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Noob67 unfortunately nothing too exotic on the rare gas side from me, I was a total oilman back in the days. a lot of exotic locations though, and some mad ones (running field operations in active war zones anyone?) - hence my early retirement. My mind and body needed a break.
Will go through the link you shared - thank you.
Nice knowledge sharing deep blue.
Any experience of rare gas?
Particularly interested in what we find,
DME were wild cat drilling and found and little bit of what was not expected, possibly Argon( but my memory...)
This Report is on the first DME drill looks to be fairly short and lot of information to fill, have any thoughts on it?
We should get an equivalent on the first drill, 3 drill X3 goes, taking a month mid June on the first one.
"On seeps (HC vs He), the difference is timescale. HC "kitchen" are generally no longer active today, therefore likely seeps will originate from a reservoir that has containment integrity ISSUE, unlike He which is still very much actively being generated and continue to migrate to this date. seeps therefore, in the case of He, is very welcomed!"
Its good to share experiences here and like all experiences, they are unique therefore no rebuttals. Let me share from my limited work before i retired from E&P in 2014.
On seismic and subsurface in general;
1. I see where you are coming from regarding timelines. Ive come across many proposals from seismic companies proposing work (sub 500 km2 area for example - usual interpretation, rock physics, well tie in etc) and the timeline can range anything from 4-9 months. For example, when the license work commitment has legs in it, there is no rush therefore time is less an issue and management focuses on cost and deliverables.
2. on the flipside, having been involved in too many field development and re-developments (the latter is more onerous especially the giant fields in the North), i have also seen workscopes that combines full seismic re-interpretation, full AVO, sim to seis and back, 4D geomechanics, HM driven by 4D seismic - all completed in less than a year, with results to show until today on both sides on the border. these were not one off and I have repeated these across most continents with 40+ field operations worldwide. These are generally results oriented driven by management who wants both great results and at speed successfully. availability of cash, and / or aligned commercial model with supply chain generally allows this.
On seeps (HC vs He), the difference is timescale. HC "kitchen" are generally no longer active today, therefore likely seeps will originate from a reservoir that has containment integrity, unlike He which is still very much actively being generated and continue to migrate to this date. seeps therefore, in the case of He, is very welcomed!
On faults healing, plenty of salt deposits bearing in mind the hot springs around.
nevertheless - risks are risk. until that drill bit hits a He reservoir, there are real risk and how we manage our own risks and money is not for me to address. (we all have different personal circumstances)
For avoidance of doubt, I have been in this share since IPO and have kept every single share i bought - all 1 million and a bit. DYOR
USA. up 31%
Sorry should have said infill map was the same, but improved by line colour changes..
I struggled with the white and yellow lines..
Interesting post, have been waiting for your reply, just now need Deepbluediver to reply..
Top posts :)
My apologies for missing out the infill seismic programme in my earlier post. A minor comment on the infill seismic, looking at the timeline, they started in early February with drilling scheduled for Mid-May. 3 and half months to do everything you need ahead of drilling (acquire seismic, do the processing, QC the data, velocity modelling, review static corrections, interpret the new seismic, integrate the legacy data, do the depth conversion, calculate prospective resources from the new data, peer review of the results, etc.), that looks super speedy to me for 3 and half months. You wonder a little bit on how things are being done in such tight timeframe.
A more important point. When talking about the infill seismic campaign, they mention it’s intended to provide improved resolution over the targets that have already been identified. And so, sounds like we already have some nice prospects there, we just need some extra info to optimize drilling locations. Well, as I mentioned in an earlier post, without the in-fill lines, you would hardly call these "prospects" at all, because with this little data the structures could be completely different, yet they are presenting to us prospective resources that have been calculated on the initial seismic, the legacy data.
The conventional way of doing this would have been to acquire the infill seismic lines first (if not a 3D), and then do a CPR, only after sufficient seismic is there you then present to people prospective resources that have been calculated on something that you can more confidently call “prospects”. So why they haven’t done it? Perhaps some logistical and operational issues. However, there is also another way to see this, a clever marketing strategy. It’s possible that additional data might highlight other targets, however it is also more likely that the “prospects” will became smaller and smaller, especially in this geological context these structures could be a lot more fragmented by numerous faults that you simply don’t see from the initial 4 by 4km grid of the legacy data. And so, without the integration of additional seismic, you may maximise your chances of showing people the biggest possible prospective resources at this stage, even though the interpretation is very uncertain, but not many people will question that. (PS, the top reservoir map from the April presentation is still the same as the old one, just different colour scheme and infill lines)
A final remark on the seeps, a lot of people get really excited by this. Yes, it proves there is helium in the area, a good indication no doubt, but if you compare it with oil and gas seeps, there are lots of examples where people drilled next to oil seeps at surface but failed to find commercial accumulations, and in many cases found nothing.
Interesting stuff no doubt, but I remain quite cautious too
Ah, that's her Dr. Danabalan in the pic.. good thesis. I just checked my linkedIn, I didn't realise she is already my 1st connection. i must have met her in my prior life!
Good read posted by D-Geeman,
Agree and I think its good that you raise this - very healthy for our BB. some comments:
"I have seen prolific gas traps in tilted fault blocks with very recent structuration and big faults extending up to the surface similarly to this area (eg. Tazerka and Oudna light oil fields in Tunisia), but they are not that common and rely on significant present day active charge. "
- yes, the He is actively still being generated therefore still migrating today in the overburden.
Indeed on the other prospect, I would not drill it myself (at the point of the report being written) but they have 2D infills already being worked as a plan (pre drill) as Dai2belt had mentioned and you have implied. Personally and in my prior life, I would not allow drilling to commence until a complete 3D has been done, and I think a low frequency work would give better insight on top of conventional geoscience workscope. but I am not a geologist like you who will know the subject better.
With DM himself an experienced exploration geologist by background, supported by Lorna an E&P senior geologist, and likely the original explorers (Durham and Oxford bods) who are also geoscientist by background, i am quietly confident they would do the right thing on the prospecting side.
I will get a bit worried after discovery and appraisal moving to development as they will need someone with strong track record on development in their team which they don't have today (which is not an issue to hire later). but that's a later opportunity for them. (I might polish my CV, haha).
I wish management would allow a tempered Q&A with shareholders, it would be great (DM and team if you are reading this, we promise our questions will be constructive!)
ps: as an aside seeing you are a geologist, have you read Gluyas' tomb - United Kingdom Oil and Gas Fields: 50th Anniversary Commemorative Volume? its huge but worth it.
page 13, yet again much improved/sharper slide showing 2D infill lines and original,
Reading your post then looking at the directions and positioning of the infill lines adds to the bigger picture, certainly learning from your posts..
What I like about this article is how they give importance to Avanti’s management. I love the Avanti chart and of course that on a read across HE1 are not even on the first step! And that’s why we don’t get a mention? Shhh...
That document you are looking at is from November of last year - HE1 is doing new infill 2D across the prospects before the exploration drills to be followed by appraisal and 3D seismic projects after.
The diagrams in the document are from the previous seismic images that HE1 reprocessed to use alongside their own new up-to-date seismic program.
All this has also been mentioned by the CEO multiple times via regular updates.
So actually everything you thought they should be doing, they are!
Maybe they have not divulged all the survey results due to possible competition or local greed. This is Africa. Then again it's not West Africa. WaWa: West Africa wins Again!
Well known CSM Engineer's saying
I replied to one of your other posts recently along the same lines (sic).
Infill seismic acquisition has taken place and is currently being interpreted to finalise drill locations.
Who knows they could possibly announce that 4th drill depending on what they come up with.
Many thanks you for all your comments and for the links. I started to look at the thesis, clearly some good work has been done there in terms of research and geochemistry. I’m still on the learning curve for helium, but if these systems behave similarly to typical conventional gas traps, again it doesn’t help that all the current prospects are 3 way dip closures and hence share the same risk from that perspective. I have seen prolific gas traps in tilted fault blocks with very recent structuration and big faults extending up to the surface similarly to this area (eg. Tazerka and Oudna light oil fields in Tunisia), but they are not that common and rely on significant present day active charge. It would be nice to see if there are any analogue fields in the area to prove that this kind of trap configuration can work. Whichever way you put it, that is a risk that also adds to other unknowns in this area such as reservoir effectiveness.
Anyway, I would also like to draw your attention to the current prospect definition, and I’m only mentioning the most obvious problems:
- Prospect Mbuni: where is the data that defines this prospect?? Go on page 106 of the pdf, figure 8-1, zoom it in, nicely. There is only one seismic line at the edge of the prospect (the white dashed line, as the yellow lines have not been acquired yet). Not even a single seismic line in the opposite direction across the prospect…having been in the oil industry from several years, this seems to me quite a bullish interpretation! Let’s look at this a bit better. Notice the western corner of the prospect (towards the left-hand side of the image), all the elevation contours within the prospect seem to converge into one point. This is an artefact created by someone to close the prospect and create the structure that you are seeing on this map, you have no data there!! As far as I’m concerned this could be a tiny pimple or a larger structure, or something completely different to what they are proposing, who can tell?? You have no data across the prospect.
Maybe they used gravity data for somewhat defining the area of this prospect? But gravity data is not a substitute for missing seismic data, you rather integrate seismic and gravity data.
Don’t get me wrong on this, I like the concept and also the geology, but I just don’t feel that this is something you would consider drill ready at this stage, and I do wonder why they are doing things in this order. To me it would have made more sense to acquire at least some infill 2D data first, then drill the wells and try to target at least one 4 way dip closure even if with a small volume (if fault seal is a risk, try to minimise your risk, don’t put all your eggs in one basket), then acquire proper 3D seismic and evaluate new targets.
I got the impression from the DME video that they classed each wells multiple targets as an asset.
Once 1 is not commercial they just drill down to the next..
I assumed the bottom filled the top, but obviously that depends on seal and migration paths.
Energen said their wells have been producing the same levels of helium since first recorded, an ongoing natural process.
Its going to be interesting following this, and hopefully we will be handsomely rewarded too
With the free cash flow this company will be capable of achieving, thats where dividends are produced..
Good notes, enjoying our discourse on the subject. By chance, have you had a look at this?
Its from one of Prof Gluyas' students which gives some insight on the subject matter- generation, traps, charging, loses, etc. Ive done some cursory reading but not a detailed review (thats coming) but what is interesting is it touched on the subject on faults / healing with respect to salt deposition in chapters 5 & 6.
Away from the thesis (and geology) and onto your second point, on whether any sand body / trap (deeper) that shares a path (both charge and leak to surface) could charge up with gas moving through the faults onto to surface (shallower), mathematically, which you can derive from first principle (Newton's second law) show that a shallow section would get filled up should it is connected to a path (fault in this case) which also leaks out to surface. the rate of leak vs charge into the reservoir would be dictated, and simply replicated using a combined Darcy and Hagen-Poiseulle's Laws. This can modelled mathematically using analytical means (pen and paper, easiest and straight forward) or through numerical means (software).
Best thing about more people on board is the drilling knowledge coming too, incredible knowledge and experience.
Regards RHC, I'm right in thinking they were expecting 4% HE and got under 1% ? and still economically viable, not sure those same metrics apply to HE1, bey heyho.
Crude metric from but dropped about 10% for each 20% of HE under their estimates, assuming too theyrestill out their discovering.
Some comfort for sub 8p buyers of HE1, if that's our disappointing equivalent.
One thing on the otherside someone mentioned here was multiple well upto 9 planned, I can confirm DME value each positive well at anything from $50m. ( On chat boards).
Thinking to myself here (adding the derisk in) the Hannam report was spot on.
Yes the "One" in Helium One probably means it will hit £1 a share... ^_^
I was reading the RNSs for Royal Helium, which was trading at 0.08 when they started the drilling works reaching 0.91, and then they had their results. They found Helium, but a fraction of what we are aiming to find; below is the initial quote from the last RNS:
"Royal Helium Announces Initial Testing Confirms Economic Helium Concentrations at Climax
April 6, 2021
SASKATOON, SASKATCHEWAN – (April 6, 2021) Royal Helium Ltd. (“Royal” or the “Company”) (TSXV: RHC) is pleased to announce that initial gas sample test results have returned elevated and economic levels of helium concentration from multiple formations at the Climax helium project, with tests returning levels ranging from 0.33% to 0.94% from the Deadwood, Souris River and Duperow formations. The company will now commence long term production testing of the most prospective zones to confirm flow rates and ultimately resource size".
Incredible what just the drilling can do to a share price. I am sure they price wouldn't be at 0.5 today should they have had better Helium levels.
Thanks, Adrian87 - by the way, my name isn't GLA - that simply meant Good Luck All :-)
I would highly recommend looking up the experience of the drilling company and the people involved, notably: Ian Stalker, David Minchin, James Smith, and Principal Geologist Lorna Blaisse who has +13 years of Africa and North Sea experience; delivered successful exploration campaigns in Chad, Liberia and Uganda.
There is a slide about the board in the main HE1 presentation from November at around 15 mins 54 seconds:
Interview with Laura where she actually addresses some of the issues you mentioned also:
The drilling company Mitchell drilling international - offered to take equity for the 3rd drill and also do an extra optional 4th hole for equity - this is almost unheard of in recent times and shows confidence in the project.
The good thing is that they totally have 3D seismic funded and coming after these initial exploration drills - that will give greater clarity going forward to target optimal helium locations.
That infill spacing is approaching what is apparently regarded as a dense grid.
A 2-D grid is considered dense if the line spacing is less than about 1/4 mile [1,320 ft; 400 m].)
The advantages of 3-D include the following:
True structural dip (2-D may give apparent dip)
More and better stratigraphic information
Map view of reservoir properties
Much better areal mapping of fault patterns and connections and delineation of reservoir blocks
Better lateral resolution (2-D suffers from a cross-line smearing, or Fresnel zone, problem)
The figure on page 106 includes the infill lines, in yellow which I find really hard to see. Combining the current and infill lines the spacing looks to be 1/2-1 km, less in some cases. As the spacing is not consistent I would think they know roughly where the best locations are , and are fine tuning. There also appears to be an increase in lines at a 4th location Tai, maybe the 4th drill. Both Tai and Mbuni are missing from the figure on page 93, I wonder if these differ.
Thats the only info I can add, if its worth adding..
The same infill figure on page 13(double checked this time) is a lot sharper,,
Have you seen the Thesis, chapter 5 is specific to Tanzania, might add something to the picture..