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The ceo do not control the share price. Market sentiment do set the SP, and I reckon some thought that £25 was a tad too expensive. Fair enough, we are all on the look for the better deal. The SP however has come down some 25-30% lately, whilst Greggs most certainly also have taken drastic steps to increase revenue and profits. It’s a great business in my view, and sentiment will turn in favour of Greggs again. I’d just sit tight... As for the CEO’s trading, he could have all sorts of legitimate and genuine reasons. Personally I’d not read too much into that......
So here's one for you. The CEO sells 15,878 shares on the 01/08/19 @ £22.64 to make £359,477. Trading update 01/10/2019 shows a further drop in the SP which then allows the CEO to sell further shares 10/10/2019 97,655 @£18.04 to make £1.7M. So my questions is this why sell this amount just after the sale of a smaller amount in August? If the CEO was confident the SP would bounce back then why not hold on or sell a smaller amount of shares? He has just cost himself £449,213 by cashing in now. I have seen this before with another share and this to me looks like the SP will not get back to where it has for a very long time, or maybe not again. Prices have dropped just short of 30% in the past 2 months with 2 very positive sets of results. Sorry but if he is out like this then there is a reason.
I bet he’s sick, if he had waited a week he’d have had about £60k extra. !
Disappointed at share price after the results, strange that the first early morning response was a 50p rise, but confident still here with these.
I’m heavily in here so won’t be investing more but very very very tempted to. Good luck pie eaters and those salad eaters on the sidelines.
I've just seen the CEO has sold the best part of 100,000 shares.
Cheers, that's helped a lot (not).
Good timing though, I suppose.
Yes, that's a very good point about tradesmen. I see it every day.
There is a positive, in that it doesn't rely on currency shifts, as it's all in the UK.
All I know is, if drops much more, I'll be stopped out.
I can stomach losses, but not when they come this quickly.
In some ways a recession would be bad for this company, specially if it hit construction badly. A lot of the trade this business does in the mornings is to tradespeople, and if there is not so many of them about, no doubt sales will drop to a degree...
company i like however, eat enough in their stores as well. one opened near me, im happy and sad as no doubt i will now get fat because of them....... go away greggs you temptress
The share was highly overvalued before, the rise started from something like £8 all the way up and over £24. I have been wantint to buy for a long time but couldnt as it was so overvalued. It's getting sold off now. How low will it go? goodness knows.... could drop as far as £13 who knows. It's a company i like alot i missed the boat
And there you go, most of my holdings battered today, although the FTSE held up pretty well, because the £ fell against the $.
Pure sentiment and nothing has changed, if you believe GRG's statements.
There's no reason not too, imo, as it's not a fly by night job.
As has been said, it's purely market sentiment.
And algorithms at play, imo.
Look, it happens. Easyjet posted guidance at the top end of it's figures yesterday, yet the SP dropped 7%, I believe.
GRG dropped to £10 ish quite recently.
That shouldn't have happened either, imo, but it did.
If that's not a sufficient answer, I'm not sure what you're asking, tbh.
I Dont think you get my point. with so much good news recently in the last 2 updates how can the prices drop over 25%?? i know what i have invested and willing to lose thats nothing to do with my post. Its more to ask why has this drop happened in the past 4 months?
"has this SP ever been a £20 share?"
Well it was £24+ not so long back, so yes, although many said it was over-priced at the time.
With a P/E of 27ish, it's still high imo, but the company is still growing, albeit at a slower rate.
If you're that worried, set yourself a % limit of how much you are willing to lose, set a stop loss and stick to it, no matter what happens.
I have at the forefront of my mind that even in the worst recessions, people still need to eat, fwiw and will hold until something drastically changes.
Nobody can explain the share price. Nothing to do with Greggs. That’s the nature of market sentiment. Sometimes it’s there, sometimes it’s not. They are on to a good thing in my opinion, but a no-deal Brexit is looming. That’s what people voted for, and most businesses bosses have said it can devastate their businesses.
I'm not going to lie this is worrying. 2 sets of accounts filed showing profit and growth and the SP drops over 25% in the past 4 months? has the figures been fudged to make it look better than what it is? has this SP ever been a £20 share? i think some sort of communication would help here.
Q3 trading update
Continued strong like-for-like sales growth
With 2,009 shops, eight manufacturing and
distribution centres and 23,000 employees, Greggs
is the UK’s leading ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses
vertical integration to offer differentiated products at
Total sales up 12.4% for the 13 weeks to 28 September 2019
The store openings are part of wider plans announced a few years ago that would see Greggs aim to open 100 stores a year. Chief executive Roger Whiteside told BBC Radio 4 Today Programme that the firm is equipped to open 2,500 in total.30 Jul 2019
Greggs plans to open several shops across the UK until 9pm, offering hot food, such as pizza slices. Most stores currently close between 6pm and 7pm.
“We want to try and do the same for evening as we did in breakfast. We weren’t in breakfast a few years ago and now we’re No 2 [in the takeaway market].” Only McDonald's sells more takeaway breakfasts
Greggs said it had also overtaken Starbucks to become the third-largest takeaway coffee seller, behind Costa and McDonald’s, while only Tesco sells more sandwiches.
Whiteside said the company had not reached “peak Greggs” and had several avenues for growth. More vegan products were in development, including a vegan doughnut, and plant-based “milks
increasing investment, bringing forward plans for robot-led automation at its pastry manufacturing site in Newcastle and developing ideas such as online ordering for collection and home delivery.
Ordinarily, most stores of Britain's much-loved bakery are open from early in the morning until between 5-7pm.
Greggs is at the start of trials for extended opening hours with c 60 stores open (from zero at the interims) until 9pm (6pm previously), which will extend to c 100 stores by the year end.
60 STORES X EXTRA 3 HRS = 180 EXTRA BUSINESS HOURS A DAY LETS SAY 6 DAYS AWEEK
180 HRS X6 = 1080 EXTRA BUSINESS HOURS A WEEK MINIMUM AND THIS IS ONLY A TRIAL
FOR 60 STORES ,IF IT WORKS WE MAY SEE THE OTHER 840 ODD DOING THE SAME THING
AND WANT THAT IMPROVE THEIR PROFITS
SO TO ME THERE SHARE PRICE AT PRESENT LOOKS A BARGAIN
Valuation: No change to our DCF-based valuation
Our DCF-based valuation remains unchanged from 2,028p, which was updated at the interim results. This implies a P/E for FY19 and FY20 of 24.1x and 22.1x.
SP dropped to exactly 1800 this AM and bounced off it again currenty 1868. Worth buying if it drops to this level again imo easy to predict the pattern of the SP atm GL M
Agree, I had set a target price of £20 a few months ago and just watched it rise and rise, thought I would never get in, jumped in yesterday, not quite at the bottom but good enough and didn't ever think I would get the chance.
It is a very well run business, they have a great footprint now in terms of sites, a great reputation amongst their customers who are very loyal and an economic environment very well suited to their offer.
It would be nice to see a slight lift in dividend, and i am sure it will come, but I cannot see this share doing anything but rising again in the months ahead. GLA
All ways the rebound happens before my dividends get reinvested.
I've been waiting for a drop to buy more.
Fill your boots everyone. This will go back up and will continue to grow over time.
Hopefully going to add today.
Straight off, I'm looking to add, when it appears the fall has stopped.
Let's look at the logic of this.
We're apparently facing really tough times and Greggs is cheap food.
I'm a right tight git, but can't get away from their bacon or sausage bun and a (much better than McDonalds) latte at just £2.10.
If they upped this by 20-30p, I'd still go for it, as it's outstanding value.
The bacon bun alone, would probably cost £1.50 plus in a cafe.
Frankly, I don't know how they do it for the money, but suspect it's a loss leader for their sandwichs, which are more realistically priced.
Yes, growth has slowed, but it will only climb if we do hit a recession, imo.
Hence it's a decent hedge, although agreed, the divi ought to be higher.
They're still expanding though, so probably expected.
Scratch that it's still falling best waiting to see what tomorrow brings before ploughing in ATB M
I was bouncing around myself as I typed earlier lol I have asked lse to remove the first 2 posts ;
Looks like the SP could be bouncing around this level for a while imo GL M
Hi one of the rating agencies re rated Greggs to a sell so this will have a negative affect on the share price
PROFITS U P ,SALES UP, SHOPS UP, IDEAS UP RE MILLS AFTER 4 PM , THE FULL MAKES NO SENSE
EVEN IF WE BREXIT PEOPLE ARE NOT GOING TO STOP EATING IN FACT IF ANYTHING THERE BE LOOKING TO SAVE MONEY
AND EATING/DRINKING AS GREGGS IS VERY REASONABLE .
Today’s drop just crazy (-10.3% at mo) Surely GRG will be on top-10 risers tomorrow. Other than the usual Brexit warning, everything else in update is good news imo.