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Unfortunately retail was not in good shape before Covid 19, but HFD appeared to have a strategy, however now with a massive post pandemic recession on the way retail spending will probably collapse...the move to online retail from the likes of Amazon is going to make retail painful for all those with physical locations and big overheads to cover, as for repairs and servicing the competition is fierce from the likes of Kwik Fit and many others...its going to take a miracle to turn this super tanker around thanks to Covid 19 and the new reality out there......... Adyor!
The market doesn't like any uncertainty in forward looking statements, and with dividend suspended it's unnerving investors..I can see this treading water for some considerable time..glad I got out on the bounce a few months ago but will keep this on the radar until the retail picture becomes a little clearer..GL those still holding.
Wyndrum, I keep quiet here as I have little to offer. Overall I'm at a small loss with HFD but I am happier to be in profit on my last top-up. I did wonder whether Halfords, who've apparently done well during lockdown could EVEn be a weather vane for other shares in the same boat. A <10% dip this morning, and now settling would have just about been worth selling and buying back for, but at a risk. You're correct about lazy / scared / inertia. But, if one's made a bad decision already, it's easy to wonder if the next decision is going to be any better. I read this on another board yesterday, one that I'm looking into:
'I sold several million XXX at 0.9p after years of holding them to get bigger in here as I thought YYY was gonna go crazy a few years back but it didnt... XXX is now 12p and I'd be retired now at 41 years old if I'd have held on.' – So sometimes things could've / do come good in the end for the lazy ones. It's tricky isn't it..
Anyway I'm in no rush. I don't need my money out for 5 years so happy to stick with Halfords and am reassured by your own apparent contentment at staying put.
completely agree wyndrum, results were about as expected but was expecting a much more upbeat future outlook. Demand for their products this year is probably going to as high as it ever will be and their three scenarios range from a loss of -10m to a 20m profit. No mention of e-bikes, e-scooters and camping. No mention of how they are adapting to the new trends and demand for these items which is their biggest growth opportunity right now.
I'm still holding, will see how price reacts in the next few days
Pooley, I think it will be less bumpy than you imagine. The thing that struck me as unduly negative, was their 3 forecasts, with the best one being not that great. It seems to hinge around bike sales good but less margin, motor repair/service good but had fallen dramatically in lockdown but starting to pick up. I think new car sales are likely to suffer over the next 12 months which means more used cars staying in the system which will need repair/servicing MOTs etc. So I see HFD doing very well in fact through this over coming months as well as bikes. I was also surprised may have missed it but no reference to E Bikes, and little forward guidance on the improved margins that they have introduced (which was encouraging). The whole report seemed to gloss over as much good news as they could but accentuated the negative. This strikes me as very odd but I think something (good for the SP) is a foot. Now is not the time to sell imo
Agreed, it’s a bumpy road ahead but fundamentally the business is a solid one with loads of potential in the next few years, great first 13 weeks considering the climate, it was really only a collect and repair offer you couldn’t enter the shop! And availability issues started in May. 100k bikes in the next few weeks will set up nicely for summer trading. Right decision to hold off the divi, put more money into staffing to deliver those high margin services. I’ve invested in halfords for a long time, Matt Davis the CEO took this approach 7 years ago and it paid off massively. They have the chance to make some real progress this year. Good luck all
Absolutely sensational entry point for new investors and a magical opportunity to top up.
Bike and scooter sales are things that most people want to sit on and try before purchase so retail wont be affected as much by online alternatives.
In China, electric scooter sales soared during and after the pandemic as people don't want to travel by bus/tube over short journeys. So expect a large increase in Sales, along with normal bikes which is already happening, not only for commuting but for general increase in people wanting to get fit when they are frightened of doing that now in crowded enclosed gyms.
New car sales will also be badly hit so expect a large rise in spare/replacement motor parts sales and general car sprucing up etc.
Think the market has concentrated way too much on the conservative forward guidance which is just a standard statement for companies now in these times. Definitely one of the safer investments on the market.
Hold for Gold. Complete no brainer to me if you can sit back and watch it grow over the next 6-12 months.
I thought the results were solid with a vry, very bright future!