It is not a ramp to forecast 150k sales - this is management information , potential cost of 7.50 on 450 is management information as is cost reduction with volume - perhaps you should read the existing management information. If you could refer to a pie in the sky forecast that does not include management figures already released. 55k to 150k you would have called pie in the sky , 85k to 150k you 'may' call pie in the sky
cheque my point is best to nag the management to produce regular factual information, rather than silly pie in the sky calculations/ramps.
no sh** sherlock
What did I say, no comms so the price falls.
Why do you think most investors look short term , if I looked forward here for 1 year I would not be interested , but looking ahead to 2024 makes it very interesting as most yields are around 5% for dividend this would yield a great deal more based on incoming price now , although the SP would be higher so the yield for new investors would not be the same
So, not a year or two but at least three?
That's more realistic but that shouldn't be the short-term focus, especially for potential investors.
so nothing for y/e 22 or y/e 23 but possible for y/e 24 at 2/5 profit
No , I'm working onroughly 2/5 divi
You all seem to be forgetting over the next few years we have another asset to prove up and bring into production. Surely this will swallow up most of the profit over the next few years.
goleftmassa - I also think more than the figure you mentioned is needed for that divi , your figure is achievable with just over 250k tons with 55 AUD ton and slight reduction in cost per volume as advised
"As for a 2-3p dividend in a "year or two" we'd need to be making $7.2-10.8m AUD in profit. People are getting way to ahead of themselves and distracting potential investors to the actual positive story playing out here. "
What do you think we will be making at 450K tons in a few years , the growth curve is there , the market is there and it is perfectly feasible that in 2025 a dividend of this order may be paid
Why would you expect the fees to change? HMI has set out previously in Q&As that these are generally fixed costs and therefore will not rise with increase revenue.
Anyone that has bothered to dig into the accounts properly will notice they've actually dropped since Mark Heyhoe left the business. Also, the board costs as a whole aren't unreasonable relative to the market (though I think they were too high in the initial growth stage).
As for a 2-3p dividend in a "year or two" we'd need to be making $7.2-10.8m AUD in profit. People are getting way to ahead of themselves and distracting potential investors to the actual positive story playing out here.
T1995 - agree with that sentiment. I've been invested for a similar amount of time. An over-optimistic use of the 350-450kt numbers is a failure... which ultimately did ramp the SP - Investors, I think, became fed up of that over-promise / under-deliver axis on the pace of growing total sales, in reality its taken 4 years to get here rather than the maybe 2 years I feel some of the communications suggested at OR maybe just investors hoped for...
My (probably rose-tinted!) reflections are that the slower growth is more beneficial in the long-term to grow confidence in the the product organically (pun intended). The 150kt forecast for 2022 seems both realistic and encouraging given Harvest delivered the 2021 target - clearly they have a number of 'substantial orders' this year already that gives them the confidence to quote this level. If Harvest meet these targets and deliver some 2021 accounts that don't have ludicrous directors/consultants fees - I'm sure confidence in the management will grow and the SP likewise.
Just for clarity, I’ve been invested since 2018 so I’m not some newbie with blinkers on to the past. Think the board have carried out the majority of things correctly. What investors didn’t realise back then myself included was how much work was needed with the farmers to convince them to buy as we had a new product. Ultimately it was overvalued at 18.5p back then but that isn’t a fault of management that’s the fault of investors like myself, since then I’ve averaged down and am in profit. This business now well and truly heading in the right direction
Lol “heyhoe was responsible for the most disastrous ramping of the share and was just shifty“ some decent facts would be nice
t1995 heyhoe was responsible for the most disastrous ramping of the share and was just shifty. as mentioned years ago, his raison d etre seems to have been ripping off investors by misleading so called forecasts.
What’s wrong with mentioning what heyhoe said in an interview?
quoting heyhoe now he s left the company even less rewarding than ever. t1995 apology for mentioning please.
Mark heyhoe said in crux interview- “to build the capacity to reach 320kt is less than $1m” he’s referring to crushers to crush the powder and the infrastructure. So my guess is somewhere around 800,000 -900,000 USD to add on another 320kt of capacity.
Would it name_mike? , how much do you think? to get to 450k
That would require large capex to increase production capacity. Hopefully this could be achieved through profit by then.
*would
At this 76% growth rate, which I wouldn’t expect to stay in that ballpark figure as farmers and everyone around them see results and come back to buy in much larger quantities, we will hit 450kt 2024
Nice work chique. Realistic in my view we hit 400kt in next 3/4 years. In that case whatever the value your stock is now should ruffly be returned in dividends every year for the next 100…
I agree this isn’t gambling this is a proper business with great fundamentals. Patience to hold is the key, which most people don’t have. I won’t make that mistake.