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@SteadyDanny
I do not think we are testing the "spoil" or any gravel that comes up with the mud. I believe however that during the appraisal stage, they will be taking core samples, so imagine some testing will be done then.
Of course there is always the point to be made that with this share there is more than one chance so at least of this drill doesn't go to plan the share price won't collapse.
Trek, i like this post and it points out the fact that you can loose alot of money in a blink of an eye, i hope those here who are sinking everything they have into one share are reading this. I once knew an experienced trader who almost had everything he wanted but everything was risked and then one day he lost the lot. He1 is a great share to be in but until we get results......
Hi Scott...
Firstly I hold you in the highest esteem for your critiques here and at TXP. As it is! Well done!
1. Investment advice is not difficult following it is!
It’s in the eye of the beholder. I am talking about basic mistakes the high risk investment space. Not FTSE100 although same rules apply it just moves slower!
Agee we do make the same mistakes but we usual know ‘before’ we have made them! Dichotomy? We haven’t acted on what we thought was the likely outcome after the event. All guilty, hands up icon!
2. ..she has never questioned any of my investments in ‘her’ ISA. It’s likely that trust that has made me better with her ISA than with ‘mine!’
Yep absolutely agree Scott, Mrs Trek has just let me go. I discuss lots with her but she lets me get on. I told her she lost £65k in one day once (vax day). It was a difficult explanation until I explained she had 80k from 5 years of investing!
3. I have written to many CEO’s and recently 4 from 6 have replied.
Was one of them employed by Helium 1? Nope never had a REASON to pen DM.
4. Often some peeps don’t sell loser to ride winners or what you are sure are winners!
Agree with your response but some wanna profit and the average down a loser.
Usual caveats
Trek
This is all a great education to me. Thanks for the insight (guys and girls). Simple but effective and for me it is critical to take the emotion out of the decision process-
As hard as it maybe!!!
Good evening all and here’s to news soon (today’s activity would suggest NO 7am RNS but hoping for exciting trading leading into the nervy weekend)….
PJ
First post..
BP,
Spot on and ‘pros’ have the advantage of using brokers with DMA.
If they have a large buy or sell; matters not they can create liquidity by posting schemes. Using ALGO’s, AT trades and moving small numbers across books.
1 trade anyone! ******s!
This is all mifid2 compliant. The role of the MM is..to make a market!
Often PI’s buy & sell on wild SP moves on low volumes outta panic!
Decide, Is it a scheme, liquidity drive, or has things gone sour. It’s pretty obvious. Volume dictates good and bad news!
SP moves on AIM; SETS, SETSqx are subjected to high volatility on low volumes. Use it to your advantage!
If a Sp is dropping for no reason on low vols. Sell a few, pick em back up a bit cheaper. That has been some of my best trades!
Imo the biggest resistance to doing this is if the pf SP average goes down. So a PI sees 25% up instead of 75% up! It’s true, so some don’t back their winners because of their spreadsheets!
Just plot the bottom line FFS and balance that!! How much money have you made?
Who cares if it’s 10 losers and you have protected your capital to achieve 2 winners that are 1000% up in the bottom line!!!
For balance if your SP tanks you still loose but you have a lower risk with averaging back in over time!
For example following the recent SP negativity... (which I say is partly seasonal)
I added significantly to my ONC position, the price tanked for no reason than imo to generate liquidity.
Sp went from 220 to below the 180 placing at a SP premium! I bought at 160’s it now it’s back up!
I’m not being clever. There was no reason for the drop. .
I maintain it was a liquidity scheme as it enabled some big trades to go through...
Thanks BP and Josh, really wonderful to see a seasoned pro imparting such valued knowledge. Not sure I'll be at a level to use candlesticks to help on this share in the near future, but I'll definitely keep an eye out for resistance points that become support, RSI etc. Want to be the best investor I can be going ahead
Post 2..
Definition: market making incentive schemes that the Exchange is mandated to offer under Article 48(2)(b) of MiFID and Article 1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/578
Page 58 covers it and also ALGO trades. Worth learning the offside rule before you play footy because you can be sure the MM knows all the rules!!
https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/rules-lse.pdf
MiFID2 MM agmt tab...
https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/20200401%20MIT%20&%20TE%20Parameters%20version%207.2.xls
Hope that helps especially newbies...
See they have to post a scheme and it’s often for a good reason, liquidity!
Imagine if there was little interest so the share you love costs £129 to buy or 45p to sell. Ok that’s extreme but you get the gist now with illiquid stocks you can hopefully see both sides of the argument to help you decide!
PI’s together! We need it!
Usual caveats!
Trek
£5
Well said joshwaa, 100% agree on the std deviation element. Bit like the S&P 500 where the price is more than double historic averages of valuation vs earnings ratio. When a crash happens, the fall could be drastic.
Pretty much BigPlan.
In a less TA manner I would state that nothing goes up, in a straight line, forever. Even with extremely exponential stocks such as Tesla et al, the price will always pull back eventually.
It's knowing this that means you can look for important historical prices that will likely act as inflections in the trajectory.
When a stock rises, let's say some huge move that breaks all trends (like here hopefully), you can either buy in as it's rising (FOMO), or wait for the inevitable pullback and subsequent consolidation. What is fascinating to me about market prices is that there are ALWAYS patterns, and you will find that even once a new high price has been reached the pull back and consolidation will fall in line with a historical trend or price support. This would then act as a potential buying opportunity.
Its simply down to the fact that stock prices are influenced by people, and people are creatures of habit. We knowingly and unknowingly gravitate to familiarity, and create narratives and expectations, and this unfolds in patterns in markets. Whether that be the price of Mars bars in shop, or price of a new Bentley, there's always patterns.
When it comes to selling (for profit), it almost the reverse of anything I've just said. You want to look at how far from the trend the price has traveller's, and as BigPlan said use RSI to give another validation to whether something is oversold. In Economics we talk about how many standard deviations a value is away from the mean. The more stnd dev's away from the mean, the more probable it becomes that the trajectory will reverse, and the larger the deviation the more risk of a larger correction.
For what it's worth I'm somewhat risk averse and tend to miss the very top often, but I make up by having made a habit of buying very low.
J
Thanks TrekMadone. A few comments.
1. Investment advice is not difficult following it is!
That is like my advise to pitchers (coaching baseball). Throw strikes. Easy to say it. Difficult to do it. (especially if you combine it with "don't give them anything to hit")
2. ..she has never questioned any of my investments in ‘her’ ISA. It’s likely that trust that has made me better with her ISA than with ‘mine!’
Yes but you also have the pressure of not wanting to lose "her" money, only if that means in her name. At different times and for different reasons I managed my parents' money and my brothers money. Always did better than with my own money. Took fewer chances.
3. I have written to many CEO’s and recently 4 from 6 have replied.
Was one of them employed by Helium 1? Is there anything you can share about specific concerns, information you gave him, comments you got back. I realize that you might not to share any of that, but I am interested. (and I wouldn't be if you had mot brought it up).
4. Often some peeps don’t sell loser to ride winners or what you are sure are winners!
What I see (and confess that I have done though rarely) is to sell winners to fund losers. That is a particularly bad strategy, and a wealth destroyer if done too often.
Are we testing the spoil!?
By the way the 20, 50 and 200 average is used as most day traders and professionals across the world use these averages to time buys and sells. As such since most of the world use these, you can predict the price action as after all a SP with no change to fundamentals via news is just a reflection of supply and demand for the share in question.
So if you’re waiting for the SP to hit a 20 day moving average before you buy, so are most other professional investors or traders with bigger pockets so you can expect a price spike and vice versa.
BP
You would need to look out for a combination of candle stick patterns, volume and RSI indicators to find an over bought position with the volume and candle stick pattern informing whether buyers are in control or sellers.
If you have an over bought position which the RSI would indicate and the candle stick pattern shows that sellers are in control, you can make an assumption that the chart is about to change momentum and pull back.
You’ll then have a new high high and a new high low to act as support and resistance. Add the 20, 50 and 200 day moving average indicators on and you find extra resistance points.
BP
Sorry to disrupt the professional thread with novice skill. I would think I will learn how to use charts over the next few months and years. However, for now I have a, perhaps silly, question. If charts predict potential price action based on the past, how would they help with entry or exit decisions once ath's are broken and share price is in uncharted territory? Thanks in advance for any replies
Sorry just reading my missive....
Oops!
Where's the word count!
Trek
£5
Phew!
Hi guys,
Oh the voodoo! I know it’s easy with hindsight and I accept news rules ok but what’s one of the first things we do before we buy. Any instrument?
We look at the chart!
TA is an extension of that.
I use it when buying and selling as a component of my decision making.
Most I get wrong but many right. TBH the best it has served me is when to sell as opposed to when to buy. Either as a complete exit or a sell and buy back cheaper! Opp to Zak!
The times I buy using TA it’s actually a momentum change that makes a buy even after a sell!
E.g. I caught PUR not far off bottom on a sell/buy in trading terms.
However, a recent example (Mrs Trek), I picked up some PXC today. It’s been on my watchlist since 45p. I had to decide which to flip and time it. My primary object was timing not the sell (as I had set a news cut off date) but time the volatile PXC buy.
That’s when TA can help. I sat on my hands on the spike to 72p having watched it climb from 55. I bought 33% today at 64.4. Watching the volume, RSI and by running dummy trades which can really help. I will buy a few more tranches over time with discipline and use TA & news!
It helps to average in or out of a position. Once you are all in you are committed. Likewise if you are all out you can miss any bounce! We all get it wrong, we don’t deliberately pick duds! Sometimes it’s fine to leave a little in just in case you wanna start again but PROTECT your capital!
Investment advice is not difficult following it is!
Rule 1 is the same as rule 10. Preserve your capital! Whatever it takes! No capital and you have dropped your nest egg, it’s smashed, you are out of the spoon race! Protect your capital at all costs!!! ALL even if it means a hit. Only you know your risk limits.
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket! Oops! Lol!
No my TXP YOLO sounds mad, but Mrs Trek & I are one and she has never questioned any of my investments in ‘her’ ISA. It’s likely that trust that has made me better with her ISA than with ‘mine!’ LOl!
Often some peeps don’t sell loser to ride winners or what you are sure are winners! Don’t sit and wait for that ‘one day’ unless you are absolutely convinced & can afford to wait - and then use foot in NOT all in!
A BB is a terrible place for that. It’s often like a doctors waiting room for news! Everyone says it will be fine!
I have written to many CEO’s and recently 4 from 6 have replied. So it can help.
Of the 4, 2 I have had a some respectful email exchanges with where I have actually shared research with them that they were unaware of! Sounds mad but we probably research their space more than they do in terms of competitors/science!
Most PI’s hold and hug come hell or high because Warren ‘says’ so. He doesn’t, he sells once his economic moat looks to be in jeopardy and his quote is often miss placed!
PI’s have the advantage to be able to adapt in smallcaps. So adapt! Use it to your advantage!
Usual caveats
Would this resemble a intraday bull flag from intraday low, as of Twitter update?
100% agree Joshwaa. I am still a strong fundamental and valuation guy and I won’t be trading shares on a daily or weekly basis but will use charts to time entry and exit positions (exit when top of my fundamental valuation and RSI indicates an over bought position).
Either way I’ve learnt **** loads over last few weeks on charts but made **** load of money over past 7 years on pure fundamental investments across many asset classes so won’t change my tactics anytime soon.
Good to be sharing charts in future too.
BP
Last post and I'll beggar off.
This is my nearly-three-week-old chart (log). The price moves over the last few days have definitely been nice, but, we're still in the waiting room. Nothing's changed yet.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6cqEy4G8/
J
In all honesty though BigPlan I'm not really one for using TA to predict price action, at least not much, and certainly not in much detail.
I do however use it A LOT for understanding the relative value of stock prices, mainly in order for me to assess when to enter a market. I've said it before but charts are just historical records of past prices of a stock, and by studying how the price has moved over time you can pick up patterns that emerge, or identify prices that the market has reacted, sometimes repeatedly.
It's always each to his/her own, but I believe it is of higher importance to know WHEN to enter a market, rather than just WHICH market to enter.
J
For anyone interested here is a chart from Swayzers Charts posted yesterday.
https://twitter.com/SwazersC/status/1420382093079625729/photo/1
We remain in the rectangular box, but a closing break above 26.6p should take us up to 34p soon after, thereafter it is blue sky.
I guess a closing break below 24.7p would be bearish.
The box appears to emphasise how important it is to close below 26.6p on any given day so as to remain in the box, and perhaps explains the price action at the close with the UT trade at 26.5p setting the final price.
If you believe.
Bigplan, I commented on your twitter, but will also add a little more here.
I actually agree in this instance with most of Wyndrum's view.
I would be in the camp that the ~27p double top has only been tested, rather than broken. I say this because though there were attempts above it it wasn't sustained in the close, and ended below, which is indicative. It suggests that the market wasn't buying that the equilibrium price should be above 27p.
I would, however, see it as probable, as you suggest, that a pull back to the ~24/25p support could be the next play whilst we wait for news. That would be a good place to make a new rally to break 27p.
It's all a game of testing what prices the market are willing to entertain, and this always works within a range.
A sustained break (a day or two) above the 27p area would make it very likely that the double top turns from resistance to a future support.
Hi BP, you will get different conclusions depending on what time frame you are looking at.
fwiw I use end of day close prices and day time intervals as I don't plant to trade intra day, As a result I see it slightly differently to you. The DT was at 27p/27.1p, so we need a close and hold above there to indicate further gains. Currently its in a TR between 21.5p and 27.1p
Obviously we have had a lot of today above 27p but it closed just below it. So 27p looks to be a proper resistance point. Which is good as it will be more significant and indicative of likely further upward moves should it close above it .
(yes, TA will always say it can go either up or down. It just tries to give an indication of what move is more likely to happen.)
(To date it has proved remarkably helpful (for me) for timing entry at relative low points as I added along the way.)
Each to his own as always.
Could go up or down then, depending on the news, or lack of it?