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Wyndrum
You’re an extremely effective operator in the stock market;
that’s a ‘given’ after reading all of your posts-to date.
However, after your take RE: just some facts.
I believe you’re a natural motivator:-)
I have little knowledge,re: intricacies of the
stock market; my intrinsic gut feeling, however,
has looked after me for 60 yrs.
ln regards to HE1’s prospects, DM’s inherent belief after five-long-years
of research, he has finally found the ‘sweet- shop; this factor vindicated
by so many other eminent geologists historically over so many years.
Personally, l’m all in, long-term; other investors will choose otherwise;
I wish them good luck/good fortune and of course to yourself.
Rukra is accepted as an opportunity for HE1 to establish
itself as a World class producer, in meeting the increasing needs
of users with top-grade helium for many years to come.
My take only guys.
“I got a ticket to ride and l don’t care”
Blu, Its not quite that black and white. But it is a game, for sure .
Trading by and large is done on indices. One of the things I have noticed since I came away from day trading is that the belief (and maybe its true), from investors is that there are always traders in their stock mismanaging the SP. As I have stumbled into a few stocks over the last months to ultimately hold for a while to see how they pan out I would simply be amazed if anybody was trading these stocks. There might be a few exceptions where the volatility is enough with the volume available with tight enough spread, but really these titchy minnows on AIM, well, they just would not be on a Traders radar, at all, ever....The smaller the stock the easier it is for MM to shake traders around.
But for all I know, its just gamblers, calling themselves traders. I don't know... or care Ha! GLA!
Value for money, a row of them for me, £1.25m, and a fridge
https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/28/beach-huts-sale-1250000-dont-running-water-10475382/
"We typically work on smaller margins of success being repeated. We can't afford to that get many wrong if we are to make money out of it."
if there are maybe 200 working days in a year then you'd probably need 100 blue days, however small (and at least 50 days sitting on your hands avoiding temptation).
@dai2belts
here is one more link - looks very good and might just work if H&P's unrisked sp comes through:
https://www.privateislandsonline.com/asia/maldives/soneva-jani
@DBD, I could hang around until I can afford your neighbouring island..
I have been making mental notes of well researched BB members to stalk
Its a fine line between the TA and FA guys at the moment
So maybe I will just get a bigger refrigerator and/or a home brew shed for now
I get all that guys, but even traders don't randomly pick shares.
The only way this particular stock increases in value is if the chance of drilling success increases. its pretty binary. This is not a trading stock per se because the risk is far too high.
Maybe some will try and ride it and be cute (and good luck with that but I think its at the margin), but I think here (as elsewhere), too many investors don't really understand Trader mentality. Basically by and large we are risk averse. Its not just about charts, its as much about money management.
We typically work on smaller margins of success being repeated. We can't afford to that get many wrong if we are to make money out of it.
One of the reasons so many fail is that the "gambling" element is attractive to er… gamblers, and that type of mind-set, maybe counter-intuitively, is not conducive to being a successful Trader
(Just for clarity I am not "trading" this stock I have targets that I will sell at but that is dependent on HE1 being successful.
I have used charts (so far) successfully, to time various levels of entry.
I think Blubay is arguing that some investors don't care about the company or even their product as long as they have made their target profit.
This is still al wildcat drill after all.
It is possible that Randy tried some of that gassy Helium beer and the mass spec was just picking up some... effluence.
Dai
Good luck with the house hunting, wish you well and that He1 profits would make that happen easier for you and fam.
On the flipside, there will be other multi bagger to consider should you wish to recycle (some) profits at a later date - check with SGF, ST, Joshwaa too as i do follow them on some shares. there will be a time to bank them and enjoy the proceeds but we will know ourselves when that will be.
GLA
"Most investors are motivated by profit, and not losing too much, rather than discovering Helium"
well, then unless they just randomly stuck a pin in the aim listed companies available, why would they have bought any HE 1 to begin with, if not in the belief/hope they would strike helium?
"Presumably people only bought into HE1 because of the belief it would strike Helium"
Most investors are motivated by profit, and not losing too much, rather than discovering Helium. Initial investors will be out in while or part by now, taking their profits on the rise in anticipation of drill results (irrespective of discovery), and move on to another venture, but they may also have options to come back in later at discount prices (winning both ways).
As others have said, it's a risky investment and there's still a lot of risk in it. If there was no risk then you can bet we'd all be paying the unrisked price for shares at this point!
Could be life changing, there is a house up the valleys, you go in through the front door ,turn left into the living room, or right into the bar.. I could buy it :)
When I found it, I waited for a while until a smoker came out before I was sure it was a pub..not something you see these days
My portfolio is not very big, so as He1 as increased its shrunk the rest, hopefully will swallow up the rest like a black hole..
And I switched some funds from a stock where the CEO is showing signs of being a fantasist, a good move so far..
Nice one Dai. It's about 1/3 of mine - just couldn't take the risk of it being any higher even though it felt like a good bet.
Hope it's a life changing investment for you.
He1 is about 2/3 my portfolio which I am really pleased about..
What if it keeps raining and lake Rukwa reaches an ATH before as we get to 41p?
Anyway P10 estimates are calculated at half the concentration DM is hoping to find, and not much more than double the puddle in the rubble they report at 70m
Cheers ST, I guess it also depends on how much of one's portfolio is in HE. I think I'm about 8% which is probably on the low side compared to many others. It still means that 92% of my money doesn't depend on drilling in Tanzania. Someone with 100% here would possibly make a different judgement.
Wyn, as ever you made a good case :-) I may make an exception and borrow a bit off eve if they strike He here!
SGF, DBD and D-G,
I agree with your posts too. Of course, for my own selfish interest I prefer people don't derisk now as it would mean the share will drop from the lovely 24.5, 24, and even 23p, as I prefer seeing it going up only! :0)
However, I know that some decent folk here are worried and scared of the risks and my lose what they cannot afford to lose, should we not be successful in our first attempt, so that's why I said this is not a bad price to derisk some.
I for one am happy with the geology, the works by scientists and geologists, the HE seepage (most of all) and the superb team we have in HE1, so I will face the drill bit to the end.
One thing I can guarantee you, once you derisk you will win over your greed and feel relaxed inside and still make some real money should we be successful. Otherwise, all the best as you will be on the same boat as me!! Yeah!!!
Cheers
ST
I get and understand the "de-risk now" case but I don't think it makes a lot of sense on this stock:
Presumably people only bought into HE1 because of the belief it would strike Helium, so why sell just before you are about to know the result? Maybe some very savvy buyers got in at the earlier, but even risker stage, and never intended to wait for the result, but even then that does not make a lot of sense to me.
This is a high risk stock that if it comes off promises exceptional returns. That's the investment case. Now HE1 are so close to announcing the first proper drill result on the back of about as good as it gets initial test and results, just seems bizarre to me?
You have to let it play out, imo, otherwise I have no idea why anyone would have bought in, in the first place.
(Top-slicing is another completely different ball of wax however....)
Good point SGF. If we find 10% He concentration on Tai, 31p unrisked tagged to Tai will easily be mad cheap for entry (bottom), with 51p as target sp (unrisked Tai + risked others) before the other targets are drilled.
Please DYOR and run some numbers on EXCEL or equivalent software
Heaven forbid borrowing to buy on AIM. Just thought I'd add my 2p.
Shareholders and Directors are not the same entity.
They will eventually rob us by way of shorting, dilution and other ways. Be gone long before that starts.
PIs are not wanted by big investor/ players. Too expensive to maintain. They'll want us gone an Directors will have to comply as leverage for big bucks like £50million.
Search Ben Turney on Twitter. Read his tweets about shareholders vs directors. He's been both. I met him and he's genuine but now constrained as a AIM director.
Blubay
“…change of government,…”
Yes, longer term this would cause me some concern.
"Why would anyone want to derisk?"
Lots of reasons, but if they were going to do so then they'd probably have done it pre-drill or will do as the SP approaches the current NAV risked estimate (25.1p). A confirmed Helium discovery will obviously send it higher, and people will derisk at that point too (e.g. at 30 or 33p). Failure to confirm a discovery at Tai (e.g. geological migration) will send it lower, pending news from further drills. Then there's all the subsequent risks, like Covid-19 collapsing the Tanzanian economy (or the drill crew), change of government, etc. I'm optimistic but I understand why people choose to derisk or 'sell on news' if they're not invested long term.
@DBD
And those de-risked values are based on low concentrations (4%) and the hope/expectation is that we could be higher than that. Reading your figures just goes to show that there is little point (again IMO) of selling before the results are known.
Only reason could possibly be someone who was in from the very early days at 2p-5p entry point.
Agreed ST
You won't get to 40p without a discovery now IMO. Therefore, once you get to 40p you are de-risked.
You'd only want to de-risk to eliminate the chance of failure, so that needs to be done before the actual well is complete.
If the first well fails, then you may/will see a price drop as that will create uncertainty, and then it will be too late to de-risk.
However, I have no plans to de-risk at all now. All the indications are that they will report something substantial over the next 1-2 weeks, and then I can just relax and know my initial investment is safe.