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For my money I think the NAV/share is accurate and the market for late round fundraising and IPO’s will in due course confirm. Ambiguity and thus suspicion on valuations without market price discovery is overdone.
As soon as a representative sample of our core portfolio achieves fund raising at NAV’s at or above what they are on the MV books for we will soar fast. All fundraising thus far has been at or above our NAV assumed. There is no evidence of the discount the SP assumes is needed.
Anyhow big gains for the patient investor here. 4x over a 2 year horizon quite doable.
Sangijuelas, I do accept that there are many Investment Trusts (IT) that hold listed equities, however, III, PEY and AUGM, which are among the IT which I hold are principally comprised unlisted companies though at different stage of life. If we accept that investing in seed and fledgling companies need very different resource from those which are at the stage to either be spun off as a quoted company or divest to the needs appropriate to the development of that business.
Some businesses require cash, others need introductions to build sales and some need skilled people for compliance.
As far as I am concerned, my cash investment in GROW would, if the IT were wound up tomorrow probably be completely worthless if bean counters from an insolvency outfit were engaged. On the other hand, GROW has a stake in plenty of companies and perhaps a few will be a runaway success in time. It is a risk that I am prepared to take. As a general rule, I tend to comment publicly where I am worried or find the quality of discussion does not merit engagement. (AFC, EZJ, BEG for instance).
There is still 100% for the share price to fall. My hunch is that the NAV is overstated as far as the broad investing community is concerned. That the managers have dipped into their pockets to buy shares, is incidental.
All similar vehicles are on massive discounts to the valuations of unlisted / listed / cash holdings.
IP group has cash at half its value, listed assets and listed assets probably then at 25%, ARIX until recently had the unlisted elements as a free ride, shellalion was until recently on a 60% plus discount.
Need the ipo market to improve and see assets floated at the values they are in the books. Also biotech needs to rerate.
Alas, most investment trusts hold listed equities so price discovery of the assets is a constant.
Here the valuations making up the NAV are based on funding rounds and comparisons with similar companies that are listed. So a much higher degree of subjectivity involved.
The fact that two of the MV Directors recently bought shares should give us some confidence in the company - or at least I hope so!
It is always disheartening when the value of an investment falls, more so when there is a chasm between the value of the underlying assets and the market capital of the holding company. It is not unusual for a small discount or premium to apply from time to time from MOST investment trusts, and, for the most part such variation tends to be in the region of 5% premium and 12%-15% discount.
Anything outside these figures generally merits investigation. More often than not, the gap closes to be in the range noted above. If the underlying valuation is wrong, it will distort the numbers. If the managers have a poor track record, then that will put pressure on the discount. Investment trust managers can (and often do) buy shares in the market and hold them in treasury to take advantage of unusual gaps and sell them at a later date when the price benefits the company.
My hunch is that there is insufficient cash to allow the trust to buy shares in the market and take advantage of the discount and that there is an institutional holder that is dumping their holding. I'm not convinced that the valuation is correct. The managers might have have stretched their rope a little too much and be close to breaking point. If the valuations are broadly correct and an institutional holder is really upset, it is possible that the Trust could be wound up to put an end to the miserable share price performance. Panic does not help in a decision making process but speculation can be beneficial.
Of course, this is not a holding for widows and orphans. Just the musings of an old duffer, so take with a scoop of salt.
And me - I've bought some more too! I cannot understand the SP as long as we're comfortable that the NAV is reasonably well supported. Presumably some of the Forward Ventures lot might be "cashing out"? Private Equity is a long term play but has the best long term returns - it just might be the last fund I sell in my portfolio!
Well I did go ahead and bought a few more MV shares...
I am really saddened to see MV sp go so low!
Am wondering now whether to put a modest amount of recent share profits (from SMCI and another US share) into more MV...
Uber posts first operating profit as public company
Ride-hire company Uber has reported its first full-year of operating profits since it floated on the stock market five years ago.
Uber has reported it made income from operations of $1.11bn in 2023, up from a loss of $1.832bn in 2022, beating expectations.
Revenues grew 17% last year, lifted by a 24% jump in trips in Uber vehicles.
“2023 was an inflection point for Uber, proving that we can continue to generate strong, profitable growth at scale,” said Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO, adding:
100-bagger! Wow!
I have done well recently with SMCI (Super Micro Computer) - sister/brother company to Nvidia; SMCI sp has increased 12-fold over a year. I know people who were lucky and savvy enough to hold it all that time!
However, I started buying in the mid 200s - it is now in the late 600s - though it hasn't been plain sailing by any means. For about eight months I found the share trading sideways (with occasional big rises, then huge dips). I held on throughout - occasionally panic-selling some, then rebuying pretty swiftly! - believing that sp would eventually break out - which it did this month on both excellent pre-announced Earnings and then a superb ER.
This helps make up for a lot of share losses incurred in 2021 - and now I am finally in respectable profit. I have reduced my stake here somewhat but am hoping to hold fairly long-term.
Yes we have done nothing but drop since we joined the FTSE 25o and renamed ourselves.
Over 2.5 years now since drop started and 1.5 years since this bottom (more or less) reached. So if a U shaped recovery it’s taking it’s time to get going on the recovery leg.
Nothing fundamental has happened to portfolio itself. Average of core portfolio growing sharply in sales year by year and sales are the key metric of value for unlisted tech. No core holding gone bust -which in modest numbers is normal enough.
The end of the pipeline (listed profitable tech) in rude health and at record highs. At some point money will pivot towards the better value to be had earlier in the pipeline of tech companies. When precisely unknowable but I suspect soon. Hold.
I suppose I should have anticipated the likely share price performance of MV. The name Molten Ventures suggests that the investments are in meltdown, does it not?
I've had a few over the years (mostly oilies) where I've held through big rises only to see them drop way back again, some even going bust. Nowadays I tend to sell half if they double for a free carry.
I'm in Helium One which should have been a multi-bagger but I got in when it was much higher and had pretty much written it off. It's a 10 bagger in 2 weeks for those that got it right, don't see too many like that.
I seem to do well with companies beginning with Y.
Yu Group & Yougov are among my best performers.
As a strategy it would be really limiting, Yellow Cake and Young & Co. would be my only other options.
I'm stuck for what to do about MV though, I'm of a mind to dump the lot at a big loss.
I've given it while to see if it recovers but I'm starting to think it might never happen.
Wish I knew. I’ve an idea that III which has been in wifes ISA for 20 years could be a 30 bagger. But over the last 50 years I can honestly state that I have bought just one share at the absolute bottom and lost count of the companies that promised much and returned little.
I have high hopes that AFC energy will do well, but until the company generates sales it remains speculative. Probably have 30 years of life remaining and 35 for wife. Portfolio remains structured for capital growth and risk at HIGH.
First 100-bagger! Please tell me your next one...
FWIW, I have sold a further tranche of my NVDA holding - think it is a little frothy at the moment. It was my first 100 bagger
SJ - look over the glassdoor for portfolio companies. Layoffs etc. I hope people took the opportunity to exit on the recent sp strength. Don't shoot the messenger but sub £2 possible.
Nothing would jump our sp more sharply ahead of year end preliminary results more than good news coming out of Graph-core. Such a wide range of outcomes from being worth zero (what the current market appears to assume) to being worth much more than we have it on our books for paving he way for a sharp increase in NAV/share on year end results (year end March 31 2024). As enclosed article indicates it is a big boys game determining the shape of the biggest tech companies for the future. Even a respectable small piece of that market through having created a better processing chip would be massive. Graphcore have sold successfully into top research universities but needs to move into the commercial markets and fast before core staff get poached in a sector that is paying pretty ordinary programing staff million dollar salaries.
https://news.futunn.com/en/post/37559609
Third, chip design startups established in the past five years, such as companies such as Tenstorrent, Cerebras, Graphcore, Etched, Extropic, and MATX, may use the new wave of AI to drive rapid growth in sales of their products.
However, The Information is not optimistic that so many AI chip companies will continue to exist in the future.
Also bought circa 9000 shares
nice to see directors buying.
Martin davis at 2.38
I note that a manager has purchased 10,000 shares. They tend to have their fingers on the pulse. I've put an order in too though for fewer shares.