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I agree entirely, Aspen. If I were them, I'd wring it out to the last day, but personally I'm sure they'll take up the option.
Lily will no doubt have lots fingers in pies and as you say, £50m in HEMO is nothing to them at all. It will make a huge difference to the SP if they implement an agreement.
Well we will know by the 11/04, which after taking into account Easter holidays and today, leaves only 23 trading days remaining for EL news. Personally, I think a deal is more likely than not.
Fair point, well clarified. Sorry for the confusion, but I meant that they had declined the offer of the option within each of the two option periods. I never meant that they'd closed the door on it for good.
Stonk:
".............they have not taken up the option."
Sorry, but that is not the same as "they've turned it down twice already" which was your earlier post.
The have had the option during two negotiated finite periods of time. During each period, they have not taken up the option.
I really cannot make it any clearer.
They didn't take it, because they were still working on it. There is a pandemic about you know that has caused a few delays, not because Lily didn't want it. in my opinion this is the negotiation period and if lily had said no we would have heard this by now. Lily said mid last year they had 5BN to invest in small MC pharma, if they throw 50m at Hemo that's 1% of there budget. when you read a few RNS's back Hemo said there was a delay while they choose the best candidate, then the next update was they had found the right candidate to take forward and looked forward to progressing to the next phase with global co. you really think they would walk away after all this hard work to let another giant get one over on them. I don't think so.
Hi again Stonk, without being sarcastic (again), when you have read them and have found the bits where E.L have refused the deal twice, just give me a shout.
Thanks
Sorry, June and October (with the last one expiring end of December).
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HEMO/cdx-development-agreement-further-extension-bb6qrt9wzm9nzpk.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HEMO/cdx-development-agreement-extension-pcqhpf6kk9174vi.html
There have had to be two mutually-agreed extensions to the option period (end of October and end of December). I'd argue they were only renegotiated because EL had declined to take up the option in each period, so yes - they have declined to take up the option twice (i.e. once for each period). One could argue for the sake of semantics that they effectively turn down the option every single day, but my point stands that they did not take up the option within each of the two agreed option periods.
Rutends, Hemo isn't just going to collapse.
Anyway, the dreaded 'death spiral' is a slow painful process that plays out over a couple of years and it's the finance house that ring the final bell for last orders, when and only when, they have rinsed their profits dry.
The s.p is 300% up on 18 months ago. I'm down 30%, but I have patience.
Come on Hemo!
Hi Stonk, E.L have not turned down the offer to progress with CDX a single time. There has been delays due to a global pandemic, but that is all.
This isn't a sarcastic comment in any way - I suggest you read the Rns' regarding the collaboration with Hemo and E.L.
Certain p.i's( including myself) expected E.L to have signed on the dotted line by now, but it has transpired that 'we' where jumping the gun a bit and Hemo and E.L are simply working within a timeframe that was set out when the collaboration began.
This is becoming a **** show. The derampers who called the CLN 'death spiral financing' are being proved right.
@dhub in response to "Which idiots are selling at these prices???? Would they still sell if it went to 3p. Unbelievable!!!"
Perhaps they are selling now because they think it might go to 3p and are cutting losses. I believed it would get to where it is now so offloaded at 9.1p when the CLN was announced for that very reason.
The company still has a great portfolio of products in the pipeline but phase 1,2.3 trials generally take years for them all to complete before you can apply for a license any monetise them. Each successful stage completion for each product will give an upward surge in the sp with the successful completion of the first phase 3 usually being the biggest mover. So there is a possibility that HEMO can turn it around with some good news on those lines and I think the long term success of the company is promising as the CLN can provide the funding but while a CLN is in play, dilution is an ever present threat.
In addition remind yourself that the highest price Mint need to convert at for the first tranche is 8.4375p (RNS 3/2) I imagine they want it to go up beyond that to make some good money but that conversion price will be a drag on the SP even without some amazing news until all the or most of that £12m is converted.
If more tranches are taken the the prospects for a big win for shareholders staying the course dwindle. You can do well trading this as this will swing a lot between news propelling the pipeline and news on conversions but holding on long term in the hope of making big money is a strategy many will have given up on. Good luck to everyone that is doing it, I did that elsewhere and lost a most of my investment.
This is not a "lifestyle company" so I am continuing to watch because the products look good and in the CAR-T case without a clinical rival but I remain out until I see an opportunity to dip in when I have some cash available to free up and I will only be trading HEMO from here and not investing for a long haul.
Which idiots are selling at these prices???? Would they still sell if it went to 3p. Unbelievable!!!
B1ll It just seems to be following that pattern from previous. Maybe there are some trades to show and they have been forward sold again. Just wondering as to why we seem to be marched down again.
Why do you think that Dan?.
I personally don't think it would be good business to convert another batch when the s.p is where it is.
First of all, the volumes are that low that it would be difficult for anyone to offload large blocks shares (unless it was pre-arranged between two parties) and just as difficult to drip feed smallish blocks without decimating s.p to ridiculous levels.
If the previous batch was forward sold as some suggest, it looks like Mint where happy to take around 25-30% profit.
If another batch is converted without any news, there is no way that level of profit could be achieved.
All just my opinion ofcourse, but I think Mint will be a little more patient.
Come on Hemo!
Would agree...this feels like more CLN conversions happenign.
I know they said no immediate plans to convert but still think another CLN on the way.