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Seplatwinner,
I follow the Botas Tenders very closely and I have seen nothing to indicate that the 2nd pipeline has been repaired. As the maintenance costs (borne by Botas) have greatly exceeded transportation fees for many years, I don't believe that the 2nd line has been refurbished. For the moment IMO we should consider ca 500Mbopd - Max 600Mbopd to be export pipeline capacity.
Re that available capacity, SOMO - as the sales and marketing authority - has the last word on what grades will be taken and what final export grade will be offered. For understandable reasons of national pride, SOMO aims to reinstate as near as possible the old Kirkuk Grade and, for that to be achieved, quite a portion of the Khurmala/Avanah/Bai Hassan/ Khabbaz and poss even Jambur output could be diverted North. THAT has important implications for the continued export of currently producing KRG fields, incl Shaikan.
C***eye,
to yr Q1: absolutely.
to yr implied Q2: that tiny, NW corner of Iraq - whose border is formed by the Tigris River, has been a smuggler's paradise for hundreds of years. Crossings of Semalka, Faysh Khabur and down to the old pipeline river crossing (trenched) location near Bajid have been lucrative fee earners for tribal powers - and today of course for the KRG. The whole area , right up to the Ovakoy Crossing (planned for many years to be the next main road crossing from Iraq into Turkey, is a hotly disputed corner that Baghdad will have back under its control.
The Syrian lands to the West leading to the Med may look appealing but they are still Badlands - just as bad as the S Diyarbakir corridor where much of the pipeline attacks previously took place.
Moving further South, towards the Rabia crossing is a possibility but suffers from the same Badlands issues - on both the Syrian and Iraq sides.
Nothing is impossible, but it's challenging to say the least, very challenging - and costly, and time-consuming.
We welcome this new account from last week, Mr Mendoza, who is from day one putting out the old conspiracy theories that ICG wants to put its own state (which it holds financial obligations to) into "a fold".
Do you recognize that KRG officials have agreed to the idea oil exports vill go via SOMO (Baghdad's goal), something which forum-pundits for long argued "KRG will fight to their death" that it'll never happen?
Secondly, that in this setup the Iraq state will earn more than KRG (according to the resource allocation state wise) - so the financial incentives are clearly there for a reopening.
There seems to be a quite large misunderstanding on this forum on the notion that, if the exports were to restart KRG will pocket 100% of the revenue and there will be only one winner. Again, KRG already folded on that point and that's in part why Baghdad started to send and allocate budget funds the other month. It's literally one country.
On the pipeline. Total capacity on the Ceyhan pipeline is approx 1.5m barell per day now (assuming the news that the second pipe has been repaired.) January 2023 we saw close to max throughput (on one pipe) when KRG exported approx. 392k and ICG (Kirkuk oil) approx. 86k. I see no immediate ability for Kirkuk to up production another million (!) barrels per day and squeeze out the IOCs. I see the pipe repair aligned with Iraq's long term ambitions to be a major local producer, not an elaborate scheme to put their state in bankruptcy.
I sincerely home GKP comes good and these operational and contractual issues settle down so we can get back to expanding production and paying dividends.
However from ICG point of view, this is a golden opportunity to finally subdue/corral into the fold the KRG/Kurdistan. A key element of doing that is undermining economic autonomy. The alternative pipeline that circumvents Kurdish territory and which still connects to the Turkish side of the pipeline would seem to be an excellent option for ICG.
I found this on twitter (using the word "discontinued").
https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/1769807385990685179
Does anyone have access to a detailed map of pipelines in this area they could link to? Just for reference?
Question: the source cites someone in North Oil Company, but I can't find any other news about it on other sites/any other verification. Assuming this scenario is the case (pipeline out of action), what are thoughts on implications for GKP? Obviously it can continue as a going concern (no debt and profitable), but I'm thinking in terms of revenue/profit generation potential (and dividends) if this is the new reality.
Yes, Co ckeye, it is the deeds, not the words that count in this part of the world, so maybe the ICG will deny the Kurds the use of the export pipeline. Thursday's Finals may have some more info on this. Fingers crossed.
Wouldn't give the KRG leverage, BB? Unless Iraq/Turkey plan to build an alternative pumping station.
C***eye,
no matter, the only available export pumping- and metering station (built decades ago by Iraq, not the KRG) will still be at Faysh Khabur (actually nearer to village of Dayrabun) and THAT is an issue - as the KRG currently control it.
I found the full article:
https://zoomnews.info/en/36541/
No new info, just adds a bit more history.
I’m calling BS on this.
Nobull, they're not building a new pipeline but repairing one that already exists. Oil doesn't care, or spoil, if its taken the long route.
This is potentially very bad news.
"Is the suggestion that the Turkish pipeline will be used (avoiding non-use fees) but that ICG will supply the Turkish pipe by circumventing KRG?"
No idea, but taking oil south from Kirkuk, then across the Syrian border and up to Turkey to avoid Faysh Khabour seems a bit daft. Maybe I have not understood it right.
Unfortunately, no URL was given in the Telegram post (although I recall seeing some news from Zoom News once or twice before - not sure what kind of news outfit they are).
The following image was attached to the Telegram post.
https://ibb.co/C7Xt2Zb
Is the suggestion that the Turkish pipeline will be used (avoiding non-use fees) but that ICG will supply the Turkish pipe by circumventing KRG?
Erratum - $1.4B fine !
Has Turkey paid any of their $1.4M fine yet ?
Is Baghdad paying Erdogan $1M/day to NOT use his pipeline ??
…… is there a trade-off between the above ?
If that is true where is 1m barrels coming from ??
Is Iraq going bypass turkey with this pipeline.
Only makes IOCs negotiating situation stronger.
Still months away from any conclusion though.
I know it's the same on all of them I'm afraid 🙂
Sorry ;-) I love this forum but I hate the personal nagging against others..
Has anyone seen anything about this? Telegram post left no link.
"The Iraqi government has commenced the repair of its aging oil pipeline while discontinuing the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline, a source from the North Oil Company in Kirkuk disclosed to Zoom News. The source further indicated that 80 percent of the repair work has already been completed.
The source revealed that the Iraqi Ministry of Oil has accelerated the renovation and reconstruction of the Kirkuk-Turkey pipeline, which transports oil from the Kirkuk oil fields through the Nineveh governorate to Turkey, bypassing the Kurdistan Region’s oil pipeline.
With 80% of the repair work completed, the pipeline is poised to resume operations within the next two to three months, facilitating the transportation of oil to Turkey. Upon completion of the repairs, the pipeline will have the capacity to transport over one million barrels per day, the source added."
Pilegard, jag tror det finns regler om att skriva på engelska :)
prøv at holde en sober tone i forum og skriv noge ***ligt og faktuelt ;-)
istedet for han sagde.. bla bla bla
The conversation:
SeplatWinner (10:34): We have confirmation from the Iraq Ministry of Oil that 1) negotiations with the IOCs are ongoing and 2) payment of outstanding arrears.
PUTUP (13:43) (You quote my post, hence the ")
"We have confirmation from the Iraq Ministry of Oil that 1) negotiations with the IOCs are ongoing and 2) payment of outstanding arrears."
When and where? If anything we've had statements from the IOCs to the contrary.
SeplatWinner (14:11) Here's a statement from the Iraq Ministry of Oil (yesterday) that negotiations are ongoing.
https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-reveals-developments-in-resuming-oil-export-via-Turkey
PUTUP (14:18): I was replying to the cook. Do try to keep up.
SeplatWinner (14:21): You asked where these statements were, so I provided it to you.
Again, you clearly quote me in your post 13:43 so I really don't understand why you're doing this to yourself?
Mad batter Paul is back...
The conversation:
Me replying to Seplat aka Paul/John etc: ""We have confirmation from the Iraq Ministry of Oil that 1) negotiations with the IOCs are ongoing and 2) payment of outstanding arrears."
When and where? If anything we've had statements from the IOCs to the contrary."
The Cook: "Until this time, where Apikur for once didn't come out and deny this was happening, as they have usually done."
Me replying to the cook:
"So hanging your hat on no comment. Interesting.
Time will tell. Let's see what GKP management say about that later this week. And away from that, hopefully there will be drivers of stock performance in the far shorter timeframe."
This is you below:
"When and where? If anything we've had statements from the IOCs to the contrary."
I provided you a link to your question (which in turn also invalidated your second statement, as this link is post IOC/Apikur statement last week).
Please keep up with your own writing (all accounts).
No numpty. I quoted one and responded to just that.
You asked below where these statements were, so I provided it to you. Try to keep up.