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'....how on earth they managed to make it through H2 without a raise or being completely down to the bone....'
Considering the cash position end H1/23....... the revenue in H2/23........ and the cash position FY/23, I'd be asking 'where has the money gone?
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'...last year started at 200000T, to 120000T, to 70000T and actually came in at 34000T.'
No, it didn't come in at 34000T!
It started last year at 200tonnes as 'Targeting invoiced sales of 200,000 tonnes in 2023' - INVOICED sales!
It came in at '...of which 28,707 were invoiced in the same calendar year...'
The 34,880tonnes is 'orders' not 'invoiced sales'.
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I was trying to work out how on earth they managed to make it through H2 without a raise or being completely down to the bone but it looks like a combination of (i) considerable inventory build up as of June 30th and (i) directors must be continuing to withhold their remuneration.
Glad there's some light at the end of the tunnel for holders and GL - thanks for responding to my posts
Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1041076/harvest-minerals-sets-70-000-tonne-order-target-for-2024-1041076.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1033183/harvest-minerals-low-costs-and-organic-merits-position-fertiliser-for-demand-upsurge-1033183.html
I think the main positive here is that they have already had 7k tonnes ordered in the first 6 weeks of the year which is much more promising especially as peak season is in the 2nd half of the year. 2023 was awful there’s no doubt but does look like things are improving and cash position is ok which is why the share price is rising. High risk but could be high reward.
NicetoMichu thanks for your reply, I wasn't trying to deramp here I was just trying to make sense of it all having loosely followed HMI in the past.
I get that the share price has fallen dramatically but this update surely in terms of production is still a humongous downer? Q3 said orders to date were 40000T with 30000T expected in Q4 yet actual full year comes in at 34000T! That's because 8500 tonnes of orders were 'cancelled by clients in the last quarter of the year due to unforeseen operational and financial issues with such clients.'
So in other words orders in Q4 were barely a few thousand. That's a mad drop off.
Admittedly the cash position is the one positive but it's hard to take that 70000T guidance seriously when as I pointed out last year started at 200000T, to 120000T, to 70000T and actually came in at 34000T.
$400k!
One third of the $600k is colateral for the R$5,000,000 loan (March 2023).
Good Look
600k
Cash position less than $400k?
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Still high risk but the cash position is far better than I expected
I've added slightly to my fun punt
I was wrong. they did issue a ‘it all didn’t happen’ RNS.
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Hence why the s/p has fallen from 10p ish to 1p ish in the last 12 months, Chris.. (and 17p ish to 1 p ish in the last 18 months, Chris)
At 1p ish s/p this was priced as likely to go under in 2024 imho.. if that's not the case now - and given after a truely awful year it has cash in the bank still now, and it a mine that can be producing long, long after you and I are gone - then a market cap of 1.75 m ish gbp here around now seems small to me.. and so, towards further putting my money where my mouth is, I did a top up this arbo..
A high risk play still , I fully get... but I can fairly readily see a path for this s/p - potentially - going back towards 3p thru 24 now...
IMHO & DYOR
Correct me if i'm wrong but didn't they start the year with 200000T invoiced sales guidance, which was then reduced to 120000T invoiced sales after Q2 results, which was then reduced to 70000T orders (not invoiced) after Q3 and then we actually got 34000T invoiced sales and 29000 full orders?!
And now guidance for 2024 is 70000T orders (not invoiced)?
I'm obviously missing something so would love to be enlightened.
The RNS looks ok, better than was expected. I may buy bk a starting position in the next month or 2 personally. Still high risk play though.
In the circumstances I'm relieved and ok with all that's in this RNS.... and think this company can turn itself around fairly decently thru 24 .. (and my fear of this going under in 24 has abated significantly now too)
A decent to strong s/p rally this arbo wouldn't surprise me.. especially as the fall from 17 ish peak to sub 1p - it potentially going under baked into that sub 1p price too - was an enormous fall by any standard
Instead of going under in 24, hmi.l may well - hopefully - turn itself decently around
IMHO & DYOR
It costs money to release RNS’s?
We need to see the companies financial position and FY 2024 forecasts
It would seem strange that you haven't taken your own advice?
I'm down massively on this but why not one snippet of news since October? Anyone know please? Is it a case I wonder that the stuff they're digging up is just dust?
Listen to Smally, he's been right 95% of the time.
I wish I had listened to him 100% then I wouldn't be in a hole ,thankfully only a shallow one.
Don't waste your time waiting for Burton or Swingy to comment because everything they say is total BS.
Get out now and take a loss rather than the whole lot
Bfd,
I've just realised, you've come back T4G/Clot1.
So to welcome you back a response to your 'nonsense':
‘The Q3 RNS states 70k tonnes for 2023, with the vast majority being invoiced in year.’
No, it doesn’t state that.
It states ‘….the majority of which is expected to be invoiced….’.
Strange how you forgot the word ‘expected’.
‘It also states that 10k carry over from 2022 has been invoiced and the majority of the outstanding. 22k tonnes would also be invoiced.’
No, it doesn’t state that.
Assuming you’re referring to part of the 33kt from 2022, then it states ‘….10,000 tonnes of this product has been delivered…’ so it’s delivered, not ‘invoiced’ as you stated.
Also, assuming the ‘22k tonnes’ you refer to should be 23k tonnes (33k minus 10k) ‘would also be invoiced’ – no it doesn’t state that. It states ‘although we forecast that not all 33,000 tonnes will be delivered before year end.’ So again. it’s delivered, not ‘invoiced’ as you stated. Don’t ignore the word ‘forecast’, and FYI, the 33kt was actually invoiced in 2022 (Dec).
‘There is also the outstanding money they are due to receive from the court case.’
Well, it’s very nearly 12 months since the ‘positive court ‘ruling’ RNS which if you read it just states Harvest ‘will proceed with recovery action which we expect is the last stage in this process.’ Expect?
12 months later – nothing!
‘So there is plenty of reason for an RNS’
I somehow doubt they would RNS ‘it all didn’t happen’?
Good Look
Re - Smally that is
You’ll not be far off admittedly, you never are. If they are running at a loss which they would be I’d like to see what they are doing to keep the lights on.. what facilities are available, there are disposable assets.
There is the other risk which I was reading an article on which considered the possibility that growers simply were not liking the product enough to replace orders. The drop in orders here do feel extreem.
'nonsense' is it?
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Smalley that is complete nonsense
The Q3 RNS states 70k tonnes for 2023, with the vast majority being invoiced in year.
It also states that 10k carry over from 2022 has been invoiced and the majority of the outstanding. 22k tonnes would also be invoiced.
There is also the outstanding money they are due to receive from the court case.
So there is plenty of reason for an RNS
Is there any point in a RNS?
Have a read of the Q3/23 RNS, that surely tells all regarding FY23 sales doesn't it?
Are you expecting something better?
No point in 2024 guidance note. Wasn't 2023 guidance 200,000t, revised down to 120,000t, revised down to 70,000t......?
So that's >30kt for FY2023 and 70kt 2024 guidance? IMHO
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