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weathervane, there is no evidence that TK was involved in the first ML article. He was interviewed for the subsequent ML one, but the share price fell as soon as it was published so it cannot explain the early 2012 sp increase.
So the dates contradict what you claim.
Following the Trip to China, which took place right after the second ML article, GKP effectively silenced their Investor Relations operations. It took quite a while for that to be spotted. So once again the dates don’t fit - if GKP wanted to attract investors, why would they cease the presentations etc?
There have been five Chairmen, three CEOs, three CFOs (plus another one being currently selected), three legal directors, three IR managers and a bus load of Non-Executive Directors since the ML articles. Plus various changes of executives in London and Erbil. Not to mention massive changes in the share ownership. Are ALL these people dysfunctional?
The dysfunctional label might (or might not) apply if the management (and major shareholders) didn’t change very much. But the level of change is colossal and it is possibly unprecedented. This might suggest that something - or someone - else is the cause of the lack of progress.
IMO
Thanks for recent good dialogue guys/girls.... pleasant reading at anchor as the sun dips.
Mate said The Great Wall Drilling co. were active in our area quite recently - just tubing work for us (or perhaps a side order was being wokked up under the table too) ?
Leftly was specifically requested by Kozel to talk up GKP. Kozel asked Leftly to say nice things about the company, why would Leftly be asked to do this, make your own mind up, I have.
Leftly’s article was to encourage investment into what is now a completely dysfunctional outfit.
Sankeys, Mark Leftly has said for the past 8 years that his article was properly sourced. Subsequent to his article, the sp was no higher than it had been around the start of that year! His article never actually increased the price at all. It was the following year that the price rose strongly. Nothing to do with his article.
You say he was “used”. But that doesn’t actually fit with his article being properly sourced. The disgraceful threats subsequently made against him raise very serious questions. He had to leave his job because of it. Threats of violence have aLeo been made on the GKP blogs,
The Chinese work was clearly market sensitive. It established that a key assumption in the CPR was incorrect, and reported the achievement of a commercial flow from a previously untested zone..
GKP had established regular payments long before JF even asked the shareholders for the 40k bopd money. So that’s not the explanation.
The oil price had dropped before he asked for the money. So that’s not the explanation either. And he said GKP operations were never affected by ISIS, and he never gave ISIS as an excuse for not doing the work. So it isn’t that.
Timelines shouldn’t slip on simple works such as the return to 40K bopd. The KAR Group haven’t had such problems with their Atrush pipeline construction. imo the cause of the GKP delays is something which JF has not explained.
“Ashti isn’t the best guy to quote”? He was the Minister. But Kurdistan surely hasn’t progressed as he expected.
I fully agree with you, the HCL is key.
The Shaikan Appraisal Programme was completed by 2013.
The new Shaikan wells will provide additional data, albeit not for the Permian. imo there is enough data for any competent and independent firm of reservoir engineers to take a reasonable view of what’s down there. GKP disputed key parts of the CPR from the very start, as you are doubtless aware.
IMO
Good question.
The Iraqis/Kurds are under social pressure to improve living standards using oil revenue that may be enough to make them both compromise to come to an agreement. The fact the USA is involved may help in that process.
"All papers are based on bias and speculation, otherwise they wouldnt sell anything. I actually think Lefty had a solid source, he wasnt to know that a very well organised P&D was in place. He was used."
Thats a generalisation and does not apply to all of them. In any case there is no evidence to support the view that Lefty was used. Thats your opinion .
I have stated on here often enough that I think the O&G Law is the Key to unlocking any pre agreed sale . The Kurds may be corrupt but what they do with their Oil Revenue after they have paid the Producers is not our concern.
Again I would be surprised if the Chinese Study was stand alone and we do not yet know if it was part of due diligence or not.
Generally Project Timelines in Drilling are flexible particularly when part of a larger project workscope. Too many unknowns: Equipment delays / Permits late / Weather / Staff issues / Civil - ground preparation. The list is pretty long.
Its not always necessary nowadays to drill additional wells (or extend existing wells) to confirm reserves. It can be modelled ( using Monte Carlo Simulation for example ) assuming they have sufficient information to allow the client to build a competent model. But to be fair , if GKP were claiming a large volume of recoverable oil from an untested zone then the client may insist on verifying it with additional drilling and testing.
Yes much uncertainty around , but again nothing unusual . IF negotiations were ongoing I doubt any one outside these negotiations would be aware of them and they certainly would not be held in London. IMO
IMO
It's a balancing act: the humungous cost of exploration (especially now in deep, cold water) versus tainting company reputations by dealing with dubious characters sitting on easily proven reserves with peppercorn extraction and marketting costs.
When and how will it all end ?
FDP, CPR and any other 3-letter oil industry abbreviation you like to conjure up to justify delays, missed or broken promises, closed ranks and perhaps even fear among those entrusted to managing our investments - seems to be the key.
SS,
All papers are based on bias and speculation, otherwise they wouldnt sell anything. I actually think Lefty had a solid source, he wasnt to know that a very well organised P&D was in place. He was used.
MOL have talked some numbers, but i believe Gkp have also talked about increased volumes with further production history, I think they will only release the CPR when the FDP is agreed - given that without FDP it will be contingent and not proven, chicken and egg scenario.
Chinese work should have been communicated, but it was a study and not a commercial proccess or market sensitive, I agree its a bit strange thou.
The 40k was if memory serves me right delayed due to regular payment confidence, ISIS and oil price. Thats a mix out of JFs control thats effected all Kurd oils.
55k - isnt this an industry where all timelines slip? Its certainly not uncommon.
Im sure all oil companies are in talks about farm ins, asset buys, potential takeovers all the time, but its the same for all, i dont understand why people are so obsessed with it, given it may never happen.
Ashti isnt probaly the best guy to quote, however i think many including myself thought that consolidation would have happened by now, i think the key is HCL, with the addition of ISIS and KRG corruption not helping. I would argue most believe SH is worth alot, how much is usually the argument and i dont see any conclusion to that without further drilling, especially into the deeper zones.
Sankeys, the Independent on Sunday is not a tabloid.
So you think GKP are holding nothing back? Then how do you explain that MOL have publicly referenced upgrade to the CPR numbers, which they must have possessed in October 2018 in order to quote from them. But JF tells the GKP shareholders nothing.
And why was the Chinese work concealed? That wasn’t tabloid gossip, it was published Chinese academic study of Shaikan which referenced ERC Equipoise as their “predecessor”. And GKP didn’t know how to handle the questions about it.
Then there’s the issue that JF promised a return to 40k bopd. He raised the money from the original shareholders to do it - and then he sat on his hands and did nothing.
And why has the current 55k bopd work programme slipped? JF has been planning it for years. It’s all standard oilfield stuff, as he himself has publicly said. And it’s not even a major programme, So why has JF missed his targets?
What is going on at the corporate level is unknown. Deals are invariably done in secrecy. Just because there’s no evidence of something, that doesn’t mean that the “something” doesn't exist. You can’t prove a negative with a negative.
btw I assume you are aware that Ashti made references to major consolidation within the Kurdistan oil sector? He said “the small and beautiful will be replaced by the large and magnificent”. I very much doubt that Shaikan wasn’t excluded from his remarks because some bizarre bloggers claim 24/7 that it’s worthless lol
Its typical PI behavior when they put tabloid rumour over RNS fact. There are no takeovers coming, the data room was open and no one closed it. Theres nothing to hold back, the company have been very clear, they have set out their plan to 55k and have introduced div and buyback to box in large ii shareholders.