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" Thats why they are sitting on it."
The incompetent lying bod have been sitting on it with their hands in our pockets since they were "employed"
It's time they actually showed some action and bring the value they have crowed about for years whilst using that excuse to line their pockets.
Meanwhile EVERY time they produce a cost estimate (which again is NEVER actioned) they put the cost up massively.
They bought high pressure equipment to do the permian, I suggest they bloody well use it and get drilling while rig costs are lower.
I would love a positive update on the most recent drilling on ex dividend day please, as well as commencement of a share buyback. Too much to ask?
They have a plan , t will be in the FDP. Thats why they are sitting on it.
they should put in place a plan to actually produce from each formation in Shaikan.
Once that is in place and producing, ALL reserves get counted out for the lifetime of the PSC, at the moment, only a portion of the reserves are being counted in the CPR hence the current SP
Some good contributions on here now and I’m learning a lot from you clever analists with your opinions on what a fair price should be for GKP …… BUT I think we have to face up to the P90 scenario that it is not going to be a ‘fair value’ of the stock at takeover - rather it will be based purely on what deal is done behind the scenes to benefit those in power within Kurdistan.
My concern is - what defense and what measures should be initiated by our BoD right now to thwart the inevitable firesale/sellout - or will internal corruption escape legality as usual ?
A pretty detailed analysis
At sector average yield would be around £5
Heres a comparison analysis to peers.
In Acquisition fair value considerably higher, as it would not be fair... It would be a serious competitive auction. Well into double figures.
"Meanwhile let’s look forward to a positive few months ahead."
On this we agree.
Shortsqueezer, how about a nice round 250,000 shares at a 30% discount to £5.94? Cheap as chips aye?
Apologies for the spelling bloody predictive text on iphone!
Putup - why would I place my bid at 5.94 when I can buy on the open market much cheaper? Strange comment? I my opinion GKP is very cheap at the moment but that is purely my opinion and I would never make any recommendations whether to buy/sell I just make my own personal decisions.
Like I have said previously post your issues with the report to them and it would be interested to see their responses.
You seek very adamant that GKP is worth significantly less in which case good luck to you reaching or target and bid you farewell when that happens.
Meanwhile let’s look forward to a positive few months ahead.
"‘ Gulf Keystone Petroleum is covered by 29 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report’ "
Not one from Simply Wall Street. They don't do fundamental analysis, just computer generated aggregation of publicly available info. But, hey, if you believe the report place your bid at £5.94 in the morning. Or even £5. I will be happy to sell you my entire holding at a 20% discount to this fair value if you've got the wallet to take the trade.
This "low value" OIL Company you lot keep telling us about."
No ss, your mixing your words again to suit your agenda, i am repeatedly confronting you and your mate £26 plus sold tomorrow B/S.
I would gladly welcome a share at £5.94, at least this would compensate those who have lost thousands and maybe anyone who was able to find cash and had the bottle to buy either at the OO or from the crash last year.
Because i trade the share now and keep my expectations low and read all RNSs with caution as with all other share price movement factors, that's my decision, if i am out when/if this pops, then so be it, but at the moment the share price reflects what the market values the company, news would need to be pretty dramatic to propel the price over 200%, but you never know......
Agreed SS - we are indeed ‘dancing with the devil’ as JF once said:
The best the article I have read on Iraq was that recent article on here researched and written by Sherri Laizer in EKurd Daily.
Tough reading, but read and learn - corruption and questionable ethics run deep (even casts shadows on the ex UK PM and their new UK education Minister’s dealings. Both families are extremely wealthy - thanks to Kurd Oil.
Hope nothing untoward befalls Miss Laizer for having the cahunas to tell it as it was.
Dont be too hard on them they are only trolls doing what they are paid to do. Some of them sound more convincing than others but its still all BS. They obviously dont understand what Geopolitics is either .
Go and re read " The Prize" then go figure out where Yergin now works . Thats right he works as a Consultant to the current strategy advisors to GKP. This "low value" OIL Company you lot keep telling us about.
Just a coincidence - right ?
I agree. I’d rather listen to proper analysts than a ln unknown bulletin board poster who only joined this board in June last year. And one who has stated that he owns hundreds of thousands of shares yet takes every opportunity to try to dampen enthusiasm on the basis that he doesn’t like BS. Bloody comical!
"This company report contains some beta features." LOL. " A perceptive remark. I agree with Putup's assessment, and most of his posts, except about buybacks before a slow down in the the growth rate is priced in or a change from profit maker to loss maker is priced in.
Shortsqueezer, even I agree that were a takeover to happen that we could be taken out for £4, assuming the bidder wanted 90% control to do a squeeze out on the dissenters. Why would they offer that much? Perhaps to get the exploration upside for nothing. There are many share price outcomes possible here from an Iran backed Shia militia group rocketing our oil deposit, a PSC repudiation, a successful increase in production to 55 bopd, another oil price crash, etc. I am not clever enough to know which event will happen, but I am here for the most probable event, a successful implementation of the production expansion programme.
I don't think it is good to get excessively focused on analysts' forecasts. They are less likely to correctly forecast future share prices, the riskier a stock is. We have a speculative risk rating. Fingers crossed for good news on the production increase soon.
TM - I agree that these ‘predictions’ should not be treated as gospel and should only be taken in a broader view when investing but I do prefer to read and take note of professional opinions rather than bulletin boards ;)
Like I have said I honestly don’t have any issue with criticism of any views but to just dismiss the report as BS as Putup has is ridiculous.
There have clearly been models used to derive ‘fair value’ from data provided by the 6 sources as mentioned in the report so I have more confidence in that than anything spoken on here.
Anyway let’s hope for another positive week leading upto ex div on Friday.
LS, remember this from over 50 years ago when dealing with making projections from data, “The sins of the fathers are passed down into the sons.”
The final figure used as part of reaching the value of £5.94 is based on an estimate from 4 analysts for 2022, then 3 for 2023 and then a series of estimated adjustments.
There are no values given for what % uncertainty there is in each value used and the overall effect of compounding them.
There is not a competent mathematician alive who would put their name to the outcome of £5.94, it is incredibly too precise - it is seriously unjustifiable IMHO.
A more realistic output would be of the form, the fair value is probably most likely somewhere between £x and £y but it might be an idea if you did your own calculations :)
And to say that when you have supposedly got 6 figures invested here is a nonsense. He’s either got no shares at all, posts negative comments so that he can buy more at this low price, or has a death wish. Either way, he’s not with listening to.
Seriously come on…there is a link in the report which contains the following:
‘ Gulf Keystone Petroleum is covered by 29 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report’ and lists the analysts you can check yourself.
I am all for balanced opinion but to just say something is BS is ridiculous especially when it’s coming from a respective source.
Bucephalus, he’s just another plant. You can spot them a mile away when you’ve been here as long as some of us have.
Still trying hard on a lovely warm sunny afternoon, to dispel a positive analysis....Mmm I can't think why. Perhaps you're just a lovely person, looking out for share holders? Lol...
Why would I bother? Simply Wall Street don't even have an analyst covering the stock. Name the analyst - the person (or team) - who prepared the report, who developed an in-depth understanding of the company's investment case and engaged with management on (at least) the key points thereof. This person or team would also engage with key investors on their views. Again, name the lead analyst.
"This company report contains some beta features." LOL. Tells you all you need to know.
Putup - really this article is from a respectable outfit and has had input from 6 professional outfits.
I know who I have more confidence in lol
Your negative posts are one thing but if you have issue with the findings from simply wall street why don’t you take it up with them post why you think it’s BS and then post their response?
Because I like to call BS when I see it. And I doubt that report, or any post here, will influence the value of GKP over the medium term. Most here (or reading here) don't have the wherewithal to move the price in any significant fashion. No one who does will rely on such a poor piece of 'analysis' as linked to below.
[And despite attempting to bring a sense of reasonableness to the discussion here I've done quite well with my GKP investment which is now 2.6x cost. GKP has been great. Carry on.]