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typo $72 as per my prev. post.
brace yourselves now. 74 WTI coming up.
Agreed SK.
@ADDmeIN probably the wrong policy. If they announce a share buyback that will bring in speculators, it will hike the price up and thats fine but thats not the HBR model.
You will notice that PMO creditors didnt get full value on their debt for share swap, they got 75p on the pound.
Thats a saving of 25% for everyone else who owns the share.
HBR will play the long game. Distressed assets, producing companies that they can settle their debt for cheap.
The team is not stupid but time is a factor for me.
The higher oil prices go, the harder it is for M&A.
The only thing that will quicken this is a credit contraction.
Share price will take a haircut but HBR can pick up assets on sale
Maybe use the cash to buy back the shares from the creditors on the cheap and stop the constant dribble into the market, win / win ?? That way I won’t have to listen to crap about more creditor dumping and the share can move forwards
I think this thing will drop back to 18p or even 17p.
@Plebleens I think you're right about the overhang but I do think a dividend would go a long way.
Investors are looking at consolidation and really superfluous things.
The fact of the matter is, its a good company.
Production output is comparable to something like Aker BP that has about 220k barrels per day with a market cap of $9bn and a dividend. HBR has about 25% more debt which its paying down at a nice rate. Aker BP does not have exposure to other reserves like Falklands, Indonesia & vietnam.
Just with the market cap HBR has 300% upside but again the overhang & no dividend.
The hedging is trash but this is linked with its line of credit as it uses a guaranteed price to secure it.
If I was a betting man, I think HBR are considering developing Falklands, thats when you'll see some real production output.
It has quite a few carbon capture initiatives at production points that will give it an ESG rating and bring in ESG funds.
I've always said this, the dividend is a means of putting HBR on the map and long term I have high hopes for the company.
without the dividend and until the hangover clears, this thing may trend sideways.
Errr yes they were, forties maintenance has been well documented for a while hence the pick up in the May dated (Brent) price (extra revenue for hbr) get over you amateur nit picking , as your fundamental knowledge is somewhat Andy.p like x
Forgot to add that at current demand recovery analysts are calling a 3mmbpd deficit in supply going forward unless OPEC dramatically change the production cuts at next weeks meeting. Iranian barrels will hardly touch the sides . Look at the WTI structure if you want to see how tight the current supply situation is in a rapidly recovering demand country. Look beyond the flat price DBNo b
One positive Bladesman is that at least there was nothing unexpected in the TS. Expecting a couple of % up tomorrow back firmly at 20.60 as usual. Predictable as (nearly) always lol. Looks like a few tiny end of day sells. The algo 's testing the market for (algo) buyers. We'll see though GL
When things don't go as I have hoped, I always try to find a positive. And so, up pops Plebs with his latest post. Thanks, it gives me hope ! Cheers.
If you really believe in this rally , and want instant returns buy oil and collect the backwardation each month. Buying oil companies is a slightly safer bet and with the tail of the Brent curve above $60 out FB or the next 8 years, the hedging opportunities and guaranteed income is easy for all to see. Investment in new production has fallen off a cliff snd when oil demand gets back above 100mm bps the reserves renewal will be left wanting wIth the recent under investment. This current inflation and artificially restrained supply rally will be hard to turn. This is like asking a VlLCC tat full speed to make a u turn. OPeC interventions always lead oil to overshoot the direction of travel. FCF potential in upstream oil is enormous currently. Managed money isn’t even anywhere near extreme levels. Potential returns will over run the ESG luvvies.
The overhang is taking longer than I thought to unwind here but also oil prices have only really taken off in last 2 months that still need to flow through. The Apr 2019 high taken out today and free air up to $86 on the charts. Physical premiums are growing for nSea barrels and East is crying out for more despite china’s attempt to suppress the commodity rally. Backwardstion in Brent structure is akin to when the flat price was at $100. Keep the faith this is undervalued IMO but will take the managed money time to realise and get over their environmental hang up. Inflation trade rules, dollar strength transitory, HBR is well positioned to take advantage as well as buy the assets that the majors get cold feet owning. Good Luck all and fingers crossed for $80 + oil
Price would probably be higher because of the exposure to hedging. Crazy isn’t it. Today price is an absolute joke when throwing off 100M a month fcf
Considering the price of oil, this was a terrible trading update, imagine where we would be if oil prices had stayed around $50
My bad, I just saw this in the RNS
if any one is interested in today's talking points, here is a rundown of what was voted on:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HARBOUR-ENERGY-PLC-120993565/news/Harbour-Energy-nbsp-Result-of-the-AGM-35682994/