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@Hollamatronic Yes you're probably right, but it seems uncanny that the Price Action follows all these inflection, support and resistance points with uncanny accuracy based on the recent 25.4p top and not the 27p top from Fridays GDXJ auction purchase.
Personally I'll stick with what I'm doing and if it helps me decide when I want to enter/leave the market with my GGP shares and how I manage my risk then I'll do exactly that. If I get it wrong then that is my loss.
Good job the mm's can't even draw a chart never mind read one.
well...MY STOP LOSS is about to be triggered...@18p
Can't be that POG is down, not by THIS much but maybe just overbought
Gold Price Analysis: Elliott Wave downside targets point to the $1767 area
And this is just proof that chart reading is as much rubbish as just plucking numbers out of the air.
Well this drop is now beyond brutal and so far today has fallen through:
> 2nd Head & Shoulders neckline @20.6p ... so target 15.6p
> 3-day descending channel support @19.5p ... so target no idea !
> Fibonacci 50% retracement @18.7p from 25.4p technical top ... so target Fib 61.8% retracement @17.1p
> top of long-term uptrend established Feb-20 @19.5p so support expected at bottom of channel @14-15p depending on when it gets there!
Also major support expected at 15.6p established in Jul/Aug-20 and if that fails then Jul/Aug-20 support at 12p is on the cards.
All IMHO but this has to be one of the most brutal charts I've seen in a long time!
Ouch there goes the 2nd Head and Shoulders Neckline
The 3rd day of brutal Price Action has now breached my second Heads and Shoulders neckline @20.4p and just passed Fibonachi retracement of 38.2% where it is currently sat deciding where it will go next.
I think it will bounce and retest 20.4p now resistance to test my downside target of Fibonachi 50% retracement at 18.7p and possibly recent massive support established back in Aug-29 of 15.6p.
I should have followed my own Analysis and top sliced more methinks. All IMHO of course!
Agreed as always that news drives the SP and charts cannot predict Black Swan events, but I personally find them useful for identify where market inflections maybe particularly once I'd hit my top-slice target and pondering the 'Do I or Don't I top-slice?' question.
Personally I've found it a fantastic problem to have and put my 40% top-slice from GGP in 3 other conviction shares that may (or may not) do something interesting. What is not to like?
Apro good post and agree that both rampers and derampers need to settle down. I agree that it required a retrace as it moved to over 1bn mcap in the space of a week (something like a 400 million increase in company valuation). I do though oppose the value of charts. I dont understand what trend you can get from a share price that can be impacted by so many variables. Your trend for this share could be in an upward trajectory and then the company release bad news left field that collapses all your trendlines, analysis work etc. The graphs and analysis would've never seen the 70% hit this share took when Newmont walked. Im not sold, but i imagine its because im a bit thick and don't understand it.
San
In my book news trumps chart trend analysis. News is due. Good news we expect. That covers it from my perspective.
ATB
I can't be the only one here fed up with the cult-like ramping that has gone on this BB over the last 2 weeks? Perhaps the events of the last week will allow cooler heads to prevail and balanced discussion to resume?
I posted several Technical Analysis posts from 17/18-Sept-20 that were derided at the time and especially after the 27p after-hours trade went through. So just a reminder to see who was closest & perhaps BB'ers will be a little more open to balanced alternative views and/or commentary?
17-Sept-20 A Pause to catch it's breath?
Well the last run up from 12p to 23.3p yesterday started almost exactly a month ago ... so lets be honest it was due a pullback of some sort the question is by how much and for how long?
The last major correction starting on 23-Jul was from 15.6p down to 12p on 18-Aug & was a 50% retracement from the prior run up from 8.4p on 29-May. So if we get a similar 50% retracement then that implies a drop to 18.7p before we are off again.
18-Sept-20 Price Action
Yesterday GGP formed a Head and Shoulders pattern topping pattern on the 1-hour charts with implied 'headline' at 23.2p which it just broke below this morning. If you believe in Technical Analysis then we should be seeing 21.1p soon for the pattern to complete. .... but heck its a chart so who knows?
... and later that day
Price just sat below Headline support at 23.2p. So it will either explode higher or drop to complete pattern at 21.1p. Worst case massive support and 50% retracement at around 18.7p to 19p. Just saying!
So what is my point you ask?
The Price Action is ignoring Fridays 27p technical spike and this morning the SP dropped to 21.1p headline support from the prior Head and Shoulders pattern at 23.2p which it keeps returning to and testing both ways.
There is a further technical Head and Shoulders pattern below the first with a Neckline around 20.4p; if this is breached then falls below 19p prior downside target become more likely. Technical analysis suggests a downside target of 15.7p which is prior support established between 25-Aug-20 and 4-Sept-20.
As always DYOR and yes I am invested from 2.01p retaining 60% of my holdings after I "put my money where my mouth is" & top-sliced at 1st Neckline 23.21p on 17-Sept-20. Doubtless I'll be derided again for speaking up!