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But was it a dromedary, Bactrian, my man Humphrey or the lesser spotted Saudi Quattro. Camels you know SK.
But was it a dromedary, Bactrian, my man Humphrey or the lesser spotted Saudi Quattro. Camels you know SK.
What was the oil price when usa attacked Iraq.?
Safe part of the world - look at your windfall tax bill
The level of brainwashing going on is off the scale Rookie
Another few billion of tax payers money being wasted on tests not fit for purpose and used to lock folk up
Must be the only deadly virus known to man kind that need ed a multi billion pound advertising campaign and trillions spent on test trying to find it
“Brent prices have been consistently trading above USD $100 mark every single day of this year so far, now if Brent prices remain above even USD $70 into 2023 and possibly 2024 (btw, present forecasts state very much higher Brent price levels and for lot longer), HBR SP then clearly has the potential to be £10+ here which is actually very logical based on company assets, production potential and fundamentals.”
Zelensky, man of the people, freedom fighter!!
Such utter *******s.
They talk about Putin banning opposition party’s and now zelensky does it it’s just protecting ‘democracy’ and the right thing to do because it suits their agenda of big bad Russia.
Here’s an idea, we should keep our noses out of everyone’s else’s buisness and stop fueling wars around the world like we are world police.
The west are as bad if not worse than Russia for terrorising countrys who don’t want our intervention.
The Reality is the West want this war to be ongoing to sustain the higher price environment, they couldn’t give two hoots about Ukraine really.
Anyway, finally a positive sign of the start of an uptrend on the TA for us, if our sellers have dried up and with our buy backs we could/should really motor back to £4.50 very quickly.
Bans the op
Must be the only war in history sk where all world leaders actors comedians and there cat fly into on a weekly basis for a walk around
Then you got the lovely fella Zelensky bans any media that criticises him also bans any opposition parties.Makes it illegal for male 16 to 60 yr olds to leave the country and anyone who deserts faces getting shot.
In the meantime the rest of the countrys at the beach.
For an ex actor hes not done too bad with his multi million pound mansions around the world
Is it a war or money laundering exercise as boris sends another half a billion.
Theres been a war going on in the donbass area for the last 9 yrs.
Must be similar to the worlds deadliest virus when all world leaders and the queen had a get together.All sat down for pics 2 meters apart masked up and when the cameras were off had a good old fashioned knees up.....
Funny old world were living in
Interesting licensing rounds coming up globally some of which which may also turn out to be pretty lucrative for Harbour Energy who are already active within the region (due to PMO).
“To date, about 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent has been discovered in the region and with many nations launching their first major licensing rounds, exploration is set to increase exponentially in the coming decade and production will likely follow.”
“Active in the region are several international oil majors namely, Australia-listed, FAR; supermajors Shell, TotalEnergies, Exxonmobil and bp; London-listed, Harbour Energy (previously, Premier Oil); Norway’s PetroNor; Iraq’s Star Oil; China’s Addax Petroleum; Malaysia’s Petronas; America’s Kosmos Energy; Algeria’s Sonatrach; London-listed, Capricorn Energy and; Ireland’s Tullow Oil – the latter two currently in the process of merging.”
You stirred up the copy and past gang dave ho ho ho
The media seems to me should come with a warning
Bad for wealth and your health ;-)
“Nigeria Says OPEC+ Has Little Spare Oil Production Capacity”:
“‘Even Saudi Arabia’ is running out of room to produce more”
“Sad that Nigeria didn’t fulfill quota: Minister Timipre Sylva”
The risk - When the war ends brent will drop $30 in one go, That was said Saudi's yesterday on Bloomberg. This will happen at some stage. I want to be out before that happens for sure===============================================
Possibly true about the drop, although wouldn't bet exactly on how much it will drop....But this is only short lived sentiment reaction not based on facts.....
In reality with the war ended you get, growth and expansion, les fear factor on the markets, still sanction in place, and then you always have OPEC and USA that will make sure oil prices will remain above certain levels.....
The point been if you invest for a short time frame like a gambler, then sure odds might be higher, but the chances that you get it right are much lower.
When the war will end? On which terms? What will be the effect on oil price? How long it will last?
Good luck with your calculations.
I am happy to know that by end of the year we have no debit and less edges in place, on top of been invested in a muchly needed commodity in a safe geographical part of the world.
By the way awaiting Indonesian drilling, talking about catalyst news...
Let's see if we can have a sensible debate.
So we had an uncontrolled spike in the 10 yr yeild(start of an implosion in the debt mrkt) followed by a pan sell off across the board.(hence the tip for keeping an eye on the us 10 yr yeild key to the debt mrkt and stock mkt.
The fed and ECB came out and said they would use any means even unconventional means nessecarry to stop what theyve caused.Thats them admitting to rigging the mrkts
Which means in layman's terms the debt bubble is starting to burst and is being stopped from bursting by adding more debt to it.Try making that one up
Now the money flow index is showing less money flowing through the economy than the last 6 or 8 recessions back to the 1960s.So with all the trillions printed in the last few yrs theres still no liquidity.They need to keep printing just to sustain levels of where were at and will create one emergency to the next to carry on printing.
The fed are operating a reverse repo where there selling treasureis with the intention of buying them back at a higher price in a day or so.
To create the illusion that there is liquidity in the economy.
Now to do all of this they are back to printing trillions go look at there balance sheet
So where last month and the months prior they were supposedly going to clear there assets and reduce qe there policy has gone the opposite.
Now the mkts sold off on the thought of the easy money being phased out and start of implosion in debt mkt (mkts hit record highs with the global economy shut down=easy money).
Now there actions are massively inflationary and with rates suppressed and the promise of more easy money it will drive money into the mkts.(hopefully seems to have worked for the last couple of days and long may it last).
Big question is how long will it last.Fed chair last week video posted."The $s under threat and will start introducing digital currency 2023" there in may lie the answer
All above Is factual not theory apart from the 2023
So were being lied to on a major scale a recession would be a step up from where the economy is really at and inflation is set to surge.
Which will create more volatility.
You wont that on your rice krispies box or bloomberg;-)
Brent prices were already above $100 before Russia attacked Ukraine, Oil price tend will only go higher from here while crude markets remains extremely tight ahead:
Energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg:
The risk - When the war ends brent will drop $30 in one go, That was said Saudi's yesterday on Bloomberg. This will happen at some stage. I want to be out before that happens for sure.
Good analyse and lets remember that HBR market cap was above £5bill, with still debt and edging in place, if wasn't for the Profit Levy.....
In the next month or so I am expecting catalyst news to push the sp back to higher levels.
Conclusion the WT consultation and possible favourable change of terms for NS Oilers.
In absence of this, a RNS from Hbr clarifying the minimal impact that WT will have on the bottom line profit.
On this I suspect the company has been quite till now because of the consultation from the Gov. on the matter, in other words they could not say that the tax has minimal impact on the profit, and then go and complain to the Government about it....
The we are going to have the H1 results.......
Great analysis sekford and your right in every sense
Your just missing a crucial part which is that your not just invested in hbr your also invested in the stock mkt which seems to get missed by many and probably the sole reason for frustrations felt by many
and where the mkts go hbr goes.Another positive for hbr month or so ago was UT went through 65 million ish I think in the highs 4s.
Craig in answer to your question did I sell yes
But not because I dont think hrb is going up I think it is.Be plenty of ups and downs along the way
Its just that something else I trade in was tanking and has bigger swings ;-)
Bit like hopscotch, we didnt have bmxs as kids and I just love a gamble
Have I timed it wrong maybe wouldnt be the first time and wont be the last.Soon found out monday
“So when the saner individuals on this board say the sp should be double what it is now, they are not being crazy optimists, they are being absurdly pessimistic.”
I concur. Brent prices have been consistently trading above USD $100 mark every single day of this year so far, now if Brent prices remain above even USD $70 into 2023 and possibly 2024 (btw, present forecasts state very much higher Brent price levels and for lot longer), HBR SP then clearly has the potential to be £10+ here which is actually very logical based on company assets, production potential and fundamentals.
Oh good reports
You were doing homework while I was playing on my bmx my maths and English are terrible!
Sorry error made $1700M a year for 10 years using a discount rate of 5% is $13.126bn! Not $8.6273 bn.
The rational way to value a share or a property or really any financial project, is to calculate net present value of a future stream of income. I have done this for Habour on the most conservative of assumptions. First I have taken the company's own estimate of its free cash flow for 2022 ($1.5bn - $1-7bn) and assumed $1.5bn. Second I have added back in the announced dividend of $200M . Third I have assumed that the free cash flow and the dividend remain constant for 10 years. (This is extraordinarily pessimistic. One would expect free cash flow and dividends to increase with rising production, an ending of the bad hedging, a reduction in interest payment and the effect over time of inflation.) Fourth I have used a discount rate of 5%. In other words I have valued a $1 earned in a year's time as worth 5% less than a $1 earned today and so on. 5% is used for calculating the net present value of property where the rent is fixed over time). Fifth (and this really is ludicrous) I have assume that after 10 years the company has zero value (That assumption is obviously preposterously pessimistic. Each year the company is spending $1.4bn CAPEX to ensure that it is able to grow and produce so long as the world needs hydro carbons). But what is the net present value of a stream of income of $1.7bn a year over just 10 years and then nothing at all thereafter? It is $8.6273bn. The present stock market value of the company is just $4bn. So when the saner individuals on this board say the sp should be double what it is now, they are not being crazy optimists, they are being absurdly pessimistic.