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Thin volume, this has been controlled by the bots for some time, so not too concerned just adding in the drops, although I expect the accounts will not look too happy with any Graphcore write down.
I suppose forward partner shareholders with first chance to cash out perhaps for a long time.
even if we have big buyers in the background they might hang back and let the do fall so they create jitters and thus a better price.
anyhow frustrating but fundamentals and time on our side. just cant say when sustainable sp lift starts
The shareholders of Forward I mean
The Forward Partners got their Molten shares available to trade so may be selling?
Why the huge 7% fall today?
And I wish the market had some of your confidence Steph
You keep saying that you expect it to reach new highs soon at over £11
Can I have a pint of whatever you are on?
At this rate of decline I will be quite happy with it reaching £3
“The deal values Perkbox modestly above its Group holding value”
Any and all confirmations that our NAV calculations are accurate for the market should be most helpful. NO justification for a 2/3rds discount.
I’ve always posted that a 1/3rd discount to NAV/share (or about 5 quid) maybe sensible in this jittery market.
Even that “modest” discount should melt away quickly once the market shows solid signs of stabilization and the robust organic maturing of the portfolio can finally result in NAV/share upgrades. Once that process starts might be pretty quick.
Bought half back just now after selling at 269. Looks like the stars are slowly aligning for this one.
Look forward to Investor Presentation on Forward Partners later today
RNS today. Gently encouraging I’d say. A non-core holding but sold at a small premium to NAV in the books. And not at a 66% discount…
Thanks for the personal history. 1/6 not bad in these things.
I think we have been oversold and at some point it will correct itself -perhaps suddenly. Just needs a few sales or funding rounds of a representative sample of core portfolio and confidence will return in the NAV/share calculations. I keep checking for Graphcore news on sale.
Mention is todays Times. Seems that GROW has a 20% stake. Might be behind paywall
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/perkbox-and-vivup-sales-reap-millions-for-founders-htz2zw7xd
My drivel probably holds little value, but, steph, there is often a point when fortunes are reversed. GROW is not like a penny mining stock nor a Phase 1 pharmaceutical developer. Grow, as we know invests in businesses that are in very early stage. Yes, they have an idea, a plan, probably sales and an enthusiastic workforce. They have al the potential for rapid growth or a cash haemorrhage only to limp onwards.
We as investors HAVE to trust the managers that decide whether to invest in the myriad of opportunities that are presented. After all, we probably all know a Kevin or a Paul that has aptitude for something and just lacks the cash to take on a new Molly to run the books, Tim to help on the floor or Amy to bill the customers and take payments - we none of us begrudge lending anything from £50 to £500 to help them buy the piece of equipment or the missing link to expand.
We are not dealing with these micro enterprises - this is the stage where not only have they exhausted parents, relatives, friends etc, but now they need the start of the big bucks. The costs to bridge the gap between a tiny business of 3-5 persons to a business that supports 20-50 people. It is the organic growth where insufficient cashflow and capitalisation will kill the entrepreneur that does not have deep pockets.
I know what the entrepreneur goes through - in the past I failed 5 times for 2 different reasons (1 was through embezzlement and 4 through lack of cash) but on the 6th, success resulted and business is in its 15th year of trading. I've not quite reached the salary of a Country let alone a City mouse, but a pretty good one for a Peasant one. Had I known about GROW or that ilk 50 or so years ago, I would certainly have made approach.
Sentiment changes. The valuation for GROW assumes most of the holdings are worthless. This cannot be correct and patience is needed.
We seem to fall back every time we go up a bit above 2.50 Some seller I suppose adjusting portfolio.
Year end in 2 weeks and preliminary year end results in about 6 weeks.
Will make a massive difference to our SP if our NAV/share stops falling. Due to the diluting effect of the 50m money injection at 2.75 and not at 7.73 (nav/share) we need an extra 32 million net “profit” to have a flat Nav/share result. Doable but uncertain. An announcement of a Graphcore sale before year end would probably be enough.
Wish we had more formal price discovery funding rounds completed on core portfolio but when we do SP will jump as it is so far below NAV/share due to market skepticism NAV/share is credible. For my money i’m with grow management on this.
Barclays paid out on 12th, lifting the charge on the assets would have been a prerequisite for the deal.
The Sky article suggests that of the £130m the founders are sharing £70m, angel investors £30m leaving potentially another £30m for Molten.
Tech Crunch article on the 2019 funding round only mentions angel investors and Draper (Molten).
Think they had a Barclays loan to pay off but could be a tidy sum.
From Molten's annual report in 2021 they had invested £14m with no further funding rounds.
The additional link seems to imply that GROW had invested around $30m. Anyway, brilliant spot and thank you for bringing it to our attention.
To be clear the value of £18-20m was what Molten valued their holding at- not the actual whole company valuation
Well spotted. Up until 2021 Perkbox was one of the core portfolio companies with a value of £18-20m and Draper Esprit (Molten) led the last round in 2019.
Companies house has shown them breaking even on revenue of about £30m the last couple of years
Sounds like margins are tight in the industry so 4x revenue valuation not bad.
Nice one to exit as they have been invested there for about 10 years.
Some info here with MV investment numbers:
https://tracxn.com/d/companies/perkbox/__oY0_doyjBx37KAvP1e0BbAdGK7IvDGT3HfcbgtkeJpM/funding-and-investors
Excellent news from Sky that Perkbox has been bought by a US private equity firm, Great Hill Partners, for about £130m. Perkbox is still listed on MV's website and a 2017 article said that their investment was $12m but I haven't managed to find more recent valuations in a quick search. Anyone else?
Let's hope this is the first of many sales and that the realisation for MV is registered in March to help the bottom line for this financial year.
https://news.sky.com/story/perkbox-founders-to-celebrate-35m-windfalls-from-great-hill-deal-13094069
I’ve been toppling up a bit and will of course put 20,000 pounds into my ISA April 6th. No brainer for an ISA and 5 to 10 year perspective.
Stars aligning for a big SP push up but as always who knows when. I note all my small holdings in UK trust equivalents are also below 2020 buy in points (pre covid boost) so sector (and not just us) still badly hit.
I had always thought that tech market recovery would occur in parallel with our sector’s recovery but seems to be a lag. Also tech market boom limited to the 4 biggest firms. Smaller listed tech players not at record highs.
Anyhow I am a great believer of “trickle down” (not the Reaganite variety). Solidity in seed funds plus top end booming at record high means our pipeline in between will recover it’s mojo and at least achieve valuations and SP at 2019 levels plus organic growth of portfolio -which has been substantial in the 2019 to 2024 period.
None I can see? I just repeatedly top up my £5k holding when it goes down to £4.5k and sell when it’s £5.5k. Takes all the worry out of it TBH ! Will buy shortly.
Any particular reason(s) sp down so much today?
Consultation on the ISA has started. This is quite a good run down for the professional pick
https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/how-the-world-s-best-fund-managers-would-invest-a-british-isa/a2437727
So I presume this means a UK investor will be able to invest say up to £5000 annually in MV shares - and put this into the new British ISA...
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/06/british-isa-will-be-created-to-encourage-investment-in-uk-firms-hunt-confirms