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After the meeting with our new prime minister Liz I think we will be throwing a hell of a lot of money at various programmes from Appraisels to Development.
I don't think they will be worried about paying down debt a breakneck speed but getting the most out of the WF tax on the investment side. The question is are they better off paying down debt or spend spend spend....And I think it's the latter.
I wouldn't be suprised if we push being debt free back to 2024.....But who knows.
We could need major capex in Zama, Tuna, Andaman, Numerous North Sea projects....
The results will be very very interesting and I'm probably miles out.....
WTFDIK
(Just heard the Q & A about Timpan and they laughed and joked about it "Can I dream" was a comment and "I'll be brave enough to say If you have one success it will lead to multiple prospects that lead to the very big numbers"......
It might be laidbacks post but what do you think neversellshell?
The upcoming results will show after the WT tax that it will be at least mid-2023 before HBR are debt free. That would be £1b a year off debt plus dividends and buybacks IF gas prices stay at current levels and Tolmount performs.
Laidbacks great post from 4th July.....
From year end report, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63
Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$110 = $5.50m
Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$132=$4.76m (say 200p per therm = $140 per boe)
Daily total cash = $15.07m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.87m
Annual operating cashflow =$4,333m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $100m
Less divis $200m
Less buybacks $200m
FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION in 2022 = $2,532m !!
We should be debt free by Christmas 2022 !!
Comrieman, your Post won’t get the recognition it deserves on here because you didn’t say something along the lines of “£10 by year end”.
But your spot on, no chance debt will be sub £B. This is what worry’s me with EIG using our cash to prop the share price while they exit. That is to come out of the £600m the market will be expecting off the debt pile like in Q1. We can only hope the rise in prices can offset that to keep me market happy.
Corn - I think your figures are more realistic. There is also the impact of the 20% windfall tax which from late May will put brakes on.
Great progress though $900m of debt eliminated in six months if your estimate is accurate.
Debt will be over $1 billion in the update 25th August, I can guarantee that and don't see us approaching $500m debt until early 2023 at earliest. Harbour reduced debt by $600m in 1st quarter with top of range production and mega gas prices. There was also little capex spent and we've also had a $100m dividend and buyback in 2nd quarter. Debt will be around $1.3B but still a tremendous set of results and sp should be a lot higher than £3.60.
Well, Andypop could be correct about my £500 million debt figure projection current as of yesterday. Why would I suggest it?. We were yesterday at 22.18 hours,lol, 127 days on since the last debt figure given.
During those 127 days a new 25% tax was introduced about half way through and Tolmount production was initiated early into that period also. Production figures for April and May suggest that we were ahead of production in the first quarter which gave us 18,000 boepd above gas hedged volumes and 60,000 beopd above oil hedged volumes. Reminder, the hedged volumes also collectively give off a little bit over £2 million free cash/day. Have oil unhedged volumes held at over 60,000 boepd on average?. There has been infill drilling and there will also have been some shut downs for maintenance. I think though collectively they could have.
On gas unhedged volumes. Tolmount and Everest LAD well on with a little depletion at Jade South should have seen us hold at 18,000 boepd over hedged volumes during the period. Personally I think it will be in the 20,000 boepd to 30,000 boepd above hedged gas volumes/day average. They will have cleared free cash of average between £7 million and £10 million a day. It could possibly be higher. It almost definitely will not be lower, If at £10 million/day then 1.27 billion pounds cash flow will be reduced by approximatley £350 million capex. If these figures come in then we will be around £500 million debt as we speak. They are optimistic forecasts based on there not being bad news that I don`t know about which with so many fields across Harbour portfolio may be optimistic. Being diversified across many fields is of course also good news.
The Jade South well came on at around an extra 10,000 boepd net to Harbour in January. The value of this well is being ignored by the market in my opinion. It has already produced around 2 million boe net to Harbour at gas prices even after 25% tax of over £100/boe. Hmmm. The fear in the share price was that we would not be able to produce over 70,000 boepd gas and have to start buying in gas at high prices to cover the shortfall in hedged volumes. It was not made clear that Jade South had alleviated those fears in January and the Lad well a few months later and then Tolmount on should have got our heads well and truly above water. We will as I said last night know more on 25th August. There is potentially another £200 million cash flow to be made before 25th August. That gives me a little slack on my £500 million debt projection. Good luck to all holders.