Rainbow Rare Earths CEO George Bennett makes the investment case for #RBW at London South East. Watch the full video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
21st September 2021 Updated at 7pm Harbour Energy Final Trading Volumes.
Buy Volumes: 1,857,286, of which 195,221 its an uncrossed trade or [UT].
Sell Volumes: 317,168
Unknown Volumes: 14,054
Or click here below for the hbr screenshot.
Good luck to everyone. NoFear(*__*).
Sorry guys. I had to shorten the Reddi.t Web link about the harbor final trades image.
Try this one instead: shorturl.at/gGJSZ
Thanks for your post and kind words. Hope you're having an amazing night on the 'juice'
Here are tonight final Harbour Energy Trading Volumes updated at 7pm.
Click on the link below to see the image screenshot of HBR final trades.
Good luck. NoFear.(*__*)
No fear my chap sorry for the late reply been out at sea and just pulled into sunny Dartmouth and not aimed at you at all or miles,just a general observation on these boards seems to be a case that some seem to be encouraging selling when you should be buying and Visa a versa
Solder did I read somewhere you once were a market maker,mover matcher or whatever the name is.;-)
Maybe you could explain the mechanics of what moves the markets to the good folks on the board.The keys to the markets so to speak that you wont find in books.Because the authors dont know or do but don't want you to know
Oil up markets up oil down mkts down etc.
Amazing how many cargo ships are just sat out at sea waiting to get into docks weeks late.No doubt with food on board going rotten.
Amazing how so many on these boards can see what multi billion pound hedge funds are missing.
Anyway good news Ramsey just come out with a book 101 recipes for turf.
As for the energy sector no doubt when the crisis really kicks in next yr the stazi in power will take a leaf out of Mexico book and take control.
Common prosperity and forthe good of the nation being the new buzz words.
Anyway of to the pub to take advantage b4the brewerys run out of hops or barley
ATB folks dividends is the answer short term.
1929 stock market crash took them till 1959 to break even
Learn the market indicators and your always be ahead of the curve
Imo atb gla ;-)
Here are the latest Harbour trading volumes update at 14:42 Bst. excluding hidden or late reported trades.
Buy Volumes: 236,703
Sell Volumes: 211,558
Unknown Volumes: 10,802
Good luck to everyone. NoFear(*__*).
Nice post. It's great to see so many constructive posts all showing that we're researching as much as possible about the Harbour Energy company and not just for day trading as some have been doing to name a few like Sauk(OLIVIA) and chum friends like DBNO.
Anyhow, here are the latest Harbour trading volumes update at 12:11 Bst. excluding hidden or late reported trades.
Buy Volumes: 146,973
Sell Volumes: 143,737
Unknown Volumes: 563
Good luck to everyone as we get very close to Thursday make or break day. NoFear(*__*).
Big shout to the harbour chat redddi.t followers.(*_*)
We should also remember hedging is a tool to smooth out the peaks and the troughs, if in the New Year we have a mild spring and gas prices drop through the floor, which they will invariably do at some point, we will be slapping Harbour on the back for locking in prices! Yes it's frustrating to think of the lost revenue but it's there to stop the company going bust in the down times, when they can't service their debt; can't secure financing, then get swallowed up by a bigger company for a pittance! Hhhhhhhm now why does that sounds familiar!
Hi simply arrogant- I mean soder - thanks for the update. A small amount of knowledge can indeed be dangerous in small minded people. Less attitude would be welcomed as no need for this. The point is it should have been finished and is behind schedule irrespective of the model and as a result we are all missing out on substantial profits. And I doubt their hedging has been great either but this should not be hedged at low prices and is a significant value once on board.
That's a good pointer, Shal. Cheers. I looked up PMO and Chrysaor's 2020 ARs and it doesn't look pretty. Chrysaor has 1.23 billion therms hedged for 2021, 1.4 billion therms for 2022 and 1.14 billion therms for 2023 in the low 40p range. They don't break out what %s are Swaps and options, but they do state Collars and that implies there's a ceiling and that is never good in a rising price environment like this. PMO has 80 million therms hedged for 2022 and 68 mill therms in 2021 H2.
The current per therm pricing is circa 180p and even if we assume an average of 100p for 2022, that's a revenue loss of £840 mill/$1.14 billion for 2022. Even 2021 H2 will see a significant revenue hit on say the 600 mill therms hedged for H2 ($600 million or so) - this is just for Chrysaor. I'm sure the market is seeing this and this is why there hasn't been a meaningful breakout recently even with higher gas prices.
Tolmount should bring in 500 mill therms next year = the equivalent of circa 25k boepd production, and that is a plus if it's unhedged.
Had enough ! I don't known whats with this share but it ain't budging much since corona conditions improved. Tolmont, merger, good brent, high gas prices etc etc improving economies ain't diddly squat without actual price rises. Is deflation coming- Heaven knows. But we're still under 20p for all that. I'm watching airlines rise, and rise so that's where i'm hauling my bottom- where the big action is. Intl airlines up 11% yesterday 6% so far today. All the best everyone we've had a good laugh. Take care all
Shal100. Do you think they have floors and collars?
This is a one off post just to clarify the nature of hedging. The annual reports of pmo and chrysaor both states their heading is mixture of swaps and puts. So I guess they kept the same form under Harbour. Hope that helps - see you all back at reddit.
Posts like your just annoy me Simplyme…or maybe I should call you Simplystupid or Simplyignorant.
Google Humber Gathering System. Let me help you.
Ahhh that’s right. As you can see the platform is the responsibility and cost of Dana and kellas. Not harbour!!!
Then also…. Below. Why so you think this is booked in if they not progressing full speed.
Finally you can look up the futures contracts pricing for U.K. gas all the way through 2022. It’s at multiples of historic levels.
So pipe down and put your nappy back on.
So when it costs $3.6m every day tolmount (before costs) is not running why are they not fixing it ASAP - and why not throwing everything at it? It is a much more major issue as personally this is making a huge difference to our sp and gas won’t stay this high forever!!
thanks for clarifying @Soder
and as I mentioned: nice to see that your other calculations do not have to be divided by 2 ;)
It’s very clearly net 20-25 for hbr. It always has been and it’s been very clearly stated numerous times.
If you have a field that will be 20k a day net production that comes online half way through the year it will add 10k to you overall average daily production FOR THAT YEAR IT CAME ONLINE. Basic maths.
As tolmount is now coming on at year end it will add zero to 2021 average daily production. However, it will add 20k for 2022.
guys, thanks for clarifying. If its 20-25 for HBR, that d be a nice suprise for me and I mean it like this (no irony). Until now I was calculating with 10-12, so: all cool if you re right.
as for the hedges true that with options it d be the best thing, but I doubt they bought puts. 2 way collars could be possible of course
what I d like to add is that HBR is probably currently hedging winter 2024 revenues and here gas prices have gone up substantially as well. Not to the extent of current spot or coming winter, but still more around 30% more than half a year ago.
Excluding Tolmount HBR should be around 80-82% hedged in gas btw. And around 50% in oil. Still, selling 20% of your production in gas at spot prices... lifts average prices quite substantially at current levels.
So I m of course positive as well on HBR - just repeating that short term (till end of October) brace for impact - and dont sell.
Soder is correct. That 20 - 25 kboepd figure is net to Harbour with the other 50% going to Dana.
In reality, do we really expect gas prices to stay at these levels for any extended period of time - it's unlikely. And Harbour is unable to take advantage of the current spot prices as they're circa 90% hedged at 44p/thern. However, what'll be interesting to read from the H1 report is the nature of the hedges. If they're Swaps, then that 44p/therm price is locked in this year and next for the aforementioned production. if the hedges are options either via Puts (very good) OR 2-Way Collars (a bit better), then HBR can squeeze out more revenue from their Gas sales. The report will reveal all.
That’s the number net to harbour so I’m with Soder on this. Dana always talked about 28kbd net to them in their updates.
Energy sector down 3% in US trading. crap day.
I m afraid you should be wrong with this @Soder:
"Tolmount final commissioning underway with production start-up expected around the end of July, adding 20-25 kboepd (net, Harbour 50 per cent)"
No fear… the 20-25k is NET to harbour. There is no divide by 2!!!!
The 10k you are referencing is because it was due to come on stream in July so would have contributed 10k per day to ave daily production OVER THE FULL YEAR. Ie because it is 20k over half a year so adds 10k net to harbour for the year. But it’s not coming in July anymore.
Hence, I am correct.
Hi miles44 and Soder. All the indices are still massively down but Harbour held up well thankfully.
Thanks for your constructive posts. Good Luck. NoFear.(*__*).
Let me please quickly update everyone at close of day.
Harbour Energy last seen at 18:41 bst.
Buy Volumes: 589,464
Sell Volumes: 364,141
Unknown Volumes [?] 241,733 of which 225,520 was reported under the [UT] section with share price £3.614 at 16:35 bst
Published 4 hours ago by S & P Global Platts 20/9/2021
Read in particular where it says and I quote:
"Despite the year-on-year declines, Platts Analytics expects UK gas production to recover given that major summer maintenance work has been completed.
"We expect production to continue improving as we move out of the maintenance season, while several new fields (Tolmount, Elgood and Finlaggan), are expected to start production this winter," Chou said.
The startup of Tolmount in particular, operated by Harbour Energy, has been pushed back a number of times.
Free to read full article here below. No Paywall-No sign Ups -Just click to accept the cookies.(*_*)
divide that by 2 as HBR holds 50%
"With expected plateau rates of 20-25 kboepd net to Harbour, Tolmount was expected to contribute just over 10 kboepd to Harbour’s 2021 production"
U.K. gas prices settled at 189p a therm.
On an apples for apples basis with oil that is equivalent to $154 a barrel of oil equivalent (boe)
Let that sink in.
Even though we’ll hedged. For tolmount that means
Cash cash cash cash cash cash cash cash cash.
Hbr net from tolmount is 20-25k not per day. Let’s take the midpoint of that at 22.5k. That’s 8.2m boe production for a year (365 x 22.5k)
At $154 boe that is additional revenues gust from tolmount of $1.26bn!!!!!!!!!!
The opex per boe on tolmount is prob about $10-12 a boe so ebitda contribution could be over $1bn on just this one field coming on line shortly.
Wakey wakey. You can take a horse to water….