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Thanks for TA guys. And enjoy the weekend break everyone. I certainly shall look forward to sleeping this weekend as been waking up early anticipating RNS’.
Don't forget the CEO bides his time with a RNS release until he is comfortable to release it.
I suspect the mms are aware of this and tried a sideway trade today but sentiment and anticipation got the better of them.
I did mention 24th as a news day back along. Well we had a price movement today.
I suspect if you buy in next week you will be rather content the following week.
Oh and today for me a bag on my initial investment so happy days!
Before this weeks rise I was going to go with a large stake (for me) on Monday.
So I think looking at the spiking potential in going to drip feed in over a longer period.
I must remember ARB at the start if the year which just went up and up and up.
Fair analysis Wyndrum, however, it is worth also noting for everyone being overbought does not preclude a full stop to the rise in price, despite increasing the the odds of a pullback.
The last two times the RSI entered overbought territory (on the 1D chart) it was sustained overbought for a 78% and a 60% increase respectively. If that was to be the case this time, let's say with a 60% increase whilst in overbought territory, that would take us up to ~36p before we saw a meaningful pullback.
Probably this means little to some on this BB, but TA translates price action into probability-based forecastable scenarios. Being overbought or oversold always ends in a regression to the mean, but when is anyone's guess. The guess is just more of a stab in a dimly lit room, rather than a stab in the dark.
Cheers Wyndrum, informative post.
Well, just as a quick aside, for those who don't "get" TA but might be reading this, look at the thread and the "predictions" and look at the chart, its been text book. (obviously coincidence is always a potential alternative, so its up to the individual as always).
For me I keep it very simple on these small stocks and the only indicator I overlay onto the SP action is the RSI, and whether its self fulfilling or not, I find it very reliable.
The good news is that the RSI, at the close today, is approaching over bought territory but is not quite there yet (74.88: anything over 80 is "over bought" and suggests a fall is imminent)
So two things: to bear in mind: it can go over and sustain(for a while) an RSI reading of above 80 but it won't do it for long before falling. And it doesn't HAVE to get to over bought before falling.
Whats next....?
It is (RSI) high quite high now and some sort of close below this current level is clearly possible, however the upward momentum is still very strong and there is room for more appreciation first, so I think its just about more likely than not that we will have another up day Monday.
(Had we definitely finished today "overbought" and at about 27.75p would have done it I think), then I would have expected no RNS on Monday, precipitating a bit of disappointment and the SP falling a little to allow the RSI to unwind and then a the RNS to be released on Tuesday and push us way up again. But that's mixing FA & TA and that way lies ruin! :0))
So in conclusion: the chart is unfolding at the moment and its not an area a chartist would probably buy in at right now, its just too close to being overbought and retracing.
As I say this does not mean it won't go up Monday or even rocket, but for chartists, its an odds game and the odds say be patient for a probable lower entry. If it does rocket then, c'est la vie, you can't win them all, but the whole point of TA ,is that it is a "system" and if you break the rules of the system, then sooner or later you start losing more often than you win.
The chartists who have patiently waited, either bought in on the bottom at 18p this week or a bit later when it FINALLY broke 21.5p, so the last couple of days have been vindication of what they do and therefore are not at this stage, looking to buy further. (Some may want to take profits but if they are like me, they are applying basic charting methods to time entry and exit rather than to "trade" the stock and be that cute.)
On the other hand there are plenty of people out there far more adept than me at this, so what do I know!!)
GLA
It may depend on how this opens in the morning, but I am expecting a tree shake so that the MM's have shares after the weekend. I'm not sure they will be able to collect many on Friday. That said, the past week may have been just that with the SP being depressed - still not sure if that was down to reduced volume or not.
DM left the UK today so I don't expect him to be on site before 17:00 our time tomorrow. I would expect the 400m to be drilled by then, but not sure how long it takes to do the tests (or how many times), then interpret the results. Say a day for each? I think the weekend will be when confirmation and sign off of a discovery takes place with an RNS on Monday / Tuesday.
I tidied up my chart (a little) which shows we are back in line with the trend I was lamenting the loss of just over a week ago. This had held true as the baseline for 7 weeks. We may see 21.5p or 20.89p revisited, but I think it would need to do so before 14:00 as the weight of movement is very clearly upwards with news anticipated.
Worst case scenario, it could move between 20.5p and 22p. 21.5p and 22p have not yet acted as a floor for the SP, but I expect them to soon. The baseline may act as a guide for the SP until the results are announced however I can see tomorrow closing at 23p and Friday at 24p. I am not sure if the ATH will be passed, but if Fear Of Missing Out hits, then certainly possible. https://ibb.co/nkLCJrG
With you there Re: 21.5 retest Wyndrum.
It's something I would look at closely if I was looking to enter a new position as it's very predictable.
I think though that this price has certainly got potential to just rocket from tomorrow AM. It'd be nice.
If it doesn't, I'm betting on 21.5 retest, and agree that it should provide an unbreakable support so long as there's no negative news.
cras es noster
J
There only 3 types of people in this world: Those who can do maths and those who can't.....
update:
The share price could do 3 things tomorrow and that's either go up or down.
This could be a false breakout (or bull trap) to suck buyers in and then the SP falls. I don't think it is because it has been below 21.5p for so long and has had enough intraday buys above 21.5p to do that which makes me put this as the lowest probability.
It could simply surge up (or at least move consistently) from here (22.35p) tomorrow, on the basis that 21.5p has been such a strong resistance that now its gone there are no sellers left around this price which means it can only go up.
The final option is that it actually does fall to retest 21.5p (or at least try to), again on the same basis that it was so hard to get above it, it could be a final test to prove that its not a bull trap/false breakout. If that is the case I would expect it more likely to intraday bounce off it as there will be buyers left out today, not trusting todays move up and will pounce on a chance to get in at a better price. I think this is a definite possibility but on balance expect it to move away from here tomorrow and not retest 21.5p.
It will depend I think on the first early moves.
If it holds or improves even slightly, then the left out buyers will pile in, having missed the "ideal" price of just below 22p, which will in turn move the SP up forcing more buyers to get in as quickly as possible to maximise gains.
I don't know where this is going but I think its a high probability that 21.5p to be a support now that won't be broken.
And if that's not the kiss Of Death, I don't know what is! :o))
Didn’t want to say myself! lol
@MRBENSON88888 looks like you're right!
I mostly look at the 5 min chart which is good for very short term trends (a few days). The hourly chart can show trends over longer durations and is better for seeing where the price has been before. This image shows both https://ibb.co/RhGWQg9 (you should be able to zoom in)
On the 5 min chart, we bounced off a trendline (ATH - 21/05) close to the 17.52p resistance. We opened today by gapping up and moving beyond the top of the channel created by the downward trend (low of 14th-17th) replicated against the high of the 15th. The top of that channel is currently 18.4p, so we may be moving out of that channel now.
From the low on the 18th to the low today, there is an upward trend; which if replicated against the high of the 18th, creates a very weak (1 day) channel. The top of this is 18.53p so we may be close or just above this. These 2 channels have intersected and this crossover ends at 09:25 on the 23rd. The intersection point is around 17.7p, so if we can finish tomorrow close to the 18p resistance, we may be in a new upwards trending channel (even if it is almost flat).
If we finish tomorrow above 18.6p, we will be beyond the top of the weak channel. The next resistance points would be 18.78p (from 30/04) and 19p with a second channel reaching 19.4p when set against today's high. I am not sure if we have finished the downward trend yet, but we are moving in the right direction. If the resistance at 17.52p or even 18p can hold then I would say it was very likely we had achieved a reversal.
The next resistance point is 16.65p which is just below the rebound point of the drop after the ATH. The trendline we just bounced off reaches 16.65p on Thursday lunchtime at the same time it intersects the top of the channel we've been in for the last few days. We do not want to go anywhere near that as there is only 1 weak resistance point at 15.62p until we reach 14.23p. We will have reached the first trap before that happens and I do not believe we will be short on news. The market will add its own resistance if we were to go any lower but I think there is room for cautious optimism that we are levelling out if we have not already done so.
So thank-you for the TA is how I should have finished that post ; )
I don't post much but since we hit the peak of 23p, the only people whose views I pay attention to on the share price are Wyndrum, Joshwaa and Glib, for the TA take. If I could do it myself I would, I definitely see the value in it to get a more realistic expectation of what might happen with a share price.
Also Xerxes is right - some hype, PR and diamond hands would go a long way, although I expect it works better with smaller caps and less free float.
Oh and I forgot;
4. Some major marketing to promote this share
Well said. Also, 19.6 is pretty well near the 0.236 fib so would provide another modicum of support.
Shame we often feel obliged to add "ignore.." when commenting on charts, etc. It rather irritates me that many can't understand that a chart isn't some arbitrary set of runes, but is simply a record of sales made in the market and recorded minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day, etc.
I digress.
I think we may get a nice rise tomorrow tbh. 7-10%
What we need is
1. Holders not paper hands.
2. Major hype over this share
3. A huge catalyst
(All prices based on the end of day close time interval, unless otherwise stated).
First thing is, its nice to have an up day to break the long 8 days of red. That it of in itself is not much consolation. What is more encouraging is that the 17.9p floor of the trading range that started on the 11/05 held (Friday low was 18.16p).
at its most basic it keeps HE1 in a trading range of 17.9p to 21.5p. (The ATH spike of 23p is now of no real importance (imo) and will only be symbolic should HE1 rise pass it.)
The next small target to aim for is a break and hold above 19.5p which would give a little more support that the down trend is over.
So not a particularly significant day today in isolation (except we may well look back and see this as the turning point, but that's one for the future), but perhaps the first step on the road to new highs or at the very least the start to see if HE1 can break bloody 21.5p!!!!! Roll on on 19.6p