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"I don’t think greatland will have a choice"
Greatland will always have a choice as to whether or not to accept an offer for their share of Hav.
They will also always have a choice as to whether or not to recommend a buyout of the company to shareholders. Unless the offer is well over 50p, more like mickey's 74p, I would guess a lot of shareholders will follow that recommendation.
I for one would accept 25p if GH recommended it, because I'd assume he has a better estimation than I about what the assets are really worth. I would also refuse an offer of 50p if he recommended against it, for the same reason.
I can't think I'm alone in that. I think GGP is likely to always have a choice, because I don't think NMC will offer so much money that investors would ignore GH's recommendation.
I don’t think greatland will have a choice
Paddygall, such a great position to be in.
Am sure we all agree that Newmont can pay double what anyone else offers
"Havieron is perhaps..... to good!"
Sungam -- personally I think you may have hit the nail on the head. I think that 12 or even 6 months ago that GH would have been happy to have been contemplating a buy-out / takeover at this point of the journey but as with us PI's adjusting our top-slice points as we've moved up then I'm sure the GGP position and their negotiating hand has been reassessed at every stage along the way.
We now know that GH has had Hannam / Numis looking at the possible value of Havieron to both us and NCM for a long time and as GGP have access to the drill data then they would be preparing their own estimates / modelling in parallel with the number crunching that NCM are no doubt doing.
GH won't be worried whatever way this plays out - all we can do now is let NCM carry on proving the system up in their methodical, proven fashion and we will reap the rewards as sure as night follows day.
Easy hold - Paddy
I think Haveiron would be good business at 50p,but if they want Scally as well,another 25p plus in my reckoning.
My take is 80p-£1 for the whole shop.75p the cash rest in NC shares.
Tom, the 50p figure is a bit subjective but yes that would be for Greatland. Even at this price surely the BOD would still need to put it to the shareholders? Personally i don't want this. I would rather play the long game with similar to Havieron arrangements or selling prospects. However, there will be a price point to Newcrest where risk and reward will be worth an approach imo
Heddles reputation wouldn't be too tarnished with a 50p sale of Greatland! (I don't want this personally!)
Havieron is perhaps..... to good!
I meant Newcrests strategy, not GGPs.
The events of the past 24 hours at Solg will have a bearing on GGP's strategy. They will be perfectly happy with the way life is progressing here and are under absolutely no pressure to do anything other than keep drilling.
However, life is now very different as far as Solg is concerned; it's gloves off time and I suspect Biswas will be spending the weekend thinking about how to respond to Solg.
Ideally we get some holes in the ground with good results at SW before the Havieron MRE. All going well, we could then use the 5% FMV to fund our own drilling campaign at Scally with a view to owning 100%. My guess is some similar results to the Hav drills will trigger an offer we can’t refuse
Absolutely. Rivals are definitely lurking and the best price for Newcrest will be over the next couple of months.
I'd rather get this done with and secure profits this year. If further value materialises then one could always reinvest. We are waiting too many years and i'm sure many investors would agree "Get it DONE"
Let's they make an offer for all of the projects in the Paterson for at least 95p per share. NC have a pretty good idea what the region holds as long as they are happy with Scally and Hav then they could secure the Paterson from other predators and virtuall be in control of the region. They could yhen mothball the other projects for their future?
If they only buy out Hav then that could open the door for RIO and others looking to secure plot here?
I meant that would be best for GGP shareholder value Ipad
Agree that would be the best deal for shareholder vaule going forwards. ie GGP s/h
I agree. The Newcrest shareholders wouldn't agree to buying the exploration arm of GGP which is purely speculative. So yes an offer for the remaining part of HAV once they have a good idea of what is there, and then hope to combine that with a JV on Scallywag.
NCM seem to be more methodical than this. I get the idea that NCM will have a good idea if what is it HAV and make an offer for that, plus some extra for the whole lot of GGP. I can see where that idea comes from, but I don't think that is realistic because GH will want fair value for everything, and as we don't know what is in SCALLY, then noone can say what fair value is.
NCM seem to be so methodical I say it is much more likely that they make an offer for HAV and take it all. Then GGO carry on drilling SCALLY with a view to doing a similar deal on that land in the future.
OK Joe, Ill play your Game since you seem to know a lot about the likely out come here as well and M&A during JV farm in within the gold mining sector..
1st question, How do NC or GGP value the asset in a way that keeps both shareholders happy with any offer made? Genuinely interested in your measured and well thought out response here, as I am sure many will be.
2) we already know there is likely a min of 5.5m OZ there, so to buy us out even on the public info of likely size now will cost a lot as NC will need to pay for 60% of the resource as they only own 40% currently, as a shareholder would you be happy with NC making an offer to GGP for 60% of the value of a likely 10mox plus reseource, when in a short few months, they can spend another 20m and increase there ownership and pay a far smaller % than the 60% they would have to pay now. I can see Sandeep in the board meeting now, "so Guys, you know how important Havarion is to telfer?, I know were about to drill 80km more and have yet to find the extent of mineralisation, but what Id like to do is make an outlandish offer that has to be accepted by the highly expectant GGP shareholders and I want to pay for 60% of this massif resource, yes yes I know we only have to spend 40 odd more million to own 70% and then only by 30%, but Id like to pay double the price now for the unknown resource instead of half the price for the known one on the way" Yup, sure to be slow clapped out the room I will ahve thought, but again, interested in your expect view here?
Make no mistake, I also believe they will buy us out of Hav (hopefully not all of ggp before we drill scally tho)(once 5% fair value is known and they own their 70%)
This board has been over this a gazzilion times, it makes no sense whatsoever for a company such as NC to suddenly become hostile in the hottest exploration province in the world where they currently dont own any licences and joiniors have a wonderful bounty of the hottest ones in town, mostly around us, what does that do for the next JV with anitpa or another junior when they also have multiple interested parties, or what if we then strike at scally or PRE and they come knowcking for a new one. it would be shooting yourself in the foot and from a reputation perspective and I feel would be seen as very short sighted and open the door to other majors. I have not seen NC behave in this way previously but perhaps you can enlighten me, always happy to be corrected with facts or apologise if wrong.
Anything is possible, Sure. So ill stick my neck out and say, if we are made an offer prior to MRE, Ill buy you a fizz pop and throw you a virtual bum slap to apologise for my naivety, Deal Joebass?
Furthermore, if NC drag their feet over GGP, then if I was ceo of Rio, I would move and give NC a bloody nose.
Sungam,
Precisely,
It would be remiss of Biswas to allow GGP value to further escalate.
Knowing and releasing results are not the same and dont necessarily require 80k meters to be drilled. They will know and deal way before any release of results. Refering to buying Greatland not Havieron.
Ask yourself as a shareholder of Greatland if the shareprice is 45p (after MRE of Havieron) what would be the offer price for Greatland? £2 per share... ? To me that would be very expensive for Newcrest.
Today at 11p ish what would be an acceptable price? 50p....?
"And why do you think NC will pay for 60% of a yet unknown resource when they could pay for 30% of a known resource in a short 6 months"
That's bullsnot,
NC can offer for Haverion on this basis right now,,,,,,, pay GGP any outstanding monies from J/V agreement of upto $65 million plus what is agreeable to GGP for the remaining 30%.
Job done.
And why do you think NC will pay for 60% of a yet unknown resource when they could pay for 30% of a known resource in a short 6 months, cmon.
Surely its absolutely in Newcrests interest to buy Greatland now. Not only that, but it has to be before / same time as releasing Havieron drill results which will massively raise the share price of GGP if they are remotely decent and before further exploration is undertaken. Why is it taking so long to 'plan' or announce plans for drilling? Feels like delaying tactics.
Investors wont be waiting for formal MRE, they will know approx MRE from own research.
Key question is what offer is acceptable to GGP and i bet there will be counter offers by rivals.