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Rotherby, misunderstandings seem to be a common occurrence here.
I for one will be surprised if there is not a takeover.
I accept your post re values,
I don't know the right value and have never even inferred I do, if you read carefully my posts were about the value not in relation to the gold in the ground but the value regarding a take over, and hence I valued the 5%/30%
Against the value today of GGP.
Only in reply to 'tiggerman' did I respond with values for gold in the ground, again I did not value the company or Havieron.
My original statements where part of this thread, some seem to read from the bottom up which of course take the thread off the original subject, which was related to NCM's or others ability Take over GGP. I pointed out they could buy into GGP on the cheap during the times when the share price has been depressed, something that as far as I know has not happened, we could go further off the thread but I want to make my position clear.
"Go and check.. That was November (ish) last year. In Ecuador.. With no PFS and no funding. And no infrastructure."
And no business plan or CEO worth mentioning.
I for one am delighted Rotherby is giving us so much of his valuable time . Wonder who you were in your last life though lol
Lenz - yes 9% you are right, sorry, and I know than it is for independent assessors to find a fair value.
Tiggerman
I do have to thank you for your contribution as you are respected on the board , but I don't think i said anything to get this response from you.
As for up side down and back to front talking, NCM did not spend any money and find old seashells .
I only used the figures of the current or figures from the last year and explained where I picked a figure out of the air like your Quadrupling of the shares price, in that I am not saying it would not seriously inflate.
NCM can buy 3% of GGP, without declaring the interest and even after that increase their holding should they wish to 30% without making a T/O bid. I point out could have purchased 3% in the recent past for somewhere around £20 to 25 million, and in small amounts increased their holding in GGP to 5% at a very reasonable cost to them.
This was to try and establish what the market today considers a % pf GGP to be worth, not Havieron.
These two document linked below try to the value on gold in the ground, their values are US$20 per ounce Inferred, US$30 per ounce for M&I, US$160 per ounce for P&P.
GGP based on the gold reserves the only figure we have is 4.2mOZ @ $160 = $672 mill, using the P&P figure
As you used quadruple that figure is about $2500 million
AS you and I own 30% that is somewhere over $800 million.
I do not try to deflate or exaggerate the value, but to present logical figures if these are not to your requirements, I am more than happy for you to de the calculations, but please do not go off on one without anything firm to criticise others.
I am a LTH of GGP and the recent price has been very disappointing.
https://munknee.com/how-to-value-a-junior-miners-gold-in-the-ground/ (most recent)
http://cipherresearch.com/reports/150601_The-Real-Value-of-Gold-in-the-Ground.pdf
@@@ Rotherby ......... Your thinking is entirely upside down and back to front.
What would have happened if NCM had spent $$$65 M , or $$$200 M, or whatever and the prospect was a dud, or unmineable , or too deep , or full of old seashells. That is how JV's work . With Karlajartu, - it has turned up not just a winner, but one of the largest potential gold deposits in the world in the last 30 years , ....... and will maybe be still bigger than that. NCM have a processing plant up the road.........had you forgotten. So |GGP who are a tiddly little exploration company ( were , sorry ), and are now emerging with a huge 50 year life revenue , or a few billions to jog off and repeat the exercise. That is the way business works. So who is getting a bad deal ????? Lucky old NCM , and amazingly fortunate GGP and their LTH shareholders . Bring on the next JV.
Tig
@@@ Rotherby, - NCM could not acquire GGP shares without making a public declaration as to that intention, ...... and that would result in the shares quadrupling. That 25% share is worth around $$$1 Billion plus .....plus .....plus.
Problem solved.
Tig
The fair market value will get done by independent assessors ..from all the information available at the time.
30% of GGP would only get you another 9% of Havieron your maths is a bit out
I hope it is on the basis of the reserves, but I have illustrated the cheapest way to buy 5% of GGP, at this point in time.
And I agree it would be nice for NCM to take a position in GGP, it would boost the price ENORMASLY, once they got to a reportable level, the share price would IMHO would be back above 30p as a minimum.
This said NCM cannot get the 5% at the figures I used, but 40p share price puts the value of GGP @ about £1600 million, on the logic I have put into this thread that values 5% of GGP @ 5% of £1600 is only £80 million, 30% is only £480 million for this you get indirectly 100% of Havieron.
If you have to pay a 15% premium then 5% is under £100 million and 30% is under £600 million.
I have no real idea of the Fair value for 5% but these figures will be done in NCM boardroom.
Rotherby . Fair comment and it would make sense for NCM to have a share in GGP ( it wouldn't do the share price any harm that's for sure ), fair value on the 5% will not be worked out on GGP share price, but in what the reserves are worth I would imagine.
Lenz
I agree completely that the 25% of Havieron (will be) worth a lot more.
Today and recently NCM could buy into GGP for the figures I have quoted so if they wanted it all and to take over GGP they would be best to have built a holding in 'cheap' share, it would have been the cheapest way to get the 30% they will not earn via the JV.
Stock market rules allow them to buy 30% of the shares, today worth a £250 million, that would in fact get them 70% from the earn in , plus 30% of the 25% which is 7.5% of Havieron plus 30% of the rest of GGP.
Working on these figures you have to say 'today' the 5% is worth a very small figure of £180 to 200 million, these are not my figures from what I thing it is worth, they are todays market value @ between 18 and 19p a share.
Rotherby, a couple of things .. GGP has either 30% or 25% if the 5% option is taken up ! If Hav is going to be producing 500,000 Oz per year for example, and GGP share of that is 30% that's 150,000 Oz .. 5% is 25,000 oz PER YEAR is worth a lot more than $160,000 to $250,000
One after thought
65 million US$ to get 70% even if the final spend is $200 million.
why spend at least 1 billion on 30%
and from this why spend $160,000 to $250,000 for 5% assuming GGP value is base only on Havieron 1/6th of the total value
Red - you may wait a long time I do not see a t/o coming Newcrest have a protective stake in GGP.
70% of Havieron will be owned by Newcrest, may have 75%
There are option for this it may be separated into a separate company.
If you are expecting it to come from NCM the could but GGP for 750 million + 33% premium today, top end 1.5 billion, they are debt free so could raise the funds, why wait until the price goes up?
We are all here waiting for the price to rise, each of us have (or should have) our exit strategy based on an increase in the share price. If Havieron is sold off I think today that would be a time I reduced my holding, but today is not the day I have to make that decision.
Once Havieron is sorted what is left, (I hope substancial finds) assuming that the current Drill programs do not hit a great deposit.
I would sum up as "Dreams", GGP could exist doing what most AIM miners do, burning money, in this case money if it still have the 25% interest in Havieron, using those funds will give them a better chance than most of making other discoveries, and paying a dividend.
But my crystal Ball if in for repair so no clear view of where we are going
As soon as PFS is released what will NC want to do.Their MO is to set themselves up for the next twenty years.its how the majors work.looking at the Market and sector we see that institutional input will increase, raratey of the yellow stuff will increase value but more so will be the fiscal uncertainty .The security of liquid assets will be held in gold be it physical or on a digital exchange. I'm holding my tickets and waiting for a T/O offer. ATB Red