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I thought Erdogan's visit to Erbil meant that the export resumption was going to be announced today or tomorrow ... well, at least I have a small profit
Thanks SpArmada, appreciated.
Well you get to buy in cheaper which is your aim here.
Clealry the share price does not like the bloomberg comment - el pump de dump
Here: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/iraq-says-resuming-kurdistan-oil-exports-will-take-some-time-1.2062167
Does anyone have a link to the full text without paywall?
Does the aritcle mention anything about actions of the IOCs ??
Bloomberg just put a big damper on that rise today !!
Iraq saying oil resumption will take some time . Its only been 13 months how much longer do they want ?? Or do they accually want it flowing that's the question. More delaying tactics. Roll on September 2025 then it's Adios Amigos.
That time will fly by for independents baby .
Thanks for the response Belgrano.
I also think the key dynamic here is the desire to undermine KRG economic autonomy/extend ICG economic control. In my view, ICG can wait, whereas KRG (specifically KDP) maybe cannot wait as long. More time that passes, the more likely Kurds will be willing to accept the new realities - we are already seeing that with ICG paying salaries. KDP as far as I know are still boycotting the local elections (I think they are the only ones to do so, too - probably because they have the most to lose from this new reality, but continuing their boycott illustrates their isolation).
All that context aside, in my mind the key news I am looking out for is what I think will most likely happen: IOCs such as GKP going to ICG/SOMO to discuss new contracts - totally outside the purview of KRG.
Probably less favourable than current PSC, but in exchange we get legality, contractual certainty. Implication for recovering debt is not good; Baghdad clearly see that as a separate issue between KRG and IOCs. Fine.
IMO it's GKP's turn to approach Baghdad and start talking about new contracts. Us hiding behind any PSCs made with the KRG is not helping us move forward - especially when Baghdad have repeatedly called them illegal etc...
Small holding compared to some on here I'm sure. I'm averaging at 113, and love to see the SP above that. Not been trading it, holding out for a new operating scenario/rerate and dividends - but it is wild to watch the swings in SP. Once the real news actually breaks, this thing is going to pop~~~
I thought there was going to be an announcement, anyone knows what will be announced?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/iraq-says-resuming-kurdistan-oil-exports-will-take-some-time
Belgrano, are you sure that Iraq pays more for other oil companies?
The PSA-s (Profit Sharing Agreement) that I checked pay around 40% less remuneration vs the Kurd PSC-s (profit oil).
(Although you can argue that Kurdistan is riskier and its harder to extract oil, so higher compensation is justified... But who cares if they just wanted to bring the kurds to their knees?..)
Iraq as reported on Bloomberg that Kurdish oil exports will take time is clear sign of continued lying.
They could have easily resolved this over a year ago but are not doing it by choice.
Now they are playing same trick by trying for yet more delays, who do they think they are fooling, they have no credibility left.
Hi Mendoza,
Quite frankly I don't believe its anything to do with the IOC contracts, that's the excuse they like to hide behind. The truth is its all about bringing Kurdistan under the heel of Iraq, and squashing all dreams of independence.
They could have easily tweaked the law to allow payments equivalent to our current contract terms. Indeed Iraq actually pays more to other oil companies so not unique.
However they do need Turkish water and Turkey wants Kurdish crude, as its also invested heavily in the Kurdish IOC's along with the Kurdish pipeline.
MoUs are just an agreement to agree, without any real legal status.
BUT economics will eventually outweigh politics...it just takes time for the politicians to realise this simple economic truth.
The ITP will re-open because it's in every party's interest that it does.
The rest is about negotiating the terms. And that will affect the timescale.
APIKUR have no place at that table. Their amalgam is too weak, too disparate and too different in terms of the independent members' financial structure.
However, JH does have muscle , because GKP sit in a different space where they can control their own destiny due to their chequered and re-structured financial history and the benevolence of LTHs.
As a consequence, while JH cannot influence geopolitical affairs, he can at least determine GKP's response to those outcomes. While still making money.
Hopefully he'll do that in the best interests of us lot.
Given his actions over the last three plus years I have confidence in his motives and judgment.
Until I don't.
Are reporting oil exports will take some time. 8 mins ago.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/iraq-says-resuming-kurdistan-oil-exports-will-take-some-time?srnd=markets-vp
There's a difference between pump and dump and an anticipatory movement of the share price, yes it may go up and down, but that doesn't make it a pump and dump when there is a real possibility of a resolution, a pump and dump is a specific situation when a recommendation or rumor is made to pump up the share price so of holders can sell as a profit. When the country's leaders are meeting, the USA are adding pressure and OPEC are recommending opening the pipeline, they're not all pumping the share price to make a profit they're trying to get it done.
My (only a year into this so not experienced) thought is it's because there hasn't any will to engage with opening to the pipeline from the IOC energy ministers, the contracts were merely used as an excuse and football to make it look as if something was happening, the political will and pressure has now built up to a point where it looks likely that we contractual issue will be resolved one way or the other and miles coggins said in a recent interview he expected or anticipates at least, new contracts being signed. Given how quick APIKUR have been to stomp on any suggestion that negotiations are taking place they haven't said anything negative about that recently.
This is a P&D. It got to 130 in short order last year on speculation of a deal and this is no different. There will be no unassailable rise until there are firm guarantees of a resumption in exports. Those buying in to this will make a few quid when it drops back down. Bon chance all.
To go, as news comes out of Iraq , later this evening, hopefully push the SP past £1.50 this week
I still don't understand how any announcement can change anything.
The issue is with the IOCs and ICG (contracts), right?
What am I not seeing lads?
🇮🇶🤝🇹🇷 — erdogan’s itinerary while in iraq:
- a meeting between al-sudani and erdogan at baghdad's republican palace.
- signing ceremony of agreements and memorandums of understanding.
- press conference between erdogan and al-sudani
- erdogan’s visit to erbil governorate, 7:30 pm.
- a meeting between barzani and erdogan.
the delegation accompanying erdogan:
- foreign minister hakan fidan
- defense minister yasar guler
- the minister of interior
- the minister of trade
- the minister of transport
- the minister of agriculture and forestry
- the energy minister
- the minister of natural resources
- the minister of industry and technology
source: hxxps:// ****/assyrianewsnetwork/4278
__
🇹🇷 — sources indicate there will be two meetings during erdogan's visit to erbil. the puk will participate in the first meeting, which is of a protocolary nature, where non-critical issues will be addressed. however, the puk will be excluded from the second meeting, chaired by masoud barzani, where substantive matters such as the pkk and oil will be discussed.
source: hxxps:// ****/assyrianewsnetwork/4281
Heavy buying at the top of the price......hmmmmm
Oversold?
Looking oversold.... Hope it doesn't dump heavily invested here
The Chief Legal Officer of the company doesn't think so