The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Sorry the reference to HCM should be FRUSICA-1
gsk has submitted a supplementary biologics application to be assessed by 24/08/24 by fda, this seems to cover a similar population to the endometrial cancer submission for fru*****inib + sintilimab.
the gsk study is called ruby, the results of both studies are to be published. as i follow both companies i will update when more is known.
Its very likely UK and Eurozone along with Asia will end up with declining interest rates on the back of receding inflation, US being the odd dude out.
Its a long time since this scenario last played out, but given the chronic undervaluation's of UK stocks this can only act as a tailwind ..
FTSE once again pushes through 8000 mark, several global markets making new highs too!
Its a bull run in all but name..
I think the BB rules may be different in HK, I think there is a mandate in the company articles that allows the Board to make a BB and to hold shares in treasury…..they do this to meet share options and other staff awards rather than just issue new shares and this is relatively minor in terms of $ values.
I assume that a major BB program would need to be announced to the market and purchases disclosed regularly…they would also need to buy from CKHH in a connected transaction to maintain the % holding so it would be quite a complex disclosure environment and would not happen quietly….
(touched ‘post message’ before adding “?” )
If the company is buying back, at what time scale, it should be made known to the shareholders?
Quietly buying back
The Board will need to formulate a dividend / leverage/ capital policy and be prepared to implement it in 2025/26. I think they were asked this by an analyst at the FY results call.
They currently have about USD 800m / £600m/ HKD 6bn in cash / equivalents of which I suspect 50-60% could be considered surplus to current operational needs
A hk$1 dividend (10p) would cost about £85m
A buy back of 5% of shares £125m
M&A includes product in-licensing, they have o/s commitments for Taz in this respect, but have headroom for further deals.
China was encouraging companies to enhance their value…..and not to sit on cash….
I dont expect anything to change this year.
Bit of divergence between the other two stocks on my watch list, Innovent and Beigene.
Should we start lobbying the board for a divi with all this cash, I would rather this than an acquisition.
It is good to see the sp maintaining its position. Hopefully the Clinical data presented at the AACR which concluded yesterday might have ‘gone well and received appropriate attention’.
Agreed, US inflation is proving 'sticky' although many inflationary trends are down, all the signs of a top.
China US relations appear to be on the mend, sort of if a little fractious.
I still think M & A is the most likely outcome here, so await with patience ..
Should have said 9 May for Takeda results. TAK is listed in Japan and US, and no time set out on the Takeda website .
1pencil - US inflation higher is not good news re outlook for US / HK interest rate expectations and USD strength.
With most HCM sales in Yuan they will be down by a few percent when converted to USD - although returns from the $800m cash pile will be higher to partly offset the profit effect..
Takeda reports its Q4 sales in about 4 weeks - but they will already know the value achieved in Jan-Mar. They “sold” $15m in the 7 weeks post FDA approval during their Q3. Not sure that all of this will be in active prescription as there is likely an element of stocking up the distribution pipeline. Say 10m was stocking and 5m dispensed, then we could expect those sales to recur each month plus an increase each month (Jan 5+5, Feb 10+5, Mar 15+5) would get to $45m Q4 sales and these would continue to increase. If they are ahead of this they will be doing very well indeed. But lets see.
Its all planned well in advance, many posts alluded to this ..
On a day, when the company gives some favourable news the sp, generally if not invariably, achieves downward trajectory. Today, in the absence of any news, it’s gone up by 7-8% both at HKSE and LSE. Nearly 45k AIM shares traded within the first hour. Not a big rise in the sp but it’s not negligible either.
Any reason/s?
An opportunity to showcase their entire ‘assets’ in a major venue. Nice efforts by the team to display their poster presentations. Keenly waiting to see the final results from the global Multi centre clinical trials for surufatinib.
The AACR presentations are not what we might expect….. early investigations for 3 new candidates and several for surufatinib in combination or different types of cancer. Very much experimental stuff.
Still waiting for the Sovlep results to be presented in detail….I think they said that would be mid-year.
HCM has made good on its pipeline promises so far this year….it now only has a Taz bridging study and a possible Savo submission highlighted this year.
There are now a number of submissions with the Regulatory Authorities.
Fruq - GC in China, CRC in EU and JPN, with Sintilimab BTD in China
Sovlep -
Savo - confirmatory and new indication for MET-14 EXON skipping.
That represents a significant boost to sales by mid 2025…
To do list - get a partner for Sovlep and start globalised development.
..ruse didn't last long, *good effort though..
* terrible effort, more transparent than a sheet of air..
lol
— nda accepted and both fru*****inib and sintilimab granted priority review, following breakthrough therapy designation in july 2023 —
— first regulatory filing for fru*****inib for use in combination with a leading immune checkpoint inhibitor —
par for the course, prop traders mark it down on any good news, try and dampen momentum while working buy orders.
it would be nice if they marked it down properly, then we can all load up lol
Caixin survey shows China’s March factory activity at its most robust in 13 months
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/01/china-april-2024-caixin-manufacturing-pmi.html
CKHH is having a management reshuffle whether it will mean anything for HCM remains to be see. HCM did get a bit more of a mention in the annual results as it is one of the bright spots within the conglomerate. That said, HCM is reported as a financial asset alongside CKHH investment in a Canadian oil producer (it used to hold a larger share of a smaller producer and merged it about 5 years ago). If CKHH needs funds these stakes are most likely for sale, however with gearing of 16% this seems unnecessary at present.
Commentators suggested some asset shuffling within the CK Group might result from the management changes - although there are no new faces at the top table.
Apart from Mr To representing CKHH and Ms Shih as a further director, HCM seems to be structured to operate independently. There are many pharma cos under development in China, consolidation will happen/can be expected to be encouraged by Beijing to create national champions…..HCM needs to be part of that discussion.
China will make it easier to move capital in and out of the country and promote financial market deregulation, a senior forex regulator said on Friday, as Beijing seeks to woo foreign investors amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/29/china-will-further-enhance-capital-account-opening-fx-official-says.html
Thank you Jatw for your opinion.
More than 20 year old “budding” pharma company. based in a country with stable governance and economy. 5000 personnel with 1200 working in oncology and immunology. 3 oncology drugs already in the pharma market in China, one is marketed in the USA, pending approval in Europe. Finally, attractive pipeline and a healthy positive balance in the bank. Market value a mere 3 billion!
Yet, no news of ‘expression of interest’ for takeover (or merger) from bigger companies.
(Possibly, that is the only hope for long term holders)
Naive treatment does mean no previous treatment - I suspect surgical removal of the tumour would also be acceptable within this definition as it does not involve pharmaceutical treatment.
No indication of priority review (maybe to come?) but we can anticipate approval in mid 2025 and new revenue in H2 25. The commercialisation would be with AZ under the licensing deal.