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Obviously after this news I mean in years to come can it go back to 20 spit it with revenues lost I was expecting dividend as well I thought this would be a safe share to park your money how wrong I was totally shocked
@Jwd222
I have personal doubts that the share price will reach £20 for a little while.
Just a nagging feeling.
We won’t see the highs of 20 anymore?
@Moonman1977
Thanks mate. On a personal level I'm not selling out at a large loss here. It'll take a long time to recover and may dip further, but it's not like the bus operations are in trouble. I don't expect the other rail franchise to be renewed but I'm guessing folk are factoring that in.
So, as a novice, am I right in saying the franchises are about running things. Not ownership.
The buses they own those companies. I live in Brighton as, as far as I am aware, Go Ahead own Brighton & Hove Buses.
The franchises for rail I assume are different ?
What’s the future now will they only have a bus service? No rail
I have to reiterate the vol sold is 200k the vol bought is 200k the shares in issue is 25million, a drop in the ocean in terms of volume if the institutions were worried would not the sold be alot higher as ownership below shows 85% held by institutions
State or Government 0.02%
7,082 shares
Individual Insiders 0.2%
104,970 shares
Employee Share Scheme 2.3%
1,009,417 shares
Private Companies 3.5%
1,490,323 shares
General Public 9.0%
3,848,870 shares
Institutions 85.0%
36,502,666 share
I mean what happened have they lost the rail services or is it in case can forget a dividend this year or next now.
Damn how times change this was supposed to be a safe share with good revenue and solid business expected a dividend this year, not sure what now the future holds will it ever get back to 20 or will they lose the rail for good? Lost a lot today
Has 30 September pushed back?
Is 30 september delayed again?
It says on website 4 October declare is this company going down now have they lost the rail service or will they get it back?
Ate you dumping the shares they supposed to declare a dividend on 4 October
Are you dumping the shares they supposed to declare a dividend on 4 october
What’s the company’s future now will they maintain this high dividend will it go back to 20 pound are they profitable without rail is dividend going ahead this year?
@Canetoad, average daily volume in 2021 is 91k shares, so to be 20% down on 5 x average volume at midday is not tiny, it's a significant reaction.
What is very suspect is that yesterday saw 2 x average volume, even though the price closed up very slightly. Weird.
There is a further contingent liability in the form of an anti competition case against Govia Thameslink that is about to enter court ; https://www.catribunal.org.uk/cases/14047721-david-courtney-boyle-edward-john-vermeer
What are the odds of that case succeeding after today's news?
GOG pretty much totally relies on government support for all of its services. Surely they will struggle to win any more after this and their reputation must be in shreds. Probably best hope is that another operator (I suspect FGP) can pick up the pieces and convince government that the management is all new.
CT-yep so a 19% fall so far today just about equals your calc on profit contribution. Well done (so far??)
Total Shares: 43,177,390
Traded Today: 456,025
Volume Today%: 1.06%
It's significantly higher than ADV, but this is not a big selloff. It's tiny.
@CHRI55: "I agree, rail is dominant part."
In revenue - YES. In profitability - NO.
Alot of BS on the markets Rolls Royce this last few days...last week big rise on no news which was opposite to market then monday this week news re new 2.1b contract broke....come on some possible insider" bs there
I am gobsmacked that this has been known about for some time, but was not released to the market, allowing the share price to ramp up. At the least, it is a serious failure of their fiduciary responsibility and other directors must go.
Also factor in reduction in costs fixed costs and variable costs semi variable costs
Now I know how they managed to pay such big dividends when the share price was over £20.
From what I can tell, the revenue breakdown is:
GTR: 61%
SouthEastern: 36%
Germany: 2%
Nordics: 1%
i.e. the lost SouthEastern franchise represents about 36% of total rail revenue, or about 26% of total group revenue. Taking pre-covid figures, I'm guessing that it represents somewhere in the vicinity of 10-15% of operating profits. That's just a quick and dirty calculation and might be wrong. Please do your own research as my figure could be wrong.