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Thanks. I probably need to think about it. I still don't really see why there are not hedge funds and city traders with mega computers who can feed the results into a model in 30 minutes, and are then prepared to buy up to a certain price, so that it is all settled in one day. But if you are saying this is not the case and it takes days or weeks for brokers and professionals to come to a conclusion, then I accept your explanation. Anyhow I gather some presentation tomorrow so interesting to see if that changes things. Of course it is not purely numbers it is confidence in management and so forth. But I would have thought a good computer model could factorise that in. Anyhow if AI hits, presumably things are gonna change
5% - another factor in price movements is that more and lore people use technical analysis to trade (including professional investors). Personally analysing charts for me can only tell you where you've come from, but as more and more people use it, there can be a self prophesying success to it. anyway the point I'm tying to make is if people invest in momentum, the chart has got to start going up before these investors invest. So people like me read the results, and invest on my interpretation of them. If the results are good folk like me hop in, the share price starts to go up, some people take a profit, the price pauses, brokers & journalists have their say, if positive, people take note and invest and the share price goes up, then the technical traders see a trend and hop in too.
That's all very simplistic, but hopefully it explains why it can take days or even weeks for the share price to react to positive news.
Thanks about brokers. Yes I can't see anybody buying simply because a broker says 'buy'. It needs an explanation according to his model of what the price should be.
Tradeable - i thought about it - I think it means there is a mean or avergae price somebody has calculated. The stock is small and seldom traded, so the price paid is often way out from the mean or average. So it is possible for somebody to buy when it is inexplicably and meaninglessly low, and vice versa. The theory, anyway.
I suppose I do similar but with ETFs. For example, Japanese bonds are at a multi year low, for no reason except faffing around by the central bank. It seems obvious they will rise over time ( in my view ) . But it is not some massively intelligent analysis of what a japanerse bond is worth, it is essentially a form of chartism.
No, Lord, I don't hold Ramsdens, and have never looked that closely at them. They had been on Business Live on Sky News a few weeks ago and were very bullish there. .
5% - I've never found a good sauce for all broker recommendations on a share. Yahoo gives a summary of how many brokers say, Buy, positive, neutral, negative, sell. Sharecast gives some too. But I can't really help there. I'm sure there is one.
Somebody said this is eminently tradeable. I think reference charts. Well the charts were terrible, as he agreed. Then 14 percent rise in 2 days. I do not really know whether his idea of tradeable was purely on charts or more complex. If he cares to explain what he means by tradeable I would be interested
Anyhow another 4 percent this morning so infers takes time for reaction. That infers a retail investor has an opportunity on day 1. But not convinced a retail investor can analyse a p and l and balance sheet and understand it in one day. In short, I think there is no trading opportunity. Only the long term view counts
Hardboy : You say professionals 'give their verdict'. So is there a easy source on the internet of all broker's recommendations ? You seem to be suggesting these are visible after a few days. Where ? Or do you just mean that following the trades you can see bigger trades that denote they are buying ? Is it possible to detect WHO is buying ? In terms of institutions. I realise us retail investors can not be identified.
Thanks Hardboy
I take your point about dividends. However there’ll be some institutional & many private investors (myself included) who bought in partly for the decent yield. And whilst 13% growth isn’t to be sneezed at, it’s out of step with the annual increase in most of H&T’s other business metrics, notably EPS.
So not quite my definition of a progressive dividend policy - and a dangerous area to meddle with too much if you value shareholder loyalty.
Traditionally they’ve been pretty successful at putting capital to good use and I welcome the news of modest store increases & a significant estate refurb programme. The IT upgrades make eminent sense in theory (& so far so good), providing they deliver in practice without cost overruns.
I’m more sceptical about their acquisition of Maxcroft (or at least the price paid), even though diversification into short term small business lending makes sense. Time will tell I guess.
Out of interest, do you (or any other posters) also hold Ramsdens? They issued a fairly bullish update on 11 March, leading to a c. 10% up-rate. But it too remains around 15% below its recent share price peak.
Lord, good post, good analysis. I don't mind a small increase in dividend. They are investing heavily in their stores and pledge book, which should lead to bigger profits in the future. (I have argued, occasionally, that any company with debts should not pay dividends. Lending money to pay dividends is stupid, but of course it is not that simple.)
The main uncertainty is how effective this increased level of investment will be in increasing margins and profits. They are taking on more debt than they have traditionally held, so it had better be worth it.
5% - if you are seriously asking why on good news a share price does not zoom up and stay there, rather than inching up gradually. There are all sorts of reasons. The share price goes up when more people want to buy at the price than sell. Once a share price goes up there are some people who will sell to make a quick profit, bringing the price down. Professional analysts have a look at the announcement and give their verdict, That come a day or more later. Some punters wait for brokers' to say buy before they buy. Professional investors take longer over decisions.
And of course Keynes said, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Don't remind me
I'm mindin' my own damn business
Don't try to find me
I'm better left alone than in this
It doesn't surprise me
Do you really think that I could care
If you really don't like me?
Find somebody else
It could be anyone else out there
Don't fret
I don't ever wanna see you
And I never wanna miss you again
One thing
When you're angry, you're a jerk
And then you treat me like I'm worth nothin'
Don't fret
5percent - filtered.
Others might do the same after running through your posts on H&T. To me, they smack of someone with a clear agenda.
Increase increased from 5% to 10% in 4 hours. Suggests to me that it takes time, a few hours, for the news to be assessed.
Try not to be a rude boy
You need to move on and lose your money with the rainbow chasers! you'll win occasionally and you'll enjoy the thrills but don't think this one's for you.
Hardboy - a sense of relief seems to be the general market reaction to today's Prelimary Results.
It was certainly mine, as there were no new nasties I could see.
My main takeaways:
POSITIVES
* Recently increased loan interest rates should boost FY pawnbroking margin
* Retail prices have now been increased & margins are expected to improve in 2024
* Retail held up well through January & February (after a sticky December)
* Retail mix to shift slightly, from new (lower margin) to pre-owned (higher margin) jewellery, as the pledge book grows
* Stores acquired/opened in the last 3 -4 years all trading at/above original forecast level
* ROE up 25% YOY & targeted to increase a further 25% or so in the medium term (from 12.4% to mid teens %)
* Store numbers likely to grow 4%-5% annually
NEGATIVES
* Employee costs will continue to rise above the headline inflation rate in 2024
* Relatively modest dividend growth for 2023 of +13%, from 15p to 17p
* Continued roll out of IT upgrades. Whilst they've integrated smoothly so far, these sort of projects have a nasty habit of imploding &/or generating significant cost overruns
Because the markets are dysfunctional. HAT isn't a meme stock so gets ignored, leaving the profiting to larger buyers who wait for the froth to dissipate.
whrewas stupid shares like HE1 bounce up and down and attracts day traders.
only have to look at SYNT, whose results were craap and they're up 25%.
HAT just isn't a knee jerk share... but it'll rise, slowly. you can already see day traders jumped in and then jumped out again because it didn't do 25% in the first 5 minutes!
After all , the increase today of 4 - 6 percent is not exactly thrilling. It infers the news does not change such a lot.
Look, it is a serious question. And I expect a serious answer, not a load of xxxx. ( not sure i will get it ) I have noticed that a 'good' share will increase on a steady gradient, not in steps ( up or down ) when news is released. So there must be some type of 'delayed reaction', it is not instant. This could be due to the big boys trying to buy in, but discreetly in small packets, as they slowly realise what it all means. Maybe it is that the computers in the city take time to decide what the results mean.
I can understand it might take one day for the results to be analysed, but not why the share should , as the guy below infers' soar past 400' over a few months. Why not today ? Nothing will have changed and there will be no news. Does it just take time for the pension funds etc to rebalance their books to favour , say, this share ?
Friday, 15 March, 12:00pm
Chris Gillespie, CEO & Diane Giddy, CFO will present results for the FY23 followed by Q&A.
Register here: https://bit.ly/HAT_FY23_results_webinar
Lets' hope all the positive vibes released here by the good news are not just emotions. If the share price is supposed to 'sail past 400' as somebody puts it, why did it not do that this morning ? Maybe somebody can explain. I am going back to pickpocketing, much easier. Just put up a sign at a railway station ' beware of pickpockets'. Apologies to those with zero ( negative actually ) sense of humour.
Trading is good...very good.....profits on the rise....dividends increased....A totally underpriced share that deserves a big rerate.....550p is my target for the year......
Not the most busy share but still liquid to buy and sell.
share got trashed by market saying their recent acquisition was overpriced but their profits show they know what they're doing.
will be surprised if it doesn't sail past 400 and, over time, properly rerateable. considering the state of the country won't be surprised o see this grow!