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While I will say that I was expecting positive agreements yesterday and as such I’m disappointed. However, the politicians have set their serious negotiating stance, and negotiations will continue from that point. I do believe that Iraq have decided that the IOCs will swallow whatever they are offered, which when taking account of Iraq’s requirement from Western investments, should be palatable if not good. At that point, whenever that might be, my core holding in GKP acquired @136 average price will be more valuable.
In the meantime as I’ve reduced my recommendation to hold and therefore my 114p ‘day trade’ had to be closed before I achieved my 15% target. Never mind 10% s okay, certainly better than nothing if I’d been stupid enough to wait and buy for the 90p that a bird brain predicted a few day ago.
"I agree a united front has been and continues to be strong, but when do we reach the point where it becomes counterintuitive, delaying the point where IOCs individually will need to negotiate individually and directly with ICG/SOMO? I don't know when that point is, but ultimately I think there will come a point where the IOCs will have to go and work out their own terms."
The ICG has, by and large, not yet decided to engage with the IOCs directly. On the contrary, they are largely avoiding the discussion. (In my opinion they're still focused on bringing the KRG to heel.) Until then, it make immense sense to continue for the IOCs to voice a united front and an expectation that current contract terms must be honoured, while at the same time voicing a keen willingness to get back to work (so-to-speak) for Iraq. JH and the others need the ICG/Somo to engage seriously. They will - when they're ready to. In no way is APIKUR a negotiating body for the individual IOCs. They're a PR strategy and a means of expressing a united front to the ICG. That's it.
I like him (Caggins), and I think he has been measured and appropriate in his communications (speaking, content and frequency). I just wonder when it is that individual ICOs like GKP start to negotiate directly with Baghdad - at that stage, contracts will be negotiated on a company by company basis.
So APIKUR can only take us (the collective IOCs) up to a point. When is that point?
A few months ago, after months of no progress, Caggins rightly upped the rhetoric by alluding to (every so gingerly but enough to convey a change in tone) about how US taxpayer funds are given in aid while ICG refuses to open the pipeline; about the issue of sanctions on Iraqi banks; even saying outright that ICG have publicly issued misleading statements (all true).
ICG fired shots back with statements saying that (paraphrasing here) they are the one's who are suffering the most from the pipeline shut-in, and that it is the IOCs who have not handed contracts over, and expect money for contracts ICG deem illegal and were never party to.
Then there was the American trip, and so far nothing material has followed for IOCs in Kurdistan.
So how far can we go, in terms of the collective rhetoric? I agree a united front has been and continues to be strong, but when do we reach the point where it becomes counterintuitive, delaying the point where IOCs individually will need to negotiate individually and directly with ICG/SOMO? I don't know when that point is, but ultimately I think there will come a point where the IOCs will have to go and work out their own terms.
I would love a scenario where ICG cave and say "yes boys, you're owed the money and we're going to pay you out the budget and then bill KRG later" or "we'll co-opt your PSCs based on their current terms" or some other work-around, but the reality is ICG are not under pressure to give ground on any of that, nor would they want to. And I do not see how IOCs collectively or individually have any meaningful leverage to shift that.
Therefore, I could be wrong, but now that the US trip has concluded and Erdogan's visit has also concluded, bar any meaningful news tomorrow, it seems next steps are either APIKUR think about arbitration, or the IOCs start to - publicly or not - talk to ICG and ascertain the shape of their new (legal) contracts.
Just some thoughts.
Wishing you all the best
I find Myles Caggins voice grating. The way he slowly speaks and pronounced each word makes me want punch his face.
That is until I realised why he is doing that. All his interviews are with people speaking Arabic or Sorani so he speaks slowly to give the interpreter time to understand and translate.
Look up on LinkedIn to see why he is the guy for the job:
“ I maintain extensive media, government, and diplomatic contacts and strategic relationships throughout Washington, D.C., and the Middle East—particularly in Iraq, Kurdistan region, and northeastern Syria.”
“ Active Top Secret/SCI clearance.”
Looks like the best person for the job.
ATB to all shareholders
Baghdad’s maneuvering here is intended to lead to the revocation of the KRG’s semi-autonomous status, and international oil companies are now being pressured to sign new contracts with Bagdad for their oil and gas operations on Kurdish territory.
Source: oilprice com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kurdish-Media-Allege-OPEC-Request-for-Resumption-of-Oil-Exports-to-Turkey.html
Company/APIKUR Update soon?
Just a reminder that Rex Wempen (ex-army) was at the time treated like royalty with authorization to walk into most government buildings without exemption at his own behest. (According to Tod Kozel's evidence) so maybe ex-army does carry some gravitas in this region.
You miss my point. ' All for one and one for all' still has considerable value at this stage. JH and GKP should work in close cooperation with the other members of APIKUR (regardless of what you think of their appointed PR guy).
One of the things I find amusing about you Straycat is that you pick arguments against notions that no one here (certainly no one of right mind) supports or would support. It's like you love to fight windmills, straw ones at that. I'd be astonished if anyone here thinks Myles IS the answer.
Enjoy your evening.
'For now there's strength in numbers'...
Wow! Have you looked at the 'strength' of the other members/numbers?
Come on PUTUP, just DYR.
And to be clear, to say that Myles isn't the answer doesn't mean that APIKUR adds no value or that the right strategy is to present a united front to the ICG (which APIKUR helps do).
"To be clear, Myles is definitely not the answer. "
He was never intended to be! He is simply a PR voice for APIKUR. There's a need for that, but why would anyone expect more from him? Responsibility rests with JH and the other CEOs to debate, collectively and individually. For now there's strength in numbers.
PUTUP,
Unless I misread your post, you're in danger of taking my position on this.
What's wrong with you?
To be clear, Myles is definitely not the answer.
The bigger question is how/why/under what auspices was he appointed.
He looks/feels like a guy looking for a political future, and good luck with that.
Doesn't help my GKP position one jot.
Nor will it.
Good luck if he makes into Congress though.
And I wish him well.
But he ain't helping us.
What do you expect from a communications consultant (akin to those deployed by public companies to help with their investor communication)? You should expect zero.
What matters is the CEOs and other management from the affected companies getting down to face-to-face discussions. Shame there haven't been many of those...
Yes.
I read all that tosh PR.
So what?
I saw his 'presentation'.
Genuinely and wholly unimpressive.
He's not a 'Leader' of APIKUR, his firm was engaged for publicity and communication / lobbying, there's other people involved with the IOC's who have a lot of political clout.
"Myles B. Caggins III is a colonel in the U.S. Army. He provides expertise on public information warfare, ISIS, Kurdish affairs, veterans issues, national security, and military culture. He is founder and CEO of Words Warriors LLC a translation, public relations, and business advising company with offices in New York City and Erbil, Iraq. From military posts, combat zones, inside the Pentagon, and the White House (National Security Council), he has led communication strategy for some of the most challenging issues of the past decade, including: America’s rebalance to Asia and policy towards North Korea and China; Guantanamo and enemy combatant detention; the mission to defeat ISIS; military human capital and recruiting; and nuclear security.
Most recently, he served as the U.S. Army’s Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He served three year-long combat tours in Iraq. He is former spokesman for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria where he led a multinational communication team representing 78 nations. He has extensive international media experience and relationships with journalists—particularly on Arabic and Kurdish language networks. He has written commentary for CFR.org, The Root, Richmond Times-Dispatch, and the Armed Forces Journal. He has lectured, paneled, and keynoted at the Council on Foreign Relations, Pepperdine University, Hampton University, Harvard Kennedy School, and the Defense Information School, among other institutions.
He serves on non-profit boards for the Youthcast Media Group, New York Kurdish Cultural Center, and the Advisory Board for Hampton University’s Scripps Howard School of Journalism and Communications.
Colonel Caggins has earned numerous military awards, and decorations, including the Legion of Merit, two Bronze Star Medals, the Combat Action Badge, and the Presidential Service Badge.
Myles earned a bachelor’s degree in history from Hampton University; and a master’s in public relations from Georgetown University. He completed Harvard Kennedy School’s year-long National Security Fellows program in 2018. His personal network is multidisciplinary, multiethnic, and multinational; he is a Life Member in the Council on Foreign Relations, the Military Officers Association of America, and other professional and social organizations." With 26 years involved in the military, he's somewhere in his 40's.
"Patience still required".
In the end, the bet is on the Board and their ability to navigate these troubled waters.
And patience is obviously critical.
Along with confidence in GKP's relative position.
One thing's for sure; APIKUR will not provide the answer.
Pretty confident about that...
"Please tell me you know how these things work!!!"
I do. And still... nada. "Patience still required." The time to get excited is when JH is actually having significant meaningful discussions.
This won't be settled in the courts.
This will be settled by heavyweight and painful negotiation.
But we sit well in this environment because of the Re-structure; thank you LTHs. Genuinely.
Lots of pain I can only imagine.
And Caggins III won't be leading it. He'll be filling his pants in his cot with a very red pushing face.
Who the hell voted him in?
I doubt it was a vote. How could it be?
Three-point action plan
1. JH/GKP gets a confirmation in writing from the ICG/Iraq federal court that the PSC with KRG is illegal, and thus null/void (which Baghdad have been saying all along anyway).
Frees him from current PSC (which is simply dead in the current circumstances – so quicker we mourn and move on, the better).
PSC with KRG now a separate matter. Separate committee/litigation between GKP/KRG. Whatever.
2. JH/GKP begin bilateral negotiations on new contract terms with ICG/SOMO. Make the case regarding sunk costs/ investment recoverable/ etc.
New contact – less lucrative, but legal and gives certainty.
Move forward
Sunshine and rainbows
3. Profit????
APIKUR was a good move, they tried it, but it’s not conducive for progress now. Lack of statement, movement etc. following the US visit shows that. It served a purpose but like Mr Caggings said, oil companies will be the ones signing contracts and that will be that.
Business is business.
Not talking to GKP would be stupid if you're part of the ICG.
Off the record, in smoked filled rooms, without natural consequence or reproach.
Please tell me you know how these things work!!!
"I reckon there's a sh*tload of stuff going on behind closed doors. "
Unfortunately the IOCs aren't involved in 99% of it. GKP isn't anyway...
This report, published in Kurdish by Erbil's Bwar News website, exposes the major players and staggering profits involved in smuggling crude oil from the Kurdistan Region to Iran and Turkey.
For months, four companies have been illicitly transporting over 700 tankers laden with 160,000 barrels of crude daily across borders into these neighboring countries.
Powerful local business conglomerates have established dedicated front companies to facilitate this underground oil trafficking operation from Kurdistan's fields:
• In Erbil, Makal (affiliated with KAR Group) receives crude from Khurmala in Erbil operated by Forza, exporting it through Haji Omeran and Ibrahim Khalil border crossings.
• Pator smuggles oil from Erbil and Duhok into Iran through Sulaimani province via Bashmakh and Parwizkhan borders - For each tanker to pass into the PUK zone, a charge of $300-360 per tanker is applied.
• Unicode (tied to Lanaz Group) transports Duhok's crude to Iran and Turkey.
• Hydrocarbon Company (linked to Qaywan Group) trafficks fuel from Sulaimani and Koya into Iran.
Once in Iran, Kurdistan's oil is funneled to ports like Bandar Imam, Bushehr and Bandar Abbas, where specialized facilities prep the crude for global export.
While most goes to Iran, portions also reach Turkey, with a portion sent to the Tüpraş Batman refinery and the remainder to the Antakya and Mersin refineries.
Oil producers sell to these trafficking firms at cut-rate $28-$33 per barrel, which resell at $60 - a $25 discount to global prices, netting immense profits.
Specifically, DNO, Genel Energy, Taqa, and HKN sell oil at $31.50 per barrel in Duhok province, while Forza, Khurmala, Ain Zala, and Sufaya sell at $32 per barrel, and Sheikhan oil is sold at $28 per barrel.
These oil producers sell between 200,000 and 250,000 barrels daily to the four companies and domestic refineries, generating over $200 million monthly for producers like DNO, Genel, Taqa and HKN. But the real windfall is for the smuggling companies, raking in around $150 million each month.
Sen,
You might be onto something there.
Contractually, pretty sure JH couldn't make representations to the ICG about re-negotiating contracts well established with the KRG.
But the ICG will almost certainly have been in contact with GKP to have those 'chats' and 'off piste'.
Why not? It's a significant field which is self-funded. And debt free. And capable of producing 100k bopd.
If I was representing the ICG, I would be pretty interested in that proposition.
Wouldn't you?
Don't forget from the ICG perspective the basic principle is to divide and rule...in this case APIKUR.
I reckon there's a sh*tload of stuff going on behind closed doors.
Because it matters to all participants.
I thought Erdogan's visit to Erbil meant that the export resumption was going to be announced today or tomorrow ... well, at least I have a small profit