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I should just add that I think - and hope - many if not most of these US tech stocks should recover soon - as their fundamentals are sound (and as long their next ERs - which are soon - will be good or at least OK).
Yesterday was a very negative day for US tech stocks.
I had only a relatively small holding left in SMCI - but the sp went down by over 23%.
I no longer hold any NVDA - but its sp went down 10%, and ARM Holdings (based here in the UK) shares went down almost 17%. A huge correction for these tech stocks.
Whether they will recover soon - or continue falling - I don't know. And the repercussions for the rest of the market - and shares such as MV - seem uncertain for now.
I wrote: "US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last two months."
That should read: "US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last four months."
I had great hopes for MV sp - but it has been disappointing. I am no longer invested here - but am thinking whether this might be a good time to invest again.
I am learning it's best not to be too wedded to any particular stock. I did well with investments in US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last two months (though there has been a significant recent pullback) - shares such as SMCI, Dell, Oracle, even (at one point) SOUN - and (only partly AI-related) HIMS, the latter a company with great potential IMO.
I now only have about a quarter invested in these stocks as I did about say four weeks ago (when they were at a peak) - but I stayed invested to this extent as I still want to have some 'skin in the game', so to speak. By not selling all say a month ago, I have probably lost about 15% or so of my total recent gains - but that feels fairly OK.
I did keep investing in MV - but sold each time as sp fell a lot - then investing proceeds in these US stocks, which, as it turned out, did do well. I'm wondering now whether to invest again in MV - the sp does seem cheap (or at least low) right now...
I wrote: "US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last two months."
That should read: "US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last four months."
I had great hopes for MV sp - but it has been disappointing. I am no longer invested here - but am thinking whether this might be a good time to invest again.
I am learning it's best not to be too wedded to any particular stock. I did well with investments in US tech stocks - whose sp rose a good deal in the last two months (though there has been a significant recent pullback) - shares such as SMCI, Dell, Oracle, even (at one point) SOUN - and (only partly AI-related) HIMS, the latter a company with great potential IMO.
I now only have about a quarter invested in these stocks as I did about say four weeks ago (when they were at a peak) - but I stayed invested to this extent as I still want to have some 'skin in the game', so to speak. By not selling all say a month ago, I have probably lost about 15% or so of my total recent gains - but that feels fairly OK.
I did keep investing in MV - but sold each time as sp fell a lot - then investing proceeds in these US stocks, which, as it turned out, did do well. I'm wondering now whether to invest again in MV - the sp does seem cheap (or at least low) right now...
Steph, I do not believe we are on the cusp of WW3. The Iran / Middle East could escalate and have additional backing from Russia. China, the other major ally to Iran is unlikely to get involved but it could use the situation as camoflage for its claim over Taiwan.
Perhaps, if Russia is successful in Ukraine, it might embolden Putin to NATO states in the Baltics, which, if Trump were returned to power would present some crisis.
These conflicts seem to have the stamp of Authoritarianism vs Democracy. But, it the call went out, I would be ready to play whatever role is needed that I can usefully do for the persuit of peace.
I have a concern about going private but mainly about lack of freedom. There are some heavy hitters amongst the iis so I don't think they will allow themselves to be shafted and will make the call, not management. I've had a buy in at 2.15 for a while, eventually hit, but it could easily go lower.
I worry about grow being taken private. they have been private before and if being retail does not help fundraising whats the point?
are we all investing at the cusp of ww3?
i worry the wars could spiral out of control. netanyahu has a vested interest in dragging us all in to their mess and biden in particular just a mug or puppet in the process. if bidens red lines came with real consequences we would not be where we ate but talk is cheap.
Meant to say I think the chance of delisting has increased because a number of AIM companies have done so recently and I think this will feed into FTSE small cap stocks.
I think this will delist at some point. There is no way the UK market is going to be able to discover the value here.
For this reason I am not going to buy more but I will hold what I have.
In a Buffett sense of not buying something unless you are happy to hold it even if the exchange shuts down for a few years.
MV have a ton of employee and management options due to vest in July and the price would have to go up by about 5 for them to be viable.
I guess if they go private they can distribute stock to staff without needing to suffer further SP beating.
Market gains, and in particular tech led ones in America have had a spectacular 6 months that began in October and lasted right up to the end of March. All that is happening IMO is a correction which, coupled with the FED dismissing prospects of an early interest rate cut, geo-political problems in Middle East and the callous behaviour of the Republican Party in USA in the procrastination of support for Ukraine has seen a sharp drop as investors bank profits.
This is, although painful in the short term, to be welcomed (again, my opinion) because as markets hit new highs, so it iw worrysome and encouraging in equal measure. Growth was confined to a few companies but is now beginning to broaden and, in time will extend to the smaller and smallest companies.
'fraid it is a situation where keeping a cool head is needed, doing nothing and sweating things out, sensible and for those fortunate to have spare funds on the side being able to cherry pick new investments or strengthen existing holdings if appropriate.
In times such as this, I compare an acorn with an oak tree and remind myself that the acorn has greater potential than a mature tree. For myself, from being up 12% at the end of march, I am up just 3% today and although currently sitting on 1.5% cash not sure that the turbulence is over quite yet.
Https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q1_2024_European_Venture_Report.pdf
Https://techcrunch.com/2024/04/16/apple-lawsuit-behind-it-chip-startup-rivos-plots-its-next-moves/
Though competitive sector but money can be raised as lot’s of potential as well.
They have multiple revenue streams. Wise is not a great comparator as Revolut do a lot more than currency exchange.
They position themselves as a finance super app. Banking services in the EU, crypto and stock trading, premium accounts with things like insurance and concierge services, business accounting tools, POS card readers for companies like Aer Lingus, remittance payments between the US and Latin America.
It might be worthwhile to get a better understanding of the business before suggesting that they are comparable to a money transfer business.
It's more like a mix of Wise, Monzo, Starling, Sum-up and WeChat.
Apologies I went back and checked. The UK's accounts are indeed the 743M number but they have filed another consolidated set called Revolut Group with the £923 number with loss before tax of £25M. In 2022 they grew Rev 45%. Could they go to 100% in 2023. Probably but that would mostly be explained by the increased earnings on cash held (like Wise) but that will be short lived as they will be under pressure to return more interest to customers. Wise have said they want to be able to return 80% of interest earned but for now they need to invest more to do that. The point is for a Group making nothing in 2022 after operating costs what is the right valuation, £4bn, 8bn, £15bn, £20bn. If most of it comes from interest on cash balances thats not high quality. thats why Wise management play this way down on theirresults calls and told the market this is a short term benefit which is allowing them to invest more to bring costs down. Rates going from 0 to 5% had a big impact on the Wise numbers but they know it doesnt look good to keep most of the interest earned, its not their cash.
Revolut's Revenue in 2022 was £743,867,000. If you know what you are doing they are easy to find. There is no debate on that ACTUAL historic number. You need to stop getting your information from the internet and go to source documents and if you dont know how to do that, stay out of the markets.
"Markets can be irrational for limited periods of time..". Dead right, and London in particular has been more irrational than most for the last few years. Hopefully the tide will turn soon but I would not hold my breath. There is far too much uncertainty with respect to current and potential future conflicts, and pending elections in many countries.
Which portfolio companies are struggling? Even graphcore will probably hold it’s value for us.
SO why the 2/3rds discount to NAV/share? For my money an anomaly that will correct itself in due course. Markets can be irrational for limited periods of time -especially for specific shares such as ours with subjective hidden valuations to worry punters.
Yeah for me it's one of the brightest prospects.
Sounds like ICEYE will contribute to a positive NAV/share news for us in results due within 2 weeks. ICEYE was the second largest NAV upgrade on half yearly results and is currently worth 40m on our books.
Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-says-a-wall-street-revival-is-finally-here-080059304.html
Revolut revenue was £923m in 22.
They forecast £1.7bn for 23.
https://www.revolut.com/news/revolut_invests_in_future_growth_as_revenue_tops_1bn_in_2022_expects_to_hit_2bn_in_2023/
Or maybe another way to look at it is; is Revolut worth twice Wise plc. In 2022, last accounts aqvailable for Revolut, Wise Rev was £560M (2022) and Revolut £743, thats 1.32x higher. Based on Wise's £8.5bn valuation that suggests £11.2bn. or 25% less than the £15bn. Plus Wise is public so theoretically should have a further liquidity premium. Will be interesting to see Revolu's growth when 2023 published.
Oakblokes research suggests"For example GROW values its 0.35% holding in Revolut at £54.5m. This means Revolut is worth £15.4bn ($19.5bn)."So whilst the Schroders valuation uplifts is not as meaningful as where they were valuing, it looks like a 30% uplift on where Molten currently hold..which would be positive.