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MAJWand - I do not follow that company so it is difficult to know. But it seems unlikely that the market is wrong by a tune of several hundred million.
If i were to take a stab I would say the answer to your question is on page 9: Initial Capital Cost US$ millions $839 ..... If this company were to find 839 million to fund the mine Capex costs ... i would suspect its market cap and SP would rise by 839 million and the value of gold in the ground would be similar.
The other important aspect is the ASIC... I think the market is starting to anticipate block caving and a low ASIC in the case of GGP.
Oh right sorry, you’re here to save us all losing money. I get you now.
Many thanks, won’t reply anymore as not to clutter the board up.
Enjoy your other share seeing as its such a good buy and good luck
Chippy,
This is the forum of a gold Explorer in Australia, I opened up a question about a valuation comparison in order to understand the reasons for an apparent discrepancy assuming knowledgable posters would have some good discussion.
I know from time to time, somebody on a public bulletin board may raise a point that doesn’t fall in line with the typical confirmation bias. When the fundamentals of the company are good enough though, that persons question is totally irrelevant.
However, if there’s some doubt by the question raised, that person will often be drowned out very quickly by the cheerleading.
Why are you here?
Thanks for the reply’s chaps, some valid points as to the reasonA for the huge difference in market valuations.
Spymaster, interestingly you make the point about the fact that GGP are approaching their maiden MRE as if it’s some sort of advantage vs a company like Vista gold.
Two things:
1. You do realise that Vista gold had completed their MRE many years ago, and have since proved up the majority of their resources into proven and probable reserves. You will know that moving from resources to reserves a hugely costly process.
2. You are aware of the junior explorer lifecycle? The MRE is the pinnacle moment for many explorers, at least for a number of years until they reach production. Follow the link below to see what I mean. Beyond the MRE you enter the permitting stage, where speculators look for the next Explorer at the start of the curve.
Pure Gold is a great example of a share that took off again as it reached the sweet spot (April ‘20), just before production.
https://images.app.goo.gl/hPLGN3myy1UFjMin9
''It was always going to be optimistic on this forum!!''
Then why bother? (Filtered!)
Hi All. The average buy price out of a exploration co is approx 12% of spot/in ground ozs We have gone well beyond this and have been derisked to a great extent. What our price would be today i have no idea but suffice to say it is nearer to the out of ground price. ATB Speedy
MajwandCo The one of many differences is GGP have a Production JV Partner in Newcrest with a Production facility on our tenements doorstep, we can then go through all the other tenements if you so wish but sure you have done your homework.
Once Vista have a partner they may become interesting to investors but as you can see very little liquidity and sentiment appears low.
"You have a directly comparable company"
one is all but confirmed to be tier 1, has a global business partner drilling for them and are about to drop the MRE. the other......
how are these 2 companies even close to being comparable
Agreed both companies have potential, but Greatland in my opinion is way ahead, with its partnership, location, access and assets.
Bitter investor go back and pump you share elsewhere. We are happy here and have no intention of selling.
Dig Deeper,
By GGP's own admission they are between 2-3 years away from first production at Havieron so they are like for like in that regard.
I think it's clear which stock offers greater investment value based on the current status of each. I was hoping for some constructive discussion on valuation differentials. It was always going to be optimistic on this forum!!
BigEvi you are correct, apparently Vista have already spent $100,000,000 still looking for a partner and are at least three and a half years away from a mine.
MAJ - GReatland has a joint venture agreed with a tier 1 mining company ( Newcrest) and a processing plant (Telfer) already built 45km away. GReatland has a toll processing agreement with Newcrest so no Capex involved.
Need I go on - I think not
Hey Deserttrader,
Thanks for the response. You have a directly comparable company in the same country exploring the very same commodity, you would think it would be wise to consider if the valuation was competitive vs peers.
Sticking ones head in the ground is easy, and confirmation bias is plentiful in this forum, so I guess we'll let it continue with "...and don't forget, we've got Scallywag to come yet!".
All the best, it may make one or two people appreciate perspective, which is worth the post in itself
I'm pretty sure I've seen this posted before, almost identical.
Bit of a selective comparison to bolster the crossramp IMO......
In addition, if I were you, try listening into the presentation this evening by GH, may help answer some of your questions.
Hi MAJWandCo, to answer, absolutely no idea why Vista Gold is valued at $16 per/oz. If I was investing I would try to find out. As I am in GGP, no need to. Good luck with Vista, however this a GGP board.
Genuine question here (and for a few with an open mind, it might present an opportunity).
GGP+Newcrest, by the most optimistic of accounts are targeting an MRE of 15m oz gold from Havieron.
30% of which is attributable to GGP (4.5moz). At a current market cap of 730m gbp their (targeted) resource is then valued at $195/oz in the ground.
Take five minutes to look up Vista Gold with a market cap of 95m gbp, their 100% owned Mount Todd project in Australia has a proven and probable reserve of 5.8m oz gold + over 2m oz in the M & I category. Their P&P RESERVE (Not resource) is valued at $16/oz.
Vista Gold have completed a PEA, a PFS and more recently a revised PFS.
Understanding that Vista Gold need a partner to realise the huge potential in the ground, can anyone explain why they think GGP’s oz in the ground ($194/oz) is valued 12x more than that of Vista Gold ($16/oz)?
Genuinely interested to hear the response, and for those with an open mind, you may want to check out this link
https://www.vistagold.com/images/Investor/Presentation/Vista_Gold_Corp._-_Corporate_Presentation_-_September_2020_090120.pdf