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Inv they will all probably have gagging orders as part of their pay offs.
Let’s be honest while Todd Kozel could sell he also caused a lot of problems for GKP taking on debt that wasn’t sustainable.
I don’t think there have been many innocent parties who have worked at senior level within GKP
it would be very interesting to see an in depth interview with Kozel and Gerstenlauer now.
I think an interview with Ferrier would be dull as dishwater, he would still be under instruction from his masters
Certainly many loose ends and unexplained/irrational events around GKP.
Perhaps JF and Sami could now talk freely to explain what really went on behind the scenes.
It would help redress their years of silence while managing the company on our behalf.
JF was I guess told to make GKP unattractive and 'boring', hence the silly CPR 2 the missing slides and changed labels on slides , the troughing staff share options the failed targets.
Invstrat - I think there are whole load of ‘mysteries’ which need explaining but unfortunately I just don’t see us ever getting to the bottom of them.
I believe SA was handed back with us also having to pay for the privilege due to our inability to deliver on the contractual terms between ourselves and KRG/MNR to develop the field. It’s ironic that we couldn’t develop the field because we didn’t receive payments from KRG/MNR which put us in the mess in the first place.
The $500m plus is ‘owed’ is relating to the recoverable cost pool please see slide 6 of the presentation link below. This relates to previous capex spend which can be recovered.
https://www.gulfkeystone.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/gkp-corporate-presentation-22-jan-2020-vfinal..pdf
Either way there is no doubt decisions have been taken in the past that have have had a negative impact on private investors like myself and many others. However a lot of ‘opportunities’ to make good on the potential are still there providing we get the right person at the helm.
Any positive movements between Political wranglings between KRG and Baghdad would also give a huge positive uplift in my opinion as it would provide stability for any future investors.
It will be interesting to see how quickly a replacement is found for JF as finding replacements for senior level roles can often take a considerable amount time unless they already have someone in mind.
GL
Invstrat, The opinion that there is $400 million of debt for which GKP are not being repaid is incorrect.. That figure is the recoverable Capex which is covered by the PSC. It is repaid in instalments along with the monthly production revenue.
Oh wiseone - I think you should add:
Repaymant (or some other means of recouping) the Longterm debt of some $400M (+ compound interest).
An explanantion of the Sheikh Adi fiasco (did we really pay back $10M to our DEBTOR to drop the development ?) !
I don’t think JF had the appetite or knowledge to diversify, he has obviously became a very wealthy man off the back of GKP.
The unfortunate thing is that whilst we have a fantastic asset we are completely reliant on one customer (KRG/MNR) which has proven difficult at times hence why I believe if we had another income stream even just to cover operational expenses it could have been a shrewd move. However I would doubt JF’s ability to be able to successfully manage something like that considering it took so long to exit Algeria we also had a country manager employed their up until recently!
I think looking head clearly the priorities for the new CEO will be to:
- restore confidence and trust
- resolve back payments $73m plus
- deliver the uplift to 55k bopd
- reinstate dividends/buybacks
- get the FDP approved
- issue revised CPR
Any movement of the above will have a significant positive movement in the valuation so like I have said previously a lot to be positive about going forward.
Let’s hope we get the right person in charge, the sooner the better.
GLA
I think thats a reasonable summary of probabilities. It is well know that JF had little , if any , experience of a CEO position , and I am sure that may have been a contributing factor. He was in Business Development with Maersk ( sales).
I think we will get fair value for GKP if it is ever sold , the large Institutional holders and possibly the KRG will (hopefully) ensure that happens.
I could never see any point in diversification , even in Kurdistan , mainly because of the risks involved and the fact it would divert attention from Shaikan.
I am also confident in my Investment .
IMO
SS - I am positive about GKP future I have to be as I am a long term holder and if I wasn’t I would have cut my losses and sold which I haven’t done so.
Whilst it’s always good to see differing views and opinions hence why I think this board is the only one that actually encourages that debate instead of the constant rubbish posted on the other boards. I do genuinely believe JF did more damage to GKP than positives, people lost trust and confidence in his leadership and that for me was and still is a major contributor to the poor share price performance over the last few years.
Clearly there have been events which regardless of the leadership would have negatively impacted us like all the other E&P in Kurdistan (Payments, Regional disputes, ISIS, Covid etc) however it’s at these times I believe good strong leadership is necessary and that’s why I think other companies have fairer better during these events. I also think the buyback could be forgiven regarding the timing I don’t think anyone could have predicted Covid however the fact they have not cancelled the treasury shares in a timely manner and awarded bonuses at a time the shareprice was falling to the floor showed the complete disconnect between the BoD and shareholders.
Regarding diversification, I also believe there are opportunities to utilise the money better elsewhere although I think that time has passed in the short term (think Bahamas acquisition of CERP to reduce risk and create another revenue stream).
JF in my opinion was completely out of his depth and I think his next successor whoever that may be had a fantastic opportunity to deliver value from a very current low base valuation.
My personal view hasn’t changed about the valuation of our asset I just hope we get the right leader in charge to be able to realise it without us being taken out on the cheap.
GLA
" I give an opinion , with no claim to being either right or wrong"
Usually wrong, deliberately obtuse and generally very opinionated in defense of the board.
Oh, and deeply convinced of strange conspiracy theories.
I call a spade a spade, it's that simple, if you don't like it, put me on ignore to stop crying yourself to sleep at nights.
"so you wish Gulf had paid full price for producing assets in some other country"
You have no idea how to diversify a companies revenue stream do you!
Are you sure you are not the Ferret?!
"You do like trying to make things up don't you! "
H1970 I do not make anything up , I give an opinion , with no claim to being either right or wrong , and thats why I usually put IMO after my posts and normally my posts are based on experience. I seldom , if ever , comment on Corporate Finance or Reservoir Engineering for example.
This is the whole point of a board such as this . You or anyone else has the right to either agree or disagree with me . But its useful to know what you are talking about when you reply. A fact sadly lacking from many , if not , most of your posts.
IMO
IMO
Correct hollie VALERES floated at £10 a share with the money used to buy assets in Kurdistan. It bought GENEL.
"SS - please tell me what positive contribution JF has made in his 5 years in the post that has benefited private shareholders?"
Wiseman on the face of it I agree he has has done nothing to increase the shareprice to reflect the value of the asset and worse , he has failed to explain to shareholders why Project targets have not been met. Which should have been done and that I find strange.
I have just listed what I see as circumstances which would have been difficult to manage ( to say the least) I have also explained in past posts why (a) Project delays are normal in the O&G Industry , due to the major uncertainties involved and other theories to explain the lack of action.
Without actual on specific information (that only GKP can deliver) its impossible to do anything else rather than speculate , and human nature being what it is the worse scenario is always adopted. I imagine all will be clear one day - hopefully sooner rather than later.
IMO
No one is arguing about the fact it was a painful time HM.
So what what you have done ?
Highlander1970, so you wish Gulf had paid full price for producing assets in some other country in which they have no resources and no experience? I see.
How much do you think that would have cost? And where would all that money come from? At a time when GKP didn’t actually have any. Do you really believe that the major shareholders would go through the Restructuring, only to see their investment put at risk from some unfunded adventure? Don’t be silly.
You blame the absence of diversification on Jon Ferrier ? The problem with that one is that the CEO does not determine strategy - the board does.
Its this sort of simplistic analysis and lack of understanding that , sadly , is all too common on here and ADVFN.
Try and put yourself in the BOD Place . What would you have done ? Sold the company for virtually nothing and wiped ALL the shareholders out completely ? At a time when we were fighting ISIS in Iraq ?
They did do that 1-100 is not much better 1 p in the pound you get that in bankruptcy
Yeah, genel value lol. £10 down to £1.30 lol
SS
I never said anything about "bargain assets"
Your terminology - not mine
You do like trying to make things up don't you!
Diversification never happened because the idiot Ferrier can't handle one operation let alone multiples.
The GKP board probably have one of the best assets in Kurdistan and have consistently underachieved yet rewarded themselves despite not delivering their on set targets.
Genel on the other hand whilst have a far inferior asset base have over achieved in the past due to strong leadership.
SS - please tell me what positive contribution JF has made in his 5 years in the post that has benefited private shareholders?
No doubt there has been many challenges in the region but that has not stopped DNO, Genel amongst others delivering value to shareholders.
Its this sort of simplistic analysis and lack of understanding that , sadly , is all too common on here and ADVFN.
Try and put yourself in the BOD Place . What would you have done ? Sold the company for virtually nothing and wiped ALL the shareholders out completely ? At a time when we were fighting ISIS in Iraq ?
A few issues with that one H1970
(1) If you think you can identify bargain assets which come with a strong income stream easily then you really are naive.
(2) It is only recently that GKP has had a strong cash balance. What would have paid for your "bargain" assets ?
"Now cut GKP and the Kurds some slack and be patient."
No
This board has ruined this company for their own benefit. If anything, they should be being held to account a lot more.
"Perhaps one of you "heroes" out there would like to tell me what you would have done in the same circumstances ?"
Diversified out of Kurdistan and built a secondary revenue stream off the back of the then incoming monies.
Doing that would have strengthened GKP's position and kept a shorter leash on the monetary position.
If that had been done, funds would not be in Kurdistan solely and there would be a different overall view as to the vulnerability of GKP.
The only exception to this scenario is if there was a deal years ago dependent on a certain set of circumstances being met.
This could include oil law, regional stability, market share or a lot more that we could not possibly envisage.
There were very many scenarios that could have been played out by the Ferret but he chose to line his pockets and throw shareholders under the bus instead.