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Hi Sojourner. It was going to be in the high lands of Tenerife but the military have just banned the sale of farm land to outsiders. I have my eyes on a plot down by Hastings. ATB Speedy
Speedy, that sounds idyllic. Where did you have in mind?
Hi SAS. No siht shoveling for me. I have a plan for a 200 acre plot with Lime trees to the north herbs to the south and everything else inbetween for rent to bee keepers and a share in profits from honey sales. Not fantastic profits but i am sure it is a good use of resources. ATB Speedy
Hi zoros
11m oz au eq is value I calculated for 0.4% copper grade
This might go up or down depending on the average grade, I think realistic grade is 0.4%. A conservative grade would be 0.2%.
Looking at the drilling logs 0.4% looks good.
In the High grade zone 0.6% is very good from Hannams that maybe higher in time
ATB:))
Yep. Patience will be rewarded.
In fact, it'll be less than a year: PFS September.
All good then, Bancal. I think there is lots of room for our SP to increase. In a year this terrible waiting will have been worthwhile.
Q
It’s a fantastic job
Outdoors every day
Hi Speedie, I see most posters spending their gains on fancy cars, holiday homes, holidays paying off mortgages etc etc.
You want a farm, who wants to be shovelling 5hit around and getting up at 5am 7 day’s a week, but I guess it’s what makes the world go round.
ATB
Moooooooo
Afternoon Bamps.
"...Conclusion
@0.75g/t = 15.3m oz (most likely)
@1g/t = 23.5m oz
plus 11m gold equivalent ounces.."
Here comes the thicky question...................
Copied the 15.3 or 23.5Moz as per your calcs.
Where does the +11Moz AuEq come from?
Be gentle!
Z
Hi Bamps. So Hav alone is expected to be in excess of 30mil ozs. The farm can wait till we hit a "Mickey". ATB Speedy
Also it was noticeable how Sandeep went on and on about the ‘ Copper ‘ in the video interview
Which I thought would please you Bamps
My calculations for Havieron volumes which Hannam are in the same ball park
For those that don't understand what 1g/t means to Ggp
I think I've been very careful/conservative with my assumptions:-
"I've gridded the plan and fairly accurately I believe the area = 176,000 sq m after deduction for the dyke.
I've split the depth into 2 sections
900m deep for the 650x375 section
300m deep for the 800x500 section
2.75 breccias specific gravity
0.75g/t average breccias grade
900x 176,000 x 2.75x 0.75 divided 31.1=10.665m oz
300x 314,255 x 2.75 x 0.75 = 6.25m oz
Total = 16.9m oz
I've worked out the gold recovery rate is about 89% average of the breccias and sulphides
Therefore the quantities are around 15.3m oz.
The 2.75 is conservatively on the low side
the 0.75g/t may increase.
On present published dimensions I'm estimating the Eastern breccias around 900,000 ounces, i can't see the average grade or sg being much higher than 0.75g/t or 2.75.
At 1g/t = 23.5m oz
It's all about the average grade but from what I'm seeing 1g/t or less is realistic "
From these calculations I've not taken into account for the High grade zone allowing this to compensate for any waste rock.
I've used 0.75g/t to allow for the shell cut off levels.
Cadia' new Train 3 Flotation process retrieves far more of the gold and copper and prevents it going into tailings, so if eventually employed at Telfer will increase the recovery rate above 89%.
Conclusion
@0.75g/t = 15.3m oz (most likely)
@1g/t = 23.5m oz
plus 11m gold equivalent ounces
plus any cobalt gold equivalent maybe 3m oz
ProfQuatermass, the latest Hannam note has Au production of 187,000 oz Au from late 2023 (let's say start 2024) until 2028 (let's say end 2028) and then 670,000 oz Au from 2030 to 2042 and then 543,000 Oz Au until end of mine life in 2053. If we assume that the ramp up from 187,000 to 670,000 oz is linear then summing that up implies Hannam are assuming a total deposit size of around 16 Mozs.
Just imagine what might happen if we hit at a second target. They seem pretty sure that there are more Haveirons out there.
By my rule of thumb 80p would be based on a 16m oz Au equivalent resource.
It doesn't seem outlandish.
I read the board often, and find my practice of instantly consigning the irrelevant and the uninformed to the bin keeps it a pleasant and useful place.
Thank you Paddy and Bamps for your relevant and informed posts. Thanks Mushroomkid for the excellent jokes.
Q
Hi Paddy
I know how you feel I used to read most posts , now by lunchtime I've had my fill and turn off.
I'm also having troubles keeping my friends upbeat so I try not to bring the subject up.
I can't believe the excitement of Sandeep presentation dwindled so fast into discord.
Unbelievable
My enthusiasm for Ggp has not diminished at all.
ATB:))
Paddy, concur with all fellow posters and a massive thankyou for your informed and considered analysis. Best MFU
PS-As my youngest is staying put in Brum working for HMRC lol after Uni we will be spending even more time visiting one of our favourite cities. Would be a privilege to buy you a beer/Guinness post lockdown
NCM have used the same formula for the NSR as was used at Telfer.
The biggest unknown is the transport costs, this will be a lot different to Telfers.
Hannams AISC says it includes credits but how can they work those out when the likes of cobalt aren't mentioned. $800 may include for higher transport costs.
When the transport is sorted conveyor,train or processing at Havieron and the credits increase the AISC will fall.
6m tons a year will require around 110 road trains say an average of 150 tons each every day, so something needs to happen.
Hi Paddysat
Shame you don’t post as much as you used to, means the plebs take over the board.
Hopefully you’ll do a bit more posting when the sentinel kicks into gear in April!
Cheers for all your posts
GL
Concise, conservative and well thought out valuation. Thank you, Paddy.
Now for my own ramping purposes, ‘Another HGZ’...imagine that. I keep thinking of Sandeeps’ recent comments and how Havieron is now taking center stage even for Newcrest. Our knowledge is months behind actual on the ground progress at HAV, though ‘new target’ inside the JV area has now come to light. Sandeep, what do you know?
Agreed 100% Kevin, that's mostly the reason I don't post as much as I used to. I'm still fully invested here and waiting for it all to play out but people need to do their own research. All the info is there in black & white, it just takes a little effort to read and decipher it.
If people were a little more diligent then we wouldn't have all the wailing and gnashing of teeth during the periods like we are going through now - I've been through this cycle multiple times where the market takes the p1ss and then suddenly we are off and running again.
The catalysts for the share price could be multiple this summer and the current value is more than underpinned by Havieron so I'm more than happy to wait and see what the eventual outcome will be.
ATB - Paddy
Thanks Paddy.
The best way to sleep well at night I have found is to DYOR, stick to known facts and remind oneself of those facts over time.
It's a reasonably easy calculation to work out a figure for the value of the Havieron deposit using the same metric that Newcrest used in their MRE report and then use the most current volume calculations supplied by Hannam in their recent broker update.
The NSR that Newcrest use is inherently conservative considering that they use $1,400/oz Au & $3.6/lb Cu values. The NSR also allows for all deductions for mining, processing, transport and tolling charges to be included so should be reasonably safe to use.
The only unknown would be the level of NSR for the breccia in the bulk mining estimate - I have allowed for A$25. I think that would be about right as the grade would obviously be less and the transport, mining & processing costs would be higher but offsetting that would be the block cave costs per unit should be less than the costs for the SLC mining of the HGZ.
So we know the HGZ from the MRE is 54Mt @ A$50/t
Hannam have estimated 474Mt for the breccia and lets say A$25/t
That comes to A$14,550,000,000
GGP's 30% share is A$4,365,000,000 or £2,444,400,000 which works out to about 58p/share
I would also stress that this is on current drilling and Hannam/Newcrest have specifically excluded the NW sulphide zone and we know that Newcrest are not doing 65km of growth drilling up to June 30th for the fun of it, and we are still open in pretty much all directions and at depth.
I believe that there is plenty of scope for the share price to rise in the coming months - the sentiment in gold and silver will turn (look at copper since the start of the year), Newcrest will continue to outperform against the metrics that they have set for the development of Havieron and if they find another HGZ on the 12 blocks of the JV as they hinted at then all bets are off.
I agree that AIM shares are not guaranteed and are certainly not for the faint-hearted but IMO, Greatland is as good an investment as you could possibly get on the AIM exchange, but please, please DYOR and only invest what you would be comfortable with losing because there are no guarantees.
Looking forward to 14/14 - hopefully next week - Paddy