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Kempey. No I didnt mean that there was no upside from here! Far from it, I think there is massive upside. But using 8.2p per million ozs isnt any kind of valuation from a target price point of view, as I dont think it would ever trade there. If there was such a thing as 'fair value' I would start at what other companies have traded at based on $x in the ground. Then adjust for our deposit complexity (unknown), the fact that a processing plant is 45km away (I wonder who gets that 'advantage' NC or GGP?) and then adjust for the supposed fact that Aussie assets trade at 2.5 times ROW peers (something that GH said, though I havent heard that elsewhere). I dont know the answer but I am pretty sure its a lot less than 8.2p per million ozs.
Jerry..point taken on using the fully diluted figure but do not understand your point about being no upside for the buyer. If I currently buy at 2.37p and the share is valued at 4p plus then there is upside. If the asset value in the ground is greater than 1m oz then up goes the share value greater than 4p. ...I probably mis understood the point you were making! I will re run my calculations again on the fully diluted figure. Has anyone seen the Numis report on GGP. If so who was the analyst if he/she is named.
Chesters sort of question, would you buy now or wait for next weeks announcement.
On another matter which is starting to tick me off. You CANNOT use the current shares in issue for these sort of calcs. It MUST be the fully diluted, which is about 4.145byn.
Kempey your calculation might be one way of doing it, but on that basis no one would want to buy it as there is no upside for the buyer, plus I dont think any miner trades on that basis.
Hey Gerry , what was the question you are answering to?
Hi Chester. I am doing half and half for that very reason.
Hi Chester
Another option is spread your purchases-take some at a price you are happy with pre news and hols some back in case there is a retrace-hedge your bets a little .Good luck
Sorry mobile typos....corrected
...When GKP announcef the big oil find in Aug 2009, i waited nervously to see how high it went. The share price began at 13.5p then at 10am on the news it literally doubled in minutes. Scores of pi's were selling at around 29p including me. I bought back the next day at 42p and sold in the afternoon at 64p....ridiculous. I ended up buying yet again after the weekend at 100p and panicked out within an hour at 90p. The first hit for me. I never bought again for six months and paid 180p and sold at a loss. If i had simply held on i would have made FOUR times as much by selling at 86p. Sell on news cost a lot of sellers a lot of money. GKP topped out 10months later at 462p.
Thanks Applegarth
Our posts crossed..
Chester
Thanks JerseyCrew
My post was a badly crafted, the main point or question should have been :
"What realistically are we expecting from next weeks Newcrest update other than core results?"
Chester.
If you feel ol about investing now then do it. If not then do what the instutions do...wait for proof of the redource. However, although many will sell on news, it does seem to me tjat thr general market is waiting to unleash a buying frenzy that will finally outweigh any selling. Sell on news this time moght just be a mistake. A good example that affected me personally....
...When GKP announcef the big oil find in Aug 2009, i waited nervously to see how high it went. The share price began at 13.5p then at 10am on the news it literally doubled in minutes. Scored of pi's were selling at around 29p including me. I bought back the next day at 42p and sold in the afternoon at 64p....ridiculoud. I ended up buying yet again after thw weekend at 100p and panicked out within an hour at 90p. The first hit for me. I never bought again for six months and paid 180p and sold at a losd. If i had simply held on i would havr made FOUR timed ad much by srlling at 86p. Sell on news cost a lot of sellerd a lot of money. GKP topped out 10months later at 462p.
A short term question that I think you need to make your own decision on Chester. I make my investment decisions based on the long term view and accept the short term games that will be played with the SP.
Good l uck!
Given that the last three or four big news days have resulted in the SP retreating by 20% or so. What realistically are we expecting from next weeks Newcrest update other than core results.
My concern is that the announcement of the 10 to 15 cores we are waiting on may already have been priced in by the 10% traders and sell on news brigade and their plan is to just sell whatever.
Am I better topping up now or waiting until after next weeks news?
This is a genuine concern and would appreciate sensible constructive comments.
Chester.