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Big offload, up we go again...
Thought you sold at £3.50 karmakanix? ;-) couldn’t lie straight in bed.
I think the reverse might happen where there'll be even more incentives to invest in oil and gas in the EU/UK:
- without cheap gas, vital raw materials e.g. steel will not be available for European renewable companies and they will have to resort to imports which constrains their output
- due to high inflation and a unionised workforce, European renewable companies will have to pay higher wages, killing any hopes of a profit margin and they will have to continue operating at a loss
- as these companies are heavily in debt and are dependent on governmental/corporate loans which are linked to inflation, higher interests will have to be paid and many will have to start obtaining even more loans or renegotiate for more
Now that EU has labelled gas as green, this is where renewable investments need to go :)
Not if Liz Truss gets in
For transparency my limit sell has just been triggered at 380 after a decent run as this is still a trader for me,
I realise that many on here want the wt reversed so they can sell and get back some of their losses here which is obvious from the shameless 24/7 ramping .
No one knows yet but my guess is that the o and g companies will be taxedeven more.
Hi LL, agree the the PE is stupidly low, can't understand it. Good Luck, fingers crossed Liz scraps WT and all invest in energy security. Roll on H1.
Hi BH
my assumptions are guestimates.....possibly the best approach would be to multiply $1.5bil x 4 and that's it.
Consider that the first quarter $1.5bil rev. is based on 215bbopde production which is very much at the top of full 2022 range (no matter if Tolmount or any other field has come in production) has it must have been factored in already in 2022 production forecast.
So really the big factor here is not really production (lets say top of guidance been 210k) but price of oil and gas. with almost 5 month still left I feel any of our guesstimates can easily be discarded possibly for a better forecast......and on this is likely the comes H1 there may be more positive updates coming.
Also BH you mentioned of:
EBITDA north of $3bn. FCF should be plus $2bn before tax. GLA====
But pl note that on May update it stated that:
At $100/bbl and 200p/therm average prices for 2022, Harbour continues to expect to generate between $1.5 and $1.7 billion of free cash flow (after tax and the $200 million dividend payment) with the potential to be net debt free in 2023.
====
So already forecasting $1.7/1.9 billions including dividends after tax excluding TW, which imv will have minimal impact..
All in all imv this talk about revenue is quite futile......Is probably safer to say though that given prices have improved from Q1 update, at lees comes end of the year hbr will easily make $2billion fcf , which normally is always considered to be after taxes, and also a better interpretation of net profit.
Hence we are talking about a tiny PE 2, with easily potential to double the sp by end of the year.
Its also looking likely the windfall tax could get cancelled in the future or seriously amended. That should be a 40% increase in the HBR sp right there..
Not everyone is a fan of buybacks but they make sense at this level. Maxing out the $200m should be 45m share which is 5% of share capital. Not to be sniffed at. I for one would welcome another $200m with a cap of say £4.50 on share price.
They aren’t going to complete by 25th August as recently been buying back much less than 1 million a day and would need to purchase over 1 million a day if $60 million left.
Harbour has purchased 34,213,649 ordinary shares for cancellation for this buyback programme. Circa $140 Million
I’ve just been through the RNS and my rough guesstimate is that we are only just over half way through the $200m share buyback program. So still a long way to go yet……
LL - where do you get $5.7bn sales for 2022 - Quote Financial review - TU Q1 May 22
Estimated revenue for the first quarter was c.$1.5 billion. Average realised oil prices pre- and post-hedging were $103/bbl and $84/bbl respectively. Average realised gas prices pre- and post-hedging were $160/boe and $66/boe respectively.
So 4 Qtrs x $1.5bn = $6bn - you say $5.7bn? , you are ignoring Tolmount probably generating $70-80m per month from May thats +$560m & Nat Gas unhedged - you expect sales to FALL, throughout the year??! Est should be $7.2-7.4bn allowing for Scheduled maintenance , EBITDA north of $3bn. FCF should be plus $2bn before tax. GLA
my revenue for 2022 is $5.7 billions
taking in to account Oil at ~$100 and gas at current 400p, including hedges.
Anyhow what a fantastic day...it was about time that the market recognise HBR potential.
Oil is bouncing off a descending trend resistance channel, will be interesting if we break that....for a potential move above $100. It would do wonder for HBR sp.....
I am quite confident soon hbr sp will be leaving 400p as support for the 500eds....
I am back on profit hurrraaaaaa.
Eagerly awaiting H1
Buy backs today were curtailed by the surging sp . Nine trading days to go. BP surging in New York. I am topping up again tomorrow. No fear. Has to be done. And then long long hold. Who is selling at this crazy low price? Not me.
My forecast below which was pushing the boat out is beginning to look conservative! I am finding it hard to calculate 1st half with any precision. Brent in second quarter was $114. But actual production of gas and oil not certain.
Another exciting one mentioned earlier who have just started Gas production is IOG.
Bays that's great, I was only working on a conservative 200 kboepd.
Infor, I make H1 22 Revenue about $3.5bn, up from $1.5bn in H1 21, an increase of +130%, remember sales Q1 22 were $1.5bn without Tolmount and lower O&G prices. Full year should be between $7.2-7.4bn all things being equal - that's about 5.5x our debt - long way from PMO days when sales never got equal to the debt level, only a fraction of it. . We'll soon find out, unhedged Gas income in now mental. GLA
18.8 mmboe hedged in 2022 of oil at $61.15. Say oil production is 100 kboepd, this equates to 36.5 mmboe which is 1/2 of the oil is hedged.
Meaning 18,000,000 x say $100 x 0.82 = £1.48bn unhedged
and 18,000,000 x $61.15 x 0.82 = £0.9bn hedged
Total revenue oil and gas for 2022 could be £4.83bn or increase of 33%!
Only 25.37 mmboe hedged in 2022 hedged at 50.75p. If gas production is half of 200 kboepd equivalent, this equates to 36500 kboe = 36.5 mmboe. So 2/3rds of the gas is hedged.
Meaning 58 x 12,000,000 x say 250p = £1.74bn unhedged during 2022
and. 58 x 24,000,000 x 50.75p = £.71bn hedged during 2022
This is just the gas.
Forecasting competition announced.
Debt 30th June $1bn
Forecast Free cash flow 2022 $2bn
Dividend $300 M per annum. $150 M second half.
Share buybacks $200 M extra by year end.
At least one mega announcement.
Share price at close on 25th August £451p
Then we should just keep buying ahead of the results. They did wonders last time.......
But onedb how much is unhedged? Therein lies the tragedy of nervous nelly hedging.
412 now ! Insane ! Like it means zip to HBR ! But resistance will fall here. Our day is coming