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Steph, I do not believe we are on the cusp of WW3. The Iran / Middle East could escalate and have additional backing from Russia. China, the other major ally to Iran is unlikely to get involved but it could use the situation as camoflage for its claim over Taiwan.
Perhaps, if Russia is successful in Ukraine, it might embolden Putin to NATO states in the Baltics, which, if Trump were returned to power would present some crisis.
These conflicts seem to have the stamp of Authoritarianism vs Democracy. But, it the call went out, I would be ready to play whatever role is needed that I can usefully do for the persuit of peace.
I have a concern about going private but mainly about lack of freedom. There are some heavy hitters amongst the iis so I don't think they will allow themselves to be shafted and will make the call, not management. I've had a buy in at 2.15 for a while, eventually hit, but it could easily go lower.
I worry about grow being taken private. they have been private before and if being retail does not help fundraising whats the point?
are we all investing at the cusp of ww3?
i worry the wars could spiral out of control. netanyahu has a vested interest in dragging us all in to their mess and biden in particular just a mug or puppet in the process. if bidens red lines came with real consequences we would not be where we ate but talk is cheap.
Meant to say I think the chance of delisting has increased because a number of AIM companies have done so recently and I think this will feed into FTSE small cap stocks.
I think this will delist at some point. There is no way the UK market is going to be able to discover the value here.
For this reason I am not going to buy more but I will hold what I have.
In a Buffett sense of not buying something unless you are happy to hold it even if the exchange shuts down for a few years.
MV have a ton of employee and management options due to vest in July and the price would have to go up by about 5 for them to be viable.
I guess if they go private they can distribute stock to staff without needing to suffer further SP beating.
Market gains, and in particular tech led ones in America have had a spectacular 6 months that began in October and lasted right up to the end of March. All that is happening IMO is a correction which, coupled with the FED dismissing prospects of an early interest rate cut, geo-political problems in Middle East and the callous behaviour of the Republican Party in USA in the procrastination of support for Ukraine has seen a sharp drop as investors bank profits.
This is, although painful in the short term, to be welcomed (again, my opinion) because as markets hit new highs, so it iw worrysome and encouraging in equal measure. Growth was confined to a few companies but is now beginning to broaden and, in time will extend to the smaller and smallest companies.
'fraid it is a situation where keeping a cool head is needed, doing nothing and sweating things out, sensible and for those fortunate to have spare funds on the side being able to cherry pick new investments or strengthen existing holdings if appropriate.
In times such as this, I compare an acorn with an oak tree and remind myself that the acorn has greater potential than a mature tree. For myself, from being up 12% at the end of march, I am up just 3% today and although currently sitting on 1.5% cash not sure that the turbulence is over quite yet.
Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q1_2024_European_Venture_Report.pdf
Https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/16/apple-lawsuit-behind-it-chip-startup-rivos-plots-its-next-moves/
Though competitive sector but money can be raised as lot’s of potential as well.
They have multiple revenue streams. Wise is not a great comparator as Revolut do a lot more than currency exchange.
They position themselves as a finance super app. Banking services in the EU, crypto and stock trading, premium accounts with things like insurance and concierge services, business accounting tools, POS card readers for companies like Aer Lingus, remittance payments between the US and Latin America.
It might be worthwhile to get a better understanding of the business before suggesting that they are comparable to a money transfer business.
It's more like a mix of Wise, Monzo, Starling, Sum-up and WeChat.
Apologies I went back and checked. The UK's accounts are indeed the 743M number but they have filed another consolidated set called Revolut Group with the £923 number with loss before tax of £25M. In 2022 they grew Rev 45%. Could they go to 100% in 2023. Probably but that would mostly be explained by the increased earnings on cash held (like Wise) but that will be short lived as they will be under pressure to return more interest to customers. Wise have said they want to be able to return 80% of interest earned but for now they need to invest more to do that. The point is for a Group making nothing in 2022 after operating costs what is the right valuation, £4bn, 8bn, £15bn, £20bn. If most of it comes from interest on cash balances thats not high quality. thats why Wise management play this way down on theirresults calls and told the market this is a short term benefit which is allowing them to invest more to bring costs down. Rates going from 0 to 5% had a big impact on the Wise numbers but they know it doesnt look good to keep most of the interest earned, its not their cash.
Revolut's Revenue in 2022 was £743,867,000. If you know what you are doing they are easy to find. There is no debate on that ACTUAL historic number. You need to stop getting your information from the internet and go to source documents and if you dont know how to do that, stay out of the markets.
"Markets can be irrational for limited periods of time..". Dead right, and London in particular has been more irrational than most for the last few years. Hopefully the tide will turn soon but I would not hold my breath. There is far too much uncertainty with respect to current and potential future conflicts, and pending elections in many countries.
Which portfolio companies are struggling? Even graphcore will probably hold it’s value for us.
SO why the 2/3rds discount to NAV/share? For my money an anomaly that will correct itself in due course. Markets can be irrational for limited periods of time -especially for specific shares such as ours with subjective hidden valuations to worry punters.
Yeah for me it's one of the brightest prospects.
Sounds like ICEYE will contribute to a positive NAV/share news for us in results due within 2 weeks. ICEYE was the second largest NAV upgrade on half yearly results and is currently worth 40m on our books.
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-says-a-wall-street-revival-is-finally-here-080059304.html
Revolut revenue was £923m in 22.
They forecast £1.7bn for 23.
https://www.revolut.com/news/revolut_invests_in_future_growth_as_revenue_tops_1bn_in_2022_expects_to_hit_2bn_in_2023/
Or maybe another way to look at it is; is Revolut worth twice Wise plc. In 2022, last accounts aqvailable for Revolut, Wise Rev was £560M (2022) and Revolut £743, thats 1.32x higher. Based on Wise's £8.5bn valuation that suggests £11.2bn. or 25% less than the £15bn. Plus Wise is public so theoretically should have a further liquidity premium. Will be interesting to see Revolu's growth when 2023 published.
Oakblokes research suggests"For example GROW values its 0.35% holding in Revolut at £54.5m. This means Revolut is worth £15.4bn ($19.5bn)."So whilst the Schroders valuation uplifts is not as meaningful as where they were valuing, it looks like a 30% uplift on where Molten currently hold..which would be positive.
All the portfolio shares we know something about have held their value or increased it since September 2023. Even Graphcore , the most vulnerable of the lot, will credibly be valued at least what we have it on the books for due to negotiations on a sale.
The 55m cash injection in second half at about 1/3rd nav means we need over 35m net uplift in NAV to break even against half yearly results. If we are to achieve a slight increase in NAV/share over the year we will need net nav increases of over 100m as we had a 72m loss in first half.
I’ve given up on guessing valuations. They seem so subjective and only really accurate in the long run when late rounds and IPO’s review true values with real money.
I do think GROW have been conservative on valuations and they are more or less what we would get if the portfolio was liquidated in current market conditions in an orderly (not a fire sale so at least 12 months to wind down positions) sale. NO justification for extreme discount we have now unless further NAV/share losses iin the books and I don’t think so.
I’ll confidently predict no new losses (taking into account the dilution) and some NAV/share increase (taking into account dilution). How much of a net increase is uncertain. Could be circa 100m using credible comparables and our organic sales growth within portfolio helping reduce multiples of sales needed for current valuations.
Seed funds we own have held values nicely. We were even able to cash out a bit of seed so those valuations real money.
The main issue was them getting funded in a round led by SoftBank at an elevated valuation. I think MV actually dumped some stock at the time.
So with the VC blowout their assumed market cap was downgraded significantly but now they are getting rerated.
They say they have about 40mn customers now.
MV bought a fund a few weeks back at a big discount that had Revolut as a holding.
Was there not a cyber attack in September 2022 year on Revolut? Not sure what effect it has had (if any) on the underlying valuation, but I believe it cost the company about £20m to sort out.
Thannks
Revolut was on our books for 95m year end 2022 and by 2023 results and half yearly results 2024 down to 55m. Even at 55m big success story as we only put in 7m at seed stage.
Note 28 of annual rerpot 2022 say there was a weighted average of 25% discount to last rounds and I imagine the 5m REvolut was on our books for was discounted around that. The range was 15% to 89% so no last round was used too calculate our fair value.
SO any valuation of Revolut near 33bn means we are back to closer to 95m rather than 55m. As yo usay room for NAV/share contribution to growth.