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Mr I We’re all frustrated mate, you’re right in that Hemogenyx is seriously undervalued. However their IND application is imminent and once submitted their timeline to the clinic is confirmed, they change from being an R&D preclinical company to a fully fledged clinical company and will have a market capitalisation to match. No traders will stop the rerate once the herd arrives. Very nearly there!
JHFH ... You are truly a wealth of information and totally factual. I just wish I had even 10k spare as they looks like a perfect buying zone before next week.
This looks to be going blue again.
Morning all, MrI, Genedrive is on the radars of a few of the well known share pumpers so its being traded. Hemo is not, its excluded from almost all polls and its rare anyone else will bring it up. GDR was one of the big Covid stocks from a few years ago and has alot of holders who missed the exit and are still generating noise and volume. As much as I might like the company they still produce a physical product with a finite market. Any contract they win no matter how big is never going to translate to profits, they have manufacturing costs and lets say they win a £50m contract, how much of that is up front? They have some good tests, the NHS have bought some, but there is a limit to how many units they can manufacture and sell without fund raising to scale and how much is profit? BUT they sell a product, its approved, there is stuff in the media, its easy to pump and get people excited.
Compare to Hemogenyx. Nothing yet approved by the FDA, no patients yet to show cured, nothing licenced yet. Nothing in the media, no doctors talking about it, nothing in the Pharma publications about CAR-T etc. Very hard to pump people up and get excited about.. But lets look at the potential, CBR, CAR-T, CDX, Hu-PHEC, they are all Intellectual Property, Vlad wont sell 1000 units of CBR, he will sub licence the platform for a given condition such as Measles or Monkeypox or HIV to another pharma. There wont be any overhead or scaling up of production required, it will be an upfront payment, milestone payments and some sort of profit share if it goes commercial. Pretty much all profit for Hemogenyx, and he can do that many many times with CBR, CDX and the like. Potential returns here on any licencing is huge because its all income without any great associated expenditure.
That link that Chris posted (Thanks Chris!) was great, it shows that we are at the bottom but things are moving and the money being thrown around is massive:
https://www.geekwire.com/2022/biotech-stocks-are-getting-crushed-but-industry-insiders-say-theres-reason-for-optimism/
Here the average upfront of licencing deals last year was $25mil:
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis-insights/licensing-deals-rack-2021
"But billion-dollar up-front deals are very much a feature of recent times, and are mostly found in the oncology space."
It will take ONE licencing deal to land for Hemogenyx to receive upfront payments potentially multiples of the current mCap. We dont know what discussions are going on behind the scenes, all we know is Vlad has stated in the past he was speaking to other interested parties about CDX, we know he wanted to protect CBR before he started talking to potential partners and we know he is coming to the UK on Monday:
"Our presentation at the Immuno-Oncology Summit Europe 2022 provides the Company with a great opportunity to inform the scientific, industrial and investment communities about our achievements and increase the Company's visibility globally."
HFH ... That is why I am so frustrated. This share price should be at least 3 or 5 times its current price but it continually gets ignored. I see blocks of £10k, £20k or even £50k into GDR with limited upside and this company is so undervalued it is a joke. If the science is proven (which we all believe it will be), this could be a billionaire pound company with the 2 or 3 proven products.
I know Vlad doesnt care about marketing but purely as an investor, it quite depressing watching this being ignored every day with hardly any buys while there is consistent activity in other biotech. Look at Myhealthchecked today ... 15% up for no reason at all. I just wish one of Zak's predictions would come true and this would at least get to 4p this month
Mr India I got the market capitalisation based upon peer level companies. However I was being conservative in my estimation, as although I haven’t looked since this years downturn the peer level average Mcap for companies with one candidate having achieved proof of concept was around $150m.
HFH ... I also share your sentiment here. I really hope HEMO and Vlad listen to you and start executing on a marketing and partnership plan. How did u come to a £50m mcap? Is there any comparisons out there or analysts out there that have predicted a valuation based on the IND ... I think this may be what investors are waiting for (and of course the actual announcement on the clinical stage progressing)?
Chris that article validates exactly what Vlad has been saying ‘when we deliver on the science value to the SP will follow’. HEMO are employing CAR-T specialists, have CAR manufacturing capability and enough runway to prove clinical proof of concept. I firmly believe the FDA PIND is now complete and that Hemogenyx are very confident that IND will be approved when submitted and all things being equal clinical trials should follow for 20 patients shortly after. When will IND be submitted? My take is either this month or if not almost certainly next month. CAR-T will be the inflection point we’ve been waiting for. It will substantially rerate the SP. To what level we don’t know but we do know the treatment is very expensive, over $400,000 a patient for sure. In short, Hemogenyx really are on the verge of becoming clinical and that alone should see a market capitalisation of in excess of £50m.
What we need to happen now in parallel is Vlad to get out and spread the message of their scientific advances, as he is doing in London next week. We need Dr Walts to get his arse in gear for more capital, collaborations and licensing agreements (not only for CAR-T but CDX and CBR as well), we need Hemogenyx to employ a PR company and we also need them to redesign and take over the running of their website.
The future looks extremely bright BUT we now need Vlad to step up and deliver. If I had one message to Vlad it would be no more delays it’s time to walk the walk! I believe he will, and soon. GLA.