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I'd say closer to 5p is where you buy by the truckload :)
Yes, there are multiple possible outcomes, and its hard to pinpoint which one it will be, but action (read volatility) is guaranteed !!
Below 10p seems like a great price to buy more, assuming Seafox can only bid a minimum of 22p, but I doubt things will be as a simple as that. The next few months could produce all kinds of outcome.
I'm intrigued to know how the new board members are improving the performance of the company for the benefit of shareholders, the way they promised they would before the votes were cast... It's been very quiet since their election.
You are right. Just looked at yesterday's volumes which was relatively big, still under GBP 50k though. Very hard to read Seafox's intentions at this point. I looked at the timeline of events, and noticed that Seafox bumped up the stake on 4/5th June, days after the AGM agenda was published on 29 May. Most likely Seafox saw it coming that they would lose control if the items in the agenda were passed, and perhaps this is the only reason they bought upto 30%. Luckily they still don't control the board, so again, who knows if they will make a bid once the lock up expires. In any case, 10p should be a floor.
I haven't seen many single large sells, it just seems to be trickling down gradually on small sells. I'm surprised it's dropped below Seafox's offer.
Seems like decent seller in last few days....
The clock is ticking away on the rights issue or placement to some strategic buyer to be in line with the debt restructure. I think they have to complete a rights issue by/before November, and SF's standstill ends around 25 November. To complete a rights issue in 2 months, they should set the ball rolling atleast now.
Rival bidders would have been DP World (because weirdly enough they got into oil and gas service by acquiring Renaissance) and Saudi based Bahri which runs the tankers for Aramco; but if they haven't shown any interest till now, I doubt they would come in now since SF has a blocking stake
I'm not sure there are any rival bidders at present but it does make you think; Seafox are currently locked out of negotiations because of their no-increase offer, but a potential rival could come in with a much more sensible (but still cheap because of the current climate) offer that shareholders are more likely to accept. What interests me is the sudden volume - the stock has seemingly seen less than 10 trades daily and barely fluctuated in price over the last few weeks yet today it seems there were 60 trades and the sp has risen back over 11p. I'm not sure if this is a sign of anything significant to come (but I hope it is...).
Any one have any input on what SF's next move might be?
We know they are currently holding 29.99% of shares and could trigger a mandatory offer at 22p share - double the current share price - at any time. But will they?
On paper GMS is worth about 93p a share, does anyone see a rival bidder to SF???
Thanks Albatrox. So that puts to rest the possibility that Seafox had bought those shares.
I don't know about the loan getting paid through operational cash flow, atleast in the short term - need that rights issue (which is an overhang on the stock and puts a cap on the gains) to reduce debt. The board has a deadline to raise the $75m, and will be interesting to see how this evolves - will Seafox be ok with this scenario where they have to inject the largest chunk of cash? Or will they make an offer that the board sees as acceptable? Will be an interesting....
No, they can’t 4Corners, and they can’t get to 30% without board approval during the 6-m period. Also, as TTF pointed out, they don’t represent a majority of the board so I wouldn’t count on board approval for an increase in shareholding before the due date.
IMHO they need to stop lowballing the shareholders and undervaluing the company (current SP reflects uncertainty and not true value). If I were them, I’d be in a hurry because as time goes by GMS performance continues to improve and the loan continues to be paid down, which will be further enhanced by better times ahead (Post COVID, higher oil prices, etc.). This can only lead to a higher share price.
Im not sure. Both the conditions of the no increase offer and the 30% offer both seem pretty mandatory. I tried to find out a few weeks back which would overrule the other in the event both taking effect but I couldnt find anything. One loophole in the no increase business is that another offer can be made if the BoD of directors allows it; now Seafox have two members on the board could it be possible they could influence this, or would they need other directors to back them up? As GMS reappointed the directors that should have been removed, the Seafox directors do not comprise half the board.
Can they do that? They can not make an official bid till they wait till November, but can they buy and trigger an MTO? I am not sure
Or is it seafox completing their 30%? I guess well find out soon.
Someone just sold (and obviously someone bought) a 2m block at 10.875....equivalent to 0.6% of outstanding. Mazroui buying up more?
Guess we are back to the silent period till the 6month period ends in November....
In the news article: 'Seafox, a global offshore jack-up company, was "pleased to note the support" for its resolutions...'. Yeah, more than half the support was them alone! I bet they'd have been mortified if they'd accidentally voted against their own resolutions.
I think the writing is on the wall. Somebody watch the back door ....
Not sure if this is a good or bad thing......on the face of it, I don't like it
No evidence other than identical voting pattern! Total coincidence then.
Acting In Concert
A group acting together in a takeover situation. As defined in the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the Code), persons acting in concert are persons who, pursuant to an agreement or understanding (whether formal or informal), co-operate to obtain or consolidate control of a company or to frustrate the successful outcome of an offer for a company. A person and each of its affiliated persons will be deemed to be acting in concert with each other. Control in this context means 30% of the voting rights in the target company. The Code presumes that certain categories of person will be acting in concert unless the contrary is shown. Under the Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules (DTR) a person will also be an indirect holder of shares held by a third party where they agree that they should adopt, by concerted exercise of the voting rights they hold, a lasting common policy towards the management of the company in question. (DTR 5.2.1R(a)).
Lol :).
Nope, just a GMS shareholder watching with interest.
It seems to me that you're acting in concert with Seafox. Are you an employee of them?
Not long til the GM at noon today.
I’d also missed this Press Release by SeaFox on the 30th July
STATEMENT REGARDING GULF MARINE SERVICES PLC 30.07.2020
30 July 2020
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Seafox International Limited
Statement re Gulf Marine Services PLC (GMS)
On 30 June 2020 GMS announced that they had asked for confirmation that Seafox is not a concert party with any other shareholder. Following that announcement, Seafox has co-operated with the relevant authorities in providing evidence of its relationship with the other shareholders who voted against certain resolutions at the GMS 2020 AGM. The relevant authorities have not treated Seafox as acting in concert with these other shareholders.
Seafox is surprised that GMS decided to make public its request for Seafox to confirm they are not in concert with any other GMS shareholder with no evidence of any such concertedness other than the fact that a number of shareholders decided to vote together against the board recommendations. Seafox believes that GMS itself will have spent a considerable amount of time and effort trying to persuade shareholders to vote with the board and, of course, shareholders decided for themselves as to how to vote. The only relevant fact here is that 58% of shares voted did not support the GMS board.
Seafox urges the board to consider their duties to the company and to all shareholders – a majority of whom actually voted at the AGM decided not to support them.
I think I worded it wrong. What I meant was that there was no short term catalyst to buy this now (other than the possibility of a takeover) given the board power struggle, pending rights issue which is likely to shake some minority shareholders to sell etc. There is no guarantee of a 22p bid just looking at how the bid process has panned out: 7p bid followed by 10p bid and "no increment statement" followed by buying 9% at 22p.
Agree with you that the earnings is looking good and these are good prices, and if they sustain this, its worth more than the 22p .
If you are right 4Corners, then you would think people would be buying like crazy. With Seafox having to pay 22p minimum against todays SP, people currently stand to double their investment....
If there is no takeover, whilst the timeline for the investment to 'mature' may extend, the results just published are very positive and indicate a significantly higher SP value. Either way, buying in at this price looks to be a good opportunity IMHO.
The only guys who need to vote against Seafox are acting in concert with them - i doubt earnings will change their mind. Exciting day nevertheless! Also don't think better earnings will bring in incremental buyers and push up prices - only reason why anyone buys this today is for a takeover.