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Cool, I made number 26 on the ramping list
@SGF it part of the investor meeting transcript..
this p50 138 billion cubic feet has an in-situ value of $38 billion
now we know the imported price into china is $375/mcf
so the in-situ value of that gas is closer to $50 billion
I will keep some more good bits for later, something about $200B, and 8-10%
@dai
Excellent post again. I wonder if we’ll ever get another company like this to invest in again?
Here’s to an RNS by Friday and lots of luverly press coverage over the weekend. Then, well, just sit back and smile :)
@Noob
It's s very simple logistical route An African mega project.
The capital cost for production of 350 000 mcf a year
is about 50million dollars.
Now that's based on a top level engineering study using a theoretical gas composition that comes out of the ground.
If you include some production wells, infrastructure to tie the well heads together, surface improvements for that first 50 kilometers of road to get to the tanzanian highway,
we're looking at maybe 70 to 80 million dollars.
The north field expansion which the Qataris are
building is going to produce 400 000 mcf of helium
and that's looking at a production capex of 28.5 billion dollars.
So 80 million dollars is a lot of money
but it's a drop in the ocean compared to some of these mega projects out there.
And it's a drop in the ocean compared to our payback period you know
Selling 130 million dollars worth of gas every year,
that's 350 thousand mcf at 375 dollars an mcf.
Even after the government free carry, royalties, corporate taxes
operating costs uh your margins are extravagant
And your payback time is less than 12 months
A 12-month payback time
The other thing to know is that this production is modular
you know each of these it comes in as a set of a dozen shipping
containers.
Footprint of less than a 1000m^2
You make it off-site in America or Germany and it gets shipped
and bolted together ion site.
Um once we've paid off the capital cost of our first module we'll
be in a very good position to self-finance our second module
and bring ourselves up to seven hundred thousand mcf a year.
The market needs it.
We are then in a position to review and potentially add a third production module then we'll be producing a billion cubic feet a year,
and we've got 10 to 15% of the global market, and we are the
swing suppliers.
We're the people who've paid off our capital cost and we can play around a bit, we can increase production and drop the price of helium, look for latent demand in the market but
we can reduce our production and increase the price of helium
and take more of the margin.
A billion cubic feet a year we can keep on doing that for
over 100 years and that's why on the first slide i say this has the potential to become globally strategic because in a success
case we've got the capacity to be the price setter in this high-tech
high-value commodity for over 100 years.
And that's the sort of thing which is quite difficult to ignore
How did you get to your PPS. You need to calculate NPV, based on you revenue assumptions, Opex, tax, years to extract and share count dilation.
@noob, dont confuse me :)
I dont think so , early days yet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4zVkhSXlNw&t=1499s
@Chilterns
I think you cheated...
Page 27 is probably your cup of tea
https://mcusercontent.com/110d0aa5f5d9bf9478796664e/files/58194820-d910-4c75-b085-a151b97344ee/Helium_One_Initiation_note_Final_14_Dec_2020_RB2.pdf?utm_source=H%26P+Master+Contact+List+%28Sements+and+Tags%29&utm_campaign=78f95cbff0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_20_02_05_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_dd4f91613c-78f95cbff0-371771967
Hurry up and get the He flowing, there`s another new use. The Germans have built Hel. drones, apparently they are more efficient in some conditions. Looks to me as if they could be bought down with a bow and arrow! https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/scaling-the-heights-the-helium-drone/vi-AAMCIgW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
I would like to use a figure of 158 BCF of Helium, divided by 2, to be on the less optimistic side, perhaps? :0)
It all depends on how much helium is discovered and extractable.
I would like to think if the drilling comes up trumps we should expect at least a billion pounds but would expect a bidding war to at least double that.
So about £3 a share.
All based on my opinion which probably doesn’t mean much.
So best call it £10 only a forty bagger.
BigPlan, I definitely leave the calculations for a future share price based on HE1 becoming a giant in the HElium world to you. But I was wondering, say, what share price you would value HE1 if it were to be sold?
I am sorry people, I don't want to put the car head of the horses as we haven't even declared a commercial discovery yet, but I don't mind joining the fun before we get the RNS.
Thanks, BigPlan.
ATB
ST
Even 5% is over $3 a share.
Great days ahead.
Assuming 6 bcf discovery (massive assumption), I have done an NPV calculation making some educated guesses on Capex and Opex in the years 2022-2035. Assume first gas in 2024. Assuming a gas price of $200/mcf increasing at 2% inflation. With production ramping up to 2000 mcf/d from 2025. (I have capped it to 15 years as you would produce the 6bcf by then).
Over this 15 year period, this would give:
Gross Revenue ($MM MOD) $1.2 Billion
Net Cash Flow ($MM, MOD) $850 Million
Assuming a Discount Factor of 12%, this gives a discounted NCF / NPV 10 of c. $324 mm
Which works out at $52 NPV/mcf and an IRR of 50+%.
Taking this NPV and applying it to Tai to calculate the Net Asset Value (NAV)...
- 6,000,000,000 gross cubic feet
- 5,040,000,000 net cubic feet (84% working interest)
- $263,500,000 unrisked value
- $67,000,000 risked value (30% geological chance of success and an 85% commercial chance of success if a discovery)
- 8p / share risked for Tai
- 31p / share unrisked for Tai.
So in conclusion, a modest discovery equates to an approximate doubling of the share price. The analysts assessments are sensible.
I dont think it works like that, producing 69bcf in a year..
DM talked about selling $130m the first year, thats 350,000 mcf @$375/mcf
Producing 700,000 mcf 2nd year
1bcf for the 3rd
Come on guys that's not how you value a company. I'm pro he1 and look at my previous posts on valuation. You cant just take 50% of asset value and divide by how many shares are in issue and say it's worth $33.
Valuation is based on profit or cash flow and the asset at rukwa will be realised over 100 years therefore time value of money will erode the value of the asset at today's prices.
Like I said I've covered valuation in detail before but that Twitter post is very misleading
Well it checks out on a NAV calculator so I’m off to bed dreaming tonight lol
I wouldn't complain. Lol.
Can’t argue with that positivity :-))))
Went through twatter, what do you think to this guys calcs ?
Get in on $HLOGF - little DD & you'll see why. ;)
DD: 138bcf Helium, $300/mcf mkt price. HE shortage, used in a myriad of products (incl Aero $SPCE ). 609M O/S. #HE1
IF only 50% discovery of 138bcf = 69bcf
Revenue @ $300/mcf = $20.7B
PPS est = $33.99 ??
Current PPS = $0.3563