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As a minimum!!
Would that equate to 10x current MC/SP? That would also do me
Assume you are talking 1 - 1.5 billion JS - I'd take that!
Johhny, apologies I misread your post. I now get your point. I think we agree that NC wont get Hav for 500 million, and nor would they pay 2.5billion. FWIW I think I value the 30% at 1-1.5, assuming some bullish MRE numbers.
10m is the minimum for a tier1 so that’s my starting point.
The rest is guess work and dependent basically on eventual size & remaining drill results. Oh, and all the signs so far that it could be just as big or better than nearby Telfer mine. Not much risk if any now but reward could, yes could, be beyond expectations.
Reddirt does give me confidence,as does Prim comments as mr Clayton understand this area, but does anyone actually realise how unlikely a 20moz find is? I’m trying to manage my own expectations as much as the next guy here,but personally I feel Sandeep will have been just as flattering about us if he thought it was 5-10 given the size and the context of finds in the last decade,their enthusiasm doesn’t mean we’re 15-20,were all just hoping still,for me the next set of results if they confirm the infill of those step outs,then we can get excited about more than 10moz,before is just us PI’S dreaming big!:) and as I said,I hope we are right,been here a long time and it would be great to be involved in another solg. But I still think realistically it’s a 10/1 shot for more than 10moz,which will still take us well north from here.
We all want that bronze,I’m just pointing out that it’s by no means a reality,it’s why we are all invested here for sure,but want does equal HAV.....or does it,lol.
you have to believe that some II or Fund has been raking up stock during the last few weeks because I cant see how they expect to get the shares once this starts moving quick and constantly blue as it did from late december
Agreed Mickey - just excitement all round on this :)))
You speak wise words bronzey, we will be bought out soon.
I haven’t a clue what the estimate will finally be and that is part of the excitement of this share.
What I do know is Hav is going to be a tier 1 addition to Newcrest portfolio and they will not want to share it.
Sandeep talked the other night about Red Chris being on target to become a tier1 mine, that’s because he has the the results. The narrative when switching to have was just as positive without mentioning tier1. He did say to the audience that he encouraged them to look at the latest results. The hint he was giving was to compare them to Red Chris. He may be in future hinting to compare with Telfer.
Size*
Stuart - they want this to be their next generation discovery - look at the size of Telfer their previous cash cow - they’d want something as fruitful as that which is feel is in the region I’ve mentioned
They won’t say no to 10m but I feel we’ve surpassed that already. The way sandeep has promoted this and talked about it I feel very confident we will be in the upper teens in terms of sisw
We are all guessing about the final size of HAV in ounces, all guess work.
However, word on the street from Reddirt is that its 20 mill ounces.
He's a guy in oz, directly in contact with the geo's working close by and that's what they are saying.
He's not been wrong in 18 months of information passed on.
VERY suggestive its a BIG one!
Nothing is 100% though, bloody black swans everywhere, but its looking great.
NC are as desperate to get this sorted asap, that doesn't happen very often with these companies.
We all want 15-20 moz bronze, sadly that doesn’t make it a reality. These researchers you speak of?they will also know that 3moz is big enough for nc although we all think we have surpassed this already, you talk like it is 10moz they throw it in the bin and uneconomical! Lol.
Just to make it crystal clear i think Havieron is worth considersbly more than 500 million GBP not USD but i feel newcrest will buyout greatland as it makes sense for them to do so
The more results that come out the more this will head to a billion market cap company over the course of 2020 and 2021.
For newcrest it makes sense for a buy out as discussed as they have all the infrastructure there for Telfer and the other ggp licences seems nearby so it’s cost effective for them to do this esp
With economies Of scale for them thus reducing extra costs like more Manpower which they can streamline more if everything is under their umbrella
All in all we know newcrest are salivating over Haverion and expediting in all aspects
To get to Mining and subsequently production and as mentioned by the great researchers here they will want 15-20moz imo To make it commercially worth their while if they are pinning their future in Haverion and newcrest wouldn’t make such statements without good knowledge of that they’ve got
We’re criminally cheap here so it’s a hold
Play for me- hold for gold :)
Hi Johhny. I am sure you mean $500mil for hav not GGP. I personally feel it should be a bit higher. The caveat being the drill results. ATB Speedy
500m is peanuts but its not enough to take up the entire share capital off GGP.
Jerry that 2.5 bln is 100 m × 25 year life of mine thats if it they go to production read my post again for clarity. Makes sense for newcrest to just buy out greatland gold instead.
"Now as time goes on into next year Havieron could well be a lot bigger over time that 27 mln ounces but i believe we will never see those days as greatland gold shareholders as Newcrest will most probably buy out GGP in 2020...why because it makes sense for them to do so rather than pay out 100 mln a year to GGP over a 25 + year period for approx illustration purposes = 2.5 billion to greatland.
So Newcrest writing a cheque to greatland for 500 mln is peanuts and still masssively cheap for them ..."
"So when they say 2023 production, I would say its more likely to be 2022 at the latest."
With the resources at their disposal, gold price permitting, I wouldn't rule out late 2021.
And on another note regarding time frames....
Newcrest are about to complete a “6 year farm in agreement” in under 2years.
So when they say 2023 production, I would say its more likely to be 2022 at the latest.
An NPV of x10 is normal for gold miners though, and even higher in Australia, so even if we went the distance (mining) in 18-24 months you could easily attribute £1bn to GGP’s mcap..... just for Havieron.
No ramp, fact
And I dont like the idea of 100myn a year gets a value of 2.5billion. Not sure any mining venture trades at multiples of 25!
Like the positive intent though!!
Newcrests “Average” AISC is massively skew’d by 1 asset