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Https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/deals-dashboards/china-m-a-activity-pharmaceutical-industry/
Not much has happened according to this article….esp when compared to the US where it seems a new deal by a mega cap to acquire a company for a few billion happens monthly.
Beigene / Innovent / HCM / Junshi etc all seem to be well capitalised but not to be able to go andbuy a competitor. I am expecting the CCP will start wanting to create national champions before too long….
For a while M & G have fluctuated their holding with part of it being short, something in the order of 5m shares or so - this position has now been reversed making their holding 100%, you would have to go back quite far to see the last time this occurred.
https://sc.hkexnews.hk/gb/di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm2.aspx?fn=CS20231102E00003&sa2=an&sid=344192&corpn=HUTCHMED+(China)+Ltd.&sd=04%2f11%2f2022&ed=04%2f11%2f2023&cid=0&sa1=cl&scsd=04%2f11%2f2022&sced=04%2f11%2f2023&sc=13&src=MAIN&lang=EN&g_lang=en&
That's the answer I was looking for, even if my question was a little confusing.
Good run recently along with a few other Chinese biotech's.
not sure exactly what you mean by other recognised combinations.
for tori - none in us, it has some mono therapies approved in china and has several combinations in progress. see slide 15 of their jpmorgan presentation on their investors page.
for hcm - they have hedged their bets with pd-1 using sintilimab (innovent) for fr*****inib combos…..both drugs linked with lilly and tori for surufatinib…and az has linked savo with tagrisso.
combos may be good at extending the franchise, but clearly the patient affordability means the total margin compared to mono therapy may well be lower….i am pretty sure az is using savo to extend the life of tagrisso and protect from generic versions when they become eligible.
they are exploring taz with their haemoncology portfolio.
Are there any other recognised combinations Jatw ?
In what could be good long term news Junshi has got its PD-1 treatment approved by FDA.
Toripalinab is the tori in the SURTORI combination trial….if this is much more effective than Surufatinib as a solo treatment this may be a new route to explore taking Surufatinib global. (Still awaiting news of their strategy).
A nice surprise from HK overnight as HCM has risen a further 10% today.
The Chinese gambling spirit may push this higher in the short term, but I dont expect this to stick long after the PDUFA date when there will be profit taking.
But not complaining as we will likely see 325p this morning in London.
Bullish about the Chinese market, Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is ramping up efforts to cooperate with local partners to help build a more innovative digital-empowered ecosystem in the country, said a Takeda senior executive.
Ramona Sequeira, president of the global portfolio division at the company, said: "We are in a stage of bringing many new innovative products to China. China's growth is strong, and we believe that in the next decade, the market will become our largest after the United States."
https://investinchina.chinaservicesinfo.com/s/202310/25/WS6538c3d5498ed2d7b7e9e565/takeda-ramps-up-efforts-in-china-market-to-enhance-local-ties.html
Cheers Jatw, will take a look.
Not a bad performance this week all things considered, held gains across the pond too.
Weightings for CNCR ETF as below puts HCM ahead of heavy weights such as Bristol Myers Squibb, could be down to merger I guess if both funds held the same stock.
1pencil / Davey and others - Innocare Pharma popped into my line of sight reading some recent pharma articles….
They are valued mostly as cash holdings….smaller than HCM first US NDA expected mid 2024 so PDUFA would be mid 25.
Not one to buy now, but may be worth tracking over the next couple of years to see how they are going.,,,any views?
It is a China company with a HK listing ref 9969.hk
Back to being the largest mcap on AIM - and would be v high in the FT250.
Big on AIM has not often been a comfortable position….
The PDUFA date creeps ever closer……and
we await the Amdiz read out
And Sovlep NDA submission plus any further partnering news.
BTW Takeda 2023 Q3 results were pretty poor reflecting a failed Ph3 and a failed confirmatory Ph3 trial. Profits were down 70%…..they will be looking for a bounce back next year in their oncology division..lets hope they get the opportunity to promote Fruq in the US soon.
It's yet another Buy rating from Investors Chronicle
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/10/26/the-aim-100-2023-10-to-1/
Hutchmed 4th largest holding following merger with Loncar 23rd Oct 23
https://www.rangecncr.com/
Here's the Crest loan data covering that period, borrowing went up hand in hand with put ratio, this was well planned organised imo.
Jun-22 2.90%
May-22 3.17%
Apr-22 4.15%
Mar-22 6.72%
Feb-22 6.69%
Jan-22 7.42%
Dec-21 5.79%
Nov-21 3.37%
Not convinced Jatw, we have had so many 'events' like this which turned out to be non-events it makes me sceptical, we can all watch the share price go down then pick from a selection of 'events' but no one really knows if that is accurate or not.
The only thing which has made a notable difference revolves around global interest rates coupled with China economy, Hutchmed tanked after rates started going up and recovered almost back to where it started following Covid exit by China.
We also know short borrowing jumped significantly around this time, look at the spike in puts ratio, this was well planned by those moving the chess pieces imo
https://images.fintel.io/us-hcm-put-call-ratio.png
Corruption reviews will impact all as it is aimed as much at the administration as the pharma cos.
However we can hope that it will affect specialist innovative younger companies less. Generics and easily substituted (cheap?) products would appear more susceptible. I would hope that Drs will choose to use innovative more effective products regardless of price/corrupt practices by competitors (I may be being naive).
Perhaps its the weaker players that will ultimately lose out, hence long/short strategy mentioned below?
Astra mentioned it would be a benefit in the longer term
Strange choice of names 'Junshi' at least in Japanese
HK seems to be ignoring the China regulatory activity….or atleast allowing optimism about global revenues for HCM to override that headwind.
It has recovered opening losses to less than 1% fall compared to 6-8% in UK/US yesterday.
Bodes well….but I would not be surprised to see some resistance / profit taking happen ahead and after the PDUFA decision…..
No, and this is why -
'What are you doing 1pencil? are you buying?'
Closed at equivalent 306p in HK, pitch up here and make base ready for summit PDUFA ..
If we take a one year view the figures look slightly different:
HCM+115%
Innovent +71%
Beigene +7.17%
Junshi -22%
Looking at your earlier comparisons below Jatw, HCM's relative performance could be due to market consolidation speculation post Takeda deal.
Hedge fund favourite is to go long the strongest player and short the weakest, thereby creating a natural hedge.
------------------------------------------
HCM certainly has momentum behind it…..but china pharma recent performance has been selective- last 6m
HCM+13%
Innovent +10%
Beigene -23%
Junshi -38%
This has understandably had a good run….if it keeps going it will be around 375p at PDUFA date.
I wonder when some more significant profit taking will set in?
What are you doing 1pencil? are you buying?
It cant be anymore than 20 posts since you were selling at 200p or thereabouts, now at 300p you are buying ?