The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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SB stated 3 weeks ago (and reiterated last week), "We're finalizing our Havieron pre-feasibility study and expect to release its findings in the second half of this year...We're currently finalizing Red Chris pre-feasibility study and expect to release its findings by the end of September this year."
Why then didn't he say that Havieron would also be released "by the end of September".
Therefore, again, IMHO, based on those comments, I don't personally see the Havieron PFS coming in September myself and it is more likely in October, possibly later.
As for it's composition, Shaun Day stated on the 9th September:
"The PFS is due out in the second half of the year and that's really well advanced. Again, when we've talked to the market about this, it's based on a point of time. It's based on where that..the cut off for drilling was around 1st March this year, so all of the drilling you've seen for the last 6 months is upside on top of what's been captured in the study and really it's going to be a segment of that...It's really focused on the fast start."
Ahh I see thanks guy
I think my problem was Sandeep speaks so well and gives off such an air of confidence you dont expect him to get these things wrong, but yes he contradicts himself later in the video so I guess it looks like it wont be September, shame
Amd good night count t h e c h i c k e n s.
Z
No I don't think so.
I have just run through SB's Denver Gold presentation from 15 Sep:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wC5LAxqY85k
At around 9:00 "the findings of the Red Chris PFS will be released around the end of the month" Sep21
At around 10:10 with the Havieron slide showing SB states "Our PFS should be released later this year"
The following slide then shows the milestones for NCM projects:
Red Chris PFS Q3 CY21
Lihir PFS Q3 CY21
Havieron PFS H2 CY21
Then at 11:15 he then says something like "we remain on track to release the Red Chris/Havieron and Lihir PFS studies shortly"
That final statement slightly contradicts his previous statements and the slide.
It is my view and you can make up your own mind, that the last statement was off the cuff and the slide and earlier comments represent the facts of the matter Red Chris end of Sep and Havieron later in the 2nd half of Calendar Year 2021.
Goodnight All
Monty listen a bit further and it become clearer.
I’m more than happy if this PFS takes longer, if this was a simple ore body it would have been out already.
It maybe a “beautiful vertical ore body” but it’s certainly going to be a complicated mining operation and therefore could delay the PFS.
The number of new high grade zones within the Northern breccia , northern crescent and underneath the SE crescent will certainly propel the quantities in the December inferred.
There’s a pocket in the Northern crescent that could contain 1m oz , that 89m @ 11g/t is just fantastic these should all be included.
Evening Monty - I wasn't party (perse) to the comprehensive discussion ongoing days ago, I simply watched from the sidelines because my research has already told me that the PFS is not coming out in September. It changed over recent weeks from "september 2021" to "H2 2021" to "later this year". So u won't find it in my history. You'll have to trawl back in time thru the posts!
We ideally need an MRE(indicated) first. This will bolster the PFS.
MRE(indicated) then PFS, then MRE2 (inferred)....in that order it seems........
Z
Zoros I looked through your post history but couldnt find, has something been officially said to contradict Sandeep saying this month? because he said Havieron, Red Chris and "studies" not study
9m oz MRE seems too high for me, delays and step outs will have absorbed a lot of time up until now.
Personally im expecting 5.5-6.5m oz come Dec, but more than happy to be proven wrong.
Monty - this was discussed to excess some days ago. Red Chris will come out in September it seems. Hav will not.
The purpose of this particular PFS (in addition to what League said), is to satisfy the NCM shareholders and BoD that constructing the box cut and decline leading to Stoping at speed - was the right thing to do. SD commented.
Hundreds of millions have been spent already, the company needs to cross the t's and dot the i's to justify everything.
The PFS offers an accuracy of 20 to 25% of the forecast cost of the project. The PFS will be the entry point for bigger II's to come onboard, forming an essential component of their DD.
The (D)FS in Q2/22 offers a more refined assessment of the project and distills the costs down to an accuracy of 5%.
NCM will pay for the PFS and FS.
On completion of the PFS, NCM increases its majority holding of Havieron to 70%.
If you are looking for fireworks, look not at the PFS (although it will certainly bolster the SP)....watch closely for the MRE(inferred) in December........this will change everything.
Z
I just found the video, Sandeep was talking about ore reserves and said after "key - its before any reserves from Red Chris or Havieron, we will have more to say on that when we release the outcomes of the pre-feasibility studies later this month (September)"
Didnt Sandeep say September recently? or did he say something like "Havieron and Red Chris will get a PFS later this month (september)" but was only talking about Red Chris?
December is a no no , we’ve got the inferred booked for then . This week or next for me .
I think your right micky, I expect to see it before the end of Sept as originally stated, and it is in the 2nd half of the year. Plus they aren't waiting on the results from a lab, this is based on historical data pre March 21
I could see it dropping very soon. Could explain the sp movement too. Good volume!
What would be the point of delaying it beyond September when it’s based on the original MRE?
Debated to death before. There will be a PFS, but not our yet.
We are H2 2021... November is my guess.
Why not SB did say late September .