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Woohoo. A delta of 1.5%. Makes a huge difference in insight as to the composition of the total shareholder base - not - vs an analysis which extends at least to 58% of the shareholder base. Orient's analysis will likely go further but the company only posts the first 20 lines of their work.
When you've got 35+ years of capital markets (or investor relations) experience you can rejoin the debate on this one.
@PUTUP
Your quote ”The Morningstar analysis covers a mere 7.56%” shows that you don’t know how to use Morningstar when I found 9.95%.
Everyone will judge if you have the experience to comment on tools used by professionals.
Agreed t’man - all info welcome as our absentee BoD don’t brother to tell us anything - outside the barebones basics they can get off with. Is there a chairman ? Why Even bother replacing JF ?
Can’t believe we are only worth what we have at bank - the scam oil in the fantasy oilfield is seemingly worthless, the plant and infrastructure we gave them and paid for is apparently worthless as a going concern, the corruption controlled PSC isn’t worth the invisible ink it was written with (doesn’t have long to run Anyway).
Surely an enterprising local consortium will take us over for zero investment - cancel all debts owed by their MNR and the work permits of the infidel workers, and close the gates....... and put us all out of this miserable scam ?
surreyscot, I’d encourage investors to block no-one, read everything and ask questions.
Bravedog and I see things from a different perspective, which is why I welcome his considered input.
I have no difficulty agreeing with my own interpretation of information, which is why I welcome the opportunity to reflect on that of other people.
The last thing I need to do is wrap myself in a comfort blanket and only read the views of people who agree with me.
"I don’t know Orient Capital, but Morningstar is the reference used by professionals."
LOL. Then you've never worked in equity capital markets, or in corporate broking, or in equity syndicate or in investor relations
"I don’t know Orient Capital, but Morningstar is the reference used by professionals."
LOL. Then you've never worked in equity capital markets, or in corporate broking, or in equity syndicate, or in investor relations
'They are not here to give encouragement to genuine investors.'
Yes, because encouragement is crucial to success of investing. Certainly seems the secret to yours SS. lol
Dont waste your time giving that pair oxygen.
They are not here to give encouragement to genuine investors.
Theoryman and Putup,
Before, we had another link with Morningstar which consistently updated the holdings at the end of the month. We could notice discrepancies in the holdings of Capital Group.
The link changed, but not the date at which Capital Group informed Morningstar. I don’t bet for exact reporting from the big institutions unless it is for the LSE or SEC.
Looking at the buybacks from Voleon, I was surprised to see some trades done with low volume and nothing when volume was high: possible that it wasn’t transmitted in time.
If you seek the ownership for major institutions, the % goes up to 9.95% instead of 7.56%.
I don’t know Orient Capital, but Morningstar is the reference used by professionals.
The Morningstar analysis covers a mere 7.56% of the company's stock and does little to aggregate individual funds to individual managers. The work done by Orient Capital, while still imperfect (there is no perfect visibility on these things), is far more informative as it covers 58% of the ownership. The company seems to update this analysis twice a month. It's worth tracking over time.
Most shareholder analysis is still dependent on questionnaire responses. It's the reason why specialists in this area exist. Including the one engaged by GKP
https://www.orientcap.com/services/ownership-analytics.html
Bravedog, thanks for pointing that out - never occurred to me that something like that could still be operating in this day and age of instantaneous movement and tracking!
Since every share has a unique identifier attached and each Institution has a unique identifier as a holder, why can’t this be updated and in the public domain on a more frequent basis, as one of the moves towards transparency? (I’m not referring to Nominee Accounts, just the Institutions that run Funds.)
What still stands though is whatever the timeframe, the total sells far exceeded the total buys. I’ve done a quick search about GKP and any current MCSI, nothing concrete either way so far.
Your point raises another one though. If the time delays are as you state, and I think you are correct, how does anyone know whether Institutions and Hedge Funds are currently buying or selling?
"So PU we have 3 -5 years to wait for around £2 a share ?
Presumably then thats why every man and his dog ( Institution and Hedge Funs wise that is ) are currently buying as many shares as they can squeeze out of the remaining PI's who believe all they read on BBoards ? Because they have 5 years to wait for a return ?"
Your words not mine. I said I have a 3-5 year investment horizon in this name meaning I'm prepared to wait for that period to see the results I expect. If they happen more quickly all the better. But I don't expect some mystical pop, more of a grind.
Name some institutions that have bought. Here's a couple that have sold out: BlackRock and Capital Group. In addition, Sothic Capital now known as Astaris has been in the process of winding up, has distributed GKP stock to its investors and we can expect that many of these investors have sold (as presumably the reason the fund is winding up and distributed stock is because investors called their capital back). Astaris is now down to the holdings of the owners of the firm which judging from the filing is one individual. You might now regard him as a private investor. Lansdowne, Dimensional, Precision Capital have all basically kept the same ownership. Schroders dropped off the top 20 list. The best bid in the stock recently has been Voleon COVERING ITS SHORT. A peculiar one on the latest shareholder analysis is Fiera but I wouldn't place too much confidence on the accuracy of that just yet (and nor would you if you understood how these analyses are conducted).
So, no, I don't think every institutional investor and hedge fund and their dogs have been buying the stock. Not many are allowed even to look at a stock of this nature. The key shareholders are guys who play the distressed market. And, yes, they're comfortable with a 3-5 year investment horizon. Oh and I think you'll find they took ownership during/around the time of the restructuring so for them days prior are completely irrelevant (as they should be for you).
So quit with the conspiracy theory BS.
Thanks Theoryman,
You must notice that the most of the funds sold in March-April. The institutions have a date sept 30, but it is only a reporting date.
Look at Dynasty AM. The fund sold 1,773,205 shares in March but the institution show a date of September 30 for the same amount of shares.
In fact, the institutions look if a stock is in a benchmark. It entered an MSCI Index in 2018 around 2£ and it was at the time the smallest component. I don’t know if it is still in the index, but few institutions remain in under researched small caps.
"So PU we have 3 -5 years to wait for around £2 a share ?
Presumably then thats why every man and his dog ( Institution and Hedge Funs wise that is ) are currently buying as many shares as they can squeeze out of the remaining PI's who believe all they read on BBoards ?"
Would be genuinely interested to hear from the 4 investors who liked Surreyscots post on why that is, based on the fact that it's patently not true.
surreyscot, have a look at the latest from Morningstar wrt GKP.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/gkp/ownership
If you compare the totals for buying/selling by the Funds/Institutions, it seems heavily skewed towards selling rather than buying.
I realise there are problems of comparison with the usual monthly changes in top 10 holders, Morningstar do it for the top 20 in each category and over a 3 month period.
What anyone sees depends on what they look at and how much they suffer from confirmation bias.
What the data seems to show IMO, is that a number of Funds sold 100% of their holding in the last 3 months to end of Sep 20. The total number of shares involved did come as a surprise.
So PU we have 3 -5 years to wait for around £2 a share ?
Presumably then thats why every man and his dog ( Institution and Hedge Funs wise that is ) are currently buying as many shares as they can squeeze out of the remaining PI's who believe all they read on BBoards ? Because they have 5 years to wait for a return ?
Errr No.
Another very obvious one and recent addition - binned
LOL
“Personally I think this thing has good gains before it over the next 3 to 5 years. I have continued to add below 73p (last purchase at 71.8p). My weighted average entry price is in the 7 tenths of a pound (today's prices), not some totally ridiculous higher level. A rally back above £2 is a lovely pay day for me”.
PUTUP, you tell us that no one cares what we think, then go onto make the assumption we care what you think. You were wrong.
NUFC, I commend you. A fantastic couple of honest posts and although not your intent, utterly humiliating for Surreyscot who never fails to grasp the opportunity to be quiet. Bravo!
God you guys are hilarious. Paid (or otherwise) City trolls? One of the problems with this stock is that few institutional investors can give a toss about it. It comes with a ton of ESG baggage. That's one of the reasons many have sold out. To claim that there are a bunch of City folk investing time trolling this website is comical to say the least. On the other side of the coin, you have a bunch of bleating private investor "LTH" who seem to wear the fact that they've so patently stupidly long and wrong in this stock as a badge of pride. Wake up. Grow up. Stop reminiscing about days that are long gone. Either own the stock because you believe in its fundamentals, management's ability to exploit them or that change is afoot to improve either. Your bleating here isn't noticed by anyone in management or anyone in the City. If you're not confident about the stock's future, sell it. You can always buy it again if your view changes. Personally I think this thing has good gains before it over the next 3 to 5 years. I have continued to add below 73p (last purchase at 71.8p). My weighted average entry price is in the 7 tenths of a pound (today's prices), not some totally ridiculous higher level. A rally back above £2 is a lovely pay day for me. The rest of you would do well to mark your positions to market, stop looking in the rearview mirror and focus on doing something much more productive that whingeing and whining here with all your conspiracy theory nonsense. The only thing a new reader needs to understand about many of the posters here is that they've been hopelessly wrong for a very long time.
PS: I'd love to see the buyback strategy renewed at these levels. I'd expect it to be one of the top items on the new CEO's agenda once he/she has settled into the new role. The stock needs a solid bid to support the register rotation that is so badly needed.
Measured and constructive responses there nuf’.
My losses are currently in another league from yours, but we live and learn - some gambles go up, some down. This game isn’t over - yet.
A few niggling points:
Reservoir content claims which sucked most of us sukkers into this are well documented, and therfore eminently prosecutable - if porkies have been uttered.
The fabulous awards to the BoD - which co-incided with the sellout, are very questionable - what was the hidden deal there ?
The Logic behind the brilliant buyback strategy .........?
What does management secretively do all day ?
The mounting debts from our sole customer have been allowed to continue beyond commercial belief - when they should have been negotiated always in return for a greater share of the PSC by any half-competent BoD years ago....... alternatively the BoD could have demanded a trip to Court, and the washing of some very dirty linen. Why didn’t they?
The BoD are obviously acting to benefit parties other than their shareholders.
And that leaves the eternal, destructive, birthright of those in power - the unbrideled priority behind all decisions being made in the pretext of running the country for the benefit of its population - that of personal corruption - which is the hallmark of doing Business in this part of the world.
Let’s wait and see how that pans out when the dung hits the cooling fans in Baghdad.
No wonder IOC’s won’t touch this travesty of a Business venture.
Hi Bondsan,
I haven’t held 80,000 for 10 years unfortunately. I first bought around 10 years ago at around 60p and then averaged up all the way to about £1.50. I did not sell when the price hit £4.50... something that I regret obviously... but I was very young and naive, I believed the positivity that I read on these boards and the £8 takeover article. Ever since those days I have averaged down, thinking that a takeover would happen..... yet the price continue to fall to new lows. The more I read about past KRG corruption... the more worried I become that we have all been conned.
I most certainly do not come from a wealthy background - quite the opposite. I am an only child from a single mother. The pain of seeing a large amount of profit transform into thousands of pounds loss is something I will not and cannot forget. Should GKP become worthless one day due to the actions of either the corrupt KRG and GKP board, then I most defo will not be rolling over easily. It annoys me when these ultra rampers who are promising a takeover tomorrow at £35 call me a paid city troll..... I am most certainly not! We should work together to uncover the truth instead of wasting time sharing insults over the Internet.
*shs I meant as in shares , not hs
nufc9
you hold 80,000 hs for over 10 years according to your previous posts and are 28 years of age, 80k shares bought when the price would have been somewhere between 60p and 1 pound 20p old money (2010 ?) is impressive going for someone 18 years of age. Do you come from wealth ?