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@Magoo247, familiarity or not, I think this is very likely the case. Particularly having lost a drill stem 9m into a ‘zone’. ‘Once bitten twice shy’ (pun intended).
Let’s hope our patience will be rewarded.
GLA
You can’t extrapolate the time for the first drill onto the other drills.
They will be leading about the strata here, and this will help with future drills.
@Magoo247
Thank you for that - that’s really encouraging. I’m relaxed about how things are going, and if the overall drill campaign takes an extra 2 months (assuming we do get great discovery in Tai), then who really cares.
@Joshwaa
In regards to opportunity cost, it’s clear the drilling campaign will now be extended (assuming they do the 3 drills and even the potential 4th drill), but if this is a discovery on Tai (I’m confident), then it may be a few more months, but years is really stretching it.
I’d happily take an extension of 3 months to complete the drills/appraisals with high HE% on all wells. Oh boy, happy days indeed IMO
The other point to consider is that Mitchell Drilling have payment options as shares in the next drills, so if they assess Tai-1 as being a real find, then they may well place a rig at each site to speed up the process and also their return on investment. I think this is why Tai-1 is being worked through very carefully, as it's results will be the determining factor in all the future planning.
I just think that the operation is being extremely carefully managed at this point in time, and when we get results, good or poor, they will will make the decisions going forward.
Remember there is a share allocation incentive for the management to complete three wells by the end of Q4, so I think once this well is completed it will be capped and move on to the next two wells. If TAI 1 is the most promising return to do an appraisal well towards the end of Q4, cutting it fine I know, but this well must be completed within a week for sure.
I'm not familiar with oil/gas - read this and nicked from twitter.
Investors not familiar with oil/gas exploration need to understand that if a well is completed faster than expected then it usually translates to a duster. If a well is taking longer than planned it's usually good news. You have to drill through pay zones very slowly!
What I do have is patience !
Injameswetrust, that's indeed one hypothesis. One that would still require a reassessment of schedule and expectations as it again deviates from the original plan as described at the outset (always expected some bumps, but that doesn't preclude revision).
It may be positive, it be less so, whichever, I think it wise, at least for me, to reevaluate the new timescale that emerges from this (very promising) drill.
Joshwaa
In the event this well is successful, there will be a step change in company value and hence capital available. So ramping up drilling if they wish should be entirely in their gift.
The longer this takes the better in alot of ways.
HE1 are taking thier time to ensure best possible outcomes.
More time for investors and potential buyers to see the probability of success.
A first successful drill derisks all others.
I'd love to wake up tomorrow and see good news after good news. But I think the Share price will grow more with confidence and that takes time.
GLA
Tom
From the May 2021 Investor presentation page 17 …
“• Q1 / Q2 2021: 200km Seismic COMPLETED
• Q2 / Q3 2021: 3x exploration wells (4th optional well)
• Q3 / Q4 2021: Field Appraisal Drilling and 3D Seismic
• 2022 / 2023: Fast track into production”
Plans can change (particularly if we make a significant discovery).
GLA
Dont forget what we learn during this first drill will be incorporated into the planning for the next drills so i expect faster progress.... anytime now DM will give us the mother of all RNS's!
1 drill per site plus appraisal well somewhere. That's 1 hole per site. Consecutive not concurrent
Been thinking about this myself. Thankfully I've no need to access the monies I've invested here, so am in for the long haul, but the timescale has changed dramatically from this first drill attempt.
The longer the wait for the results here, the more the entire schedule extends since this drill will have a multiplying effect of the timescale for every other drill. Even if we got news tomorrow, you still have to take the time spent on this site and multiply that against the rest of the project.
I think it may be prudent to sit down at the weekend and go over this again to address my expectations as this could easily be stretching into the years, in which case opportunity cost could well become a factor.
1 drill per site plus appraisal well somewhere.
Yep, the plan was for 3 wells by end-Q3 followed by a 4th optional well. However, as I previously noted, just needs a significant discovery at Tai-1 for plans to change. For example (my speculation) …
Move to full appraisal at Tai-1, followed by production?
Farm out other targets?
Acquisition?
GLA
Forgive me if this has already been covered previously but my understanding is there are 3/4 sites? and 3 drills per site?
I thought the whole thing as a 3-6 month drilling exercise but its 2 months now just for one drill and we still by the looks of it, have another week or two to go. So at this rate its a 24 month + operation to drill the sites? (Plus you have the time to go to each location and set up.
Are He1 going to do multiple drills at the same time or will it be this slow for each individual drill?
(Starting to get lost a bit in the whole time line and expectancy now).