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Thanks from me too to seisprocessor. I could not do the seismic interpretaions in Geology 101, but I find it very interesting.
I am invested in DME as well as He1 and I have tried to pay attention to both companies.
There are clearly pretty nice traps at Rukwa. But helium is very hard to seal and I think that is the main issue. I have read that when they pick up helium in trucks with special transport tanks at the national reservoir in Texas (about to be closed this fall), they can lose 20% of the helium driving a few hundred km to an end user. It is hard to keep it from leaking out. That is why it is such a great leak detector. Holbrook valley is a salt bed and they have salt (a crystalline structure) seals which are the very best. Rukwa has more conventional traps (although the other two He1 prospects may have salt seals).
Anyway, seems to me the seals will tell the story. Are they good enough to hold big reservoirs of helium/nitrogen gas. Apparently the oxford scientists and the independent evaluators think that there are good traps and good seals. But He1 has to prove that with the drill bit. Hang on for a interesting ride.
@seis, great post,
Still working on the maths, something is amiss as the report suggests Tai should be of the largest closures..
"The prospect closure areas range from circa 1.7km^2 to 10Km^2"
Been looking through the reports for the recovery factors or clues but cant find anything, Although i would not know they existed without your post.
I see more in seismic sections now. I think.
So a question if you dont mind and whenever, no rush, will be here for a long time.
Looking at Strike, line 14, about 0.4s, those black and red lines are from the same deposits/time?
Then at about 0.3s above the trap the missing lines are erosion rather than slipping down through movement into 0.4s?
One question really.
Looking again, I might be seeing lines pushing up, which makes the missing ones erosion?
Thank you for your time and effort digesting the limited material available for us. It is great to have someone with more experience on seismic analysis than I have (total amatteur here) and your views are much appreciated.
About the volumetrics it doesn't matter as we had a rough idea from the IPO presentation slides and you have not goes too far anyway - in short, we may have lots of Helium in place granting our seals for TAI one are as good as it is being suggested.
Now we have just to wait.
Thanks for pointing that out - you're right. I not very good with volumetrics, just wanting to understand how much helium is potentially there.
Not got your expertise in these matters, but have you not calculated the volume wrong by a factor of 10?
You said the area was 10sqkm which 10,000m x 1,000m not 10,000m x 10,000m? That would be 100sqkm.
Please ignnore me if I'm wrong, and sorry to downgrade the volumetric.
Excellent set of posts SP, but I believe your m3 to feet3 calculations are incorrect, there are 32.35 cubic feet to the cubic meter?
So converting: 72 million (m3) x 35.32 = 2.541 Billion mcf.
Sunday seismic thoughts - part 4 of 4:
Now for the fun part taking a wild stab at calculating the volumetric of Tai on the back of a beer mat!
Areal extent = 2 x 5km = 10sq km
Vertical depth = 230m+270m = 500m
Volume = 10000m x 10000m x 500m = 50 billion cu. m
Reduce by factors e.g. porosity 18%; recovery factor 20%, helium content 4%
50 billion cu. m x 0.18 x 0.2 x 0.04 = 72 million cu. m
Convert to mcf: 72 million x 0.0353 = 2.541 million mcf.
Value = 2.5416 million x $250/mcf after costs = $635m or £453m
So that's 4 times the m/c of £118 million for one well.
All the above 4 posts are just my own opinions based on a very limited snapshot of the data in a powerpoint presentation. We won't know for sure about anything until the formations are drilled next month, so anyone's guess is as good as mine! As always, DYOR.
Sunday seismic thoughts - part 3 of 4:
In the latest presentation by HE1, there was a comment on page 16 about Tai:
'Faulted 3-way dip closure concurrent with a gravity high'
I wanted to find out more about the use of gravity analysis as a geophysical technique here and to try to understand this comment better. It's been a long time since I did a gravity survey at university!
I purchased and read a scientific paper yesterday, which describes an area in NW Italy with helium and geothermal activity and very similar circumstances to the Rukwa valley.
Volcano–tectonic structures, gravity and helium in geothermal areas of Tuscany and Latium (Vulsini volcanic district), Italy - ScienceDirect: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0375650599000140
In this location there is a rift valley graben, sedimentary basin, good carbonate reservoir rocks, NW-SE faulting and also, unusually, the ideal distance from volcanic activity to generate hydrothermal fluids at above 100C for releasing helium.
In Italy, radioactive decay of the source rocks has produced small amounts of helium which have been liberated by the hydrothermal fluids and have migrated through the strata and up fault walls that have reached the surface. Measuring helium in the soil over 1000 locations produced a positive helium anomaly centred on the location of the faults.
The big difference here is that the Italian source rocks are only 600 thousand years old whereas in the Rukwa valley, the Pre-Cambrian source rocks are up to 2600 million years old.
So in Rukwa there is an additional period of some 2 billion years for a large amount of helium to be generated from radioactive decay and released by relatively recent volcanism.
In Italy, the helium soil sample measurements were made in parts per billion, whereas in the Rukwa basin, helium seeps at Itumbula are up to 10 per cent where faults have reached the surface!
The high positive gravity anomalies in Italy matched the faulting patterns and the presence of potential sandstone reservoir rocks with higher densities of 2.5g/cc and carbonate sequences at 2.6g/cc. A low negative anomaly would have indicated the presence of low density rocks such as bentonitic volcanic ash for example.
So to return to the Tai prospect again, the gravity high associated with the faulted 3 way dip closure must refer to the trapping structure and helps to confirm the presence of thick sequences of sandstone reservoir rocks with densities around 2.5g/cc in both the upper Red Sandstone and Karoo supergroup formations.
Again, nothing definite, but another attribute that points to something encouraging!
Sunday seismic thoughts - part 2 of 4:
The Tai prospect didn't feature much on the old legacy data. However, advances in data processing techniques, computer power and processing algorithms have greatly enhanced this prospect on the reprocessed data.
In the mid '80s noise filtering and data scaling techniques could be pretty brutal and a lot of assumptions were needed in the final processing stages.
Crucially, the re-processed data would have preserved the true amplitude characteristics of the data, so it's now possible to see subtle changes in the displays.
The amplitude of the red/black/white reflected signals are displayed as acoustic impedance, which is density multiplied by velocity of sound in the rock.
So harder rock layers like sandstone and limestone will have higher impedance values since they're more dense and the speed of sound through the rock is also faster. Less dense rocks like fine shales and mudstones will have lower values.
Let's look at the blue highlighted areas again. The dark blue dotted line seems to show a boundary between events outside, which have a stronger signal and events inside, which appear to be noticeably dimmer in amplitude. The reservoir rock between the two major faults is continuous, so the density hasn't changed, but the impedance values have dropped indicating that perhaps the velocity of sound in the highlighted zones has reduced. If hydrocarbon gas is present in a reservoir, then commonly the velocity is reduced, so this could indicate the presence of gas in both zones.
Looking above the two blue circles, the amplitudes look normal. There doesn't appear to be any gas escape structures or discontinuities in the overlying strata, so if gas is present in the reservoir zone, then there's no evidence of the sealing of the trap failing.
The two highlighted prospects span a vertical two way travel time of approx. 0.2 seconds each, from 0.6-0.8 seconds and 1.1-1.3 seconds. At a rough guess, the velocity of sound through the Red Sandstone formation would be in the order of 2200-2400 meters/sec and the velocity of the sands in the Karoo formation a bit higher, say, 2600-2800 meters/sec.
So the actual depths of the reservoir zones highlighted should be in the order of 230m and 270m respectively.
Sunday seismic thoughts - part 1 of 4:
I promised to have another look at the seismic data in the latest HE1 6th May presentation and post some further thoughts. No matter if you're a geologist, geophysicist, investor, day trader or simply like gambling on the wife's pension fund, the recent decision to switch to the Tai prospect means that next month our investment decision hangs on the information provided in this presentation and a couple of seismic displays. There's not too many comments about it, and really the Tai prospect/lead has gone from a tiny blip on the Prospect map on page 11 to a 'must drill' location, but it is possible to glean some more information out of the seismic data.
I'm happy to share my thoughts if it helps others to understand what they're looking at, but bear in mind it's only a snapshot of limited data, and I'm not privy to the library of 2D data, well log data, geological and seismic interpretations or gravity data that the company has.
In order to explain the basics for those who don't profess to know much about seismic theory, I'll avoid using technical terms or too much detail.
Take a look at the seismic displays on page 16. The red, black and white background data represent the rock strata with red indicating strong positive reflected signals, black indicating strong negative reflections and white being neither strongly positive or negative.
The interpreter has drawn 3 lines - red for the top of the Red Sandstone formation, yellow for the top of the Karoo supergroup formation, and pale blue for the base of the Karoo formation.
The dark blue dotted lines indicate the stacked targets in the reservoir rocks shaded in blue inside.
Energy released by the vibrating pad of a vibroseis truck gets transmitted down through the earth and reflected back off each rock interface where there's a change in density or the speed of sound in the rock. The reflections are tiny and recorded by sensitive receivers on cables on the ground. The earth acts like a big sponge and most of the energy is absorbed, so the reflections from deeper events have to be amplified a lot to be visible on the displays.
A lot of geophysics goes into getting rid of unwanted signal and enhancing real events.
Yes, so just relax until the 3D seismic is acquired and mapped.
Post that I think it changes the business models and brings JV and interested capital. Till then it's just a positive well run aim miner.
Noticed someone here mentioned Ian Stalker was talking and having early approaches from praxair and Air products, can't find any reference or truth in that. Also saw the comment on twitter
Anyone got a reference to that?
I disagree Wilbur,
This has gone from IPO to drill in 6 months.
The model spoken of talks about selling helium , that's after modular plant installation and yes all the permits and gubbins and cash, sometime 2022/23.
It's often stated this is an aggressive model, by DM. Also I don't think it's realised how many years have gone into pre IPO at Rukwa.
Not to be confused with an IPO that has cash and some ideas. Thousands of seep tests and acquiring of previous date. They have three CPRs on this.
In the TSX stockmarket DME are talking of producing and selling next year, thats 1 year after discovery.
Helium, with no hydro carbons, is about as near term as mining to product can get .
The before considering how demand plays out.
Steve 58, Many apologies, that was meant for Novicehunter!! Ooops??
You do your research and Due Diligence and make your choice.
Yes this is very blue sky atm and will remain so until the drill results are released.
Mining is notoriously risky and of course there will be bumps in the road. Its not a near term business.
Yet reading between the lines here, I'm happy to sit tight and wait till results come through.
I've done my research and DD !!
Tell me about it.
Always seem to sell low and buy high.
Currently 19.40p pushing again !!
Where are these deramping muppets coming from?
Past sellers looking for re entry, simple as that
Steve58, I guess we're all 1 bad RNS away from losing hard earned money when we choose to invest in stocks and shares.
Well Mdrake, let's take those comments for what they are...
As i said no point or value in engaging or continuing the thread
Lost thousands over the years just glad to be here.
You think fast jet was a bad investment.
I had invested 8k in bp call warrants a day before the horizon explosion.
A good day here so far may it continue.
There obviously looking for lower entry price but that boat has sailed I'd say..in few months 40p will of looked like a cheap entry.
Where are these deramping muppets coming from?
There is constructive criticism and then there is plain obnoxious opinions with no research behind them.
HE1 is a fully funded up to appraisal/3D seismic, well-managed and focused company sitting on a resource of potentially the world's largest premium helium supply. This isnt smoke and mirrors, it has 5 years' worth of unbiased research behind it from very reputable academic sources. It is a once-in-a-lifetime stock if they hit what they are confident they will.
They literally turned down approx 11 million pounds after being oversubscribed for the appraisal fundraiser and some of you clowns are calling it a "pump and dump"?... lol please
He said fast jet not easyjet.. stelios got involved but it didn't work out
May well end up over 20p again today, currently 19.10p