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I think GGP will be spending their own money drilling at least half a dozen holes, to hopefully prove there are good grades at Scallywag, before any formal discussions start with anyone about any JV.
Timid, thanks for the info about Cascabel and number of rigs deployed......may read back into that history to educate myself a little.
Caveman, if management uses the Havieron JV as a template they should be sacked. It is a great JV given the times, don't get me wrong, but there are other models that include staged cash payments that would be preferable. The best recent one I know that the a junior has negotiated is the JV between Lundin (LUN.to) & PolarX (PXX.ax). Of course we don't know the details behind the agreement for toll treatment at Telfer. It may be a killer deal for GGP.
I agree in the fact there has to be an agreement in place, but who's to say there won't be? If we're talking April to May, that gives Newcrest four months to be peppering Hav and sort out an agreement with GGP, and they already have one in place as a template....
strudel, at various times SOLG had 10-15 rigs operating at Cascabel. Of course Alpala is a huge, low grade deposit.
I'm not sure there is any rule of thumb.
Seeing as we are about to finish one decade and start another I see no reason for HAV to be the find of the 10s; with Scallywag the find of the 20s.
Tnx for the link to the contour map - that's the one I recall seeing before.
Not too sure I have the geological background to interpret stuff from the second link - other than "they should've kept drilling and going deeper".
Does anyone have previous experience of how many drills get mobilised to prove up a possible Tier 1 resource during its early stages? I think NC were mobilising 2 at their recent investment in Red Chris - it may have been an additional two to the existing two. Six at HAV would imply more optimism? Or just desperation to get ore ready for feeding Telfer?
For sure it's going to be an interesting start to 2020.
Paddy, those lines around Scallywag show the rocks have been very busy! If the gold was going to find its way to surface you'd think there was an easy pathway there.
There are 3 NS structures that cross the NE/SE trending Havieron Fault in what appears to be the area of the hinge zone where Kraken is located. It looks exciting from every angle: surface geochem, geophysics, regional geology, similarities to Telfer, etc.
I would be cautious about ranking this anywhere near Havieron at this stage. Havieron is a once-in-a-decade discovery.
GH talked about how the depth of cover at scally was tiny compared to hav. I think he was talking 50m or less.
As has been said, no way that NC will drill scally w/o a formal agreement. And as ggp drilling there as priority , prob March/April I can’t see the point either.
So is the consensus here that Scallywag holds the key to whether or not Hav is selected by Newcrest for its longer term Telfer sustainability issues? Hav seems a given, but timewise, Scallywag might fill in for a few years of feed in the meantime.
Now I understand better why some earlier posts focussed on upcoming drilling activity at Scallywag.
There's no chance that management will let Scallywag go down the same path as Havieron. It will want to put down 20 holes - five into each of the four high priority targets. After that hopefully one is proved up as the main target. At that point we have to hope that the data is good enough to interest RIO so that Newcrest doesn't assume it is the only viable JV partner. And this time GGP needs to ensure cash payments as well as money spent on drilling. Management has to stop the continual need for CRs.
If you look at the following image you can see that Scallywag is between the 0m & 100m to depth contour lines.
But if you look at the image in Figure 4 on the JORC release on the GGP website it shows a cross-section of the Kraken target which has the historic holes shown also. From the scale it looks like the modelled chargeability is approx another 100m below hole TEA08004.
While it would be great if it started from surface if they hit good grades at 200m then it's still considerably less than Havieron and the near term focus would in all likelihood change to Scallywag.
Should be an interesting Q1 next year.
GLA - Paddy
And with the support of the Havieron field camp there's every chance that they will be out in the field before March/April.
I'm pretty sure that NCM are using DDH1 to do their drilling and that's who we've used in the past. If that have teams in the field for NCM in January then why not for us once they've got the use of all the facilities.
It's only 5km to Scallywag from Hav.
NC ain't going to spend a penny/cent in Scallywag without a formal agreement in place. However, GGP will be drilling there, and possibly getting use of the NC HAV camp facilities to support their crew in the field.
That’s exactly what I gathered from the comments from GH , newcrest get an idea what’s at Scally along with a FS at Hav and take GGP out , MAY/July latest .
OAW, as the rigs are increased next year, has anyone stated that they will all be operating at Hav? (genuine question) Could it be that one or two may put a few holes in the ground at Scallywag, and test the depth and grade there, and if it starts to produce more favourable depths then the attention could be switched to fastrack scallywag.
We already know that Hav has enough results to provide a resource estimate....
I was hoping the answer might become Scallywag. The cover material is meant to get shallower as you move NW. I saw something somewhere in one of the many techie docs I leafed through saying it was 70m in that area on another pretty multicoloured map. No idea where that info was, haven't seen it again recently. Still about 65m thicker than ideal. It also doesn't quite square, at first glance, with info circulated by Paddy yesterday regarding historic Scallywag drilling to circa 100m in four locations. NC stopped having found nowt. They may just have been unlucky in the 30m of hoped for gold bearing material and missed the veins.
Have plonked their four holes' coordinates into the recent satellite images so know where to look* in early 2020 to see if GGP go back down these holes first but extend the drilling to greater depth.
*My co-ordinates may not be accurate - converting eastings and northings into latitude and longitude lead me past a website of brain melting maths. Flattened spheres and curved surfaces being projected into flat planes. Easily taught to a child at this time of year - peel the satsuma in as big a piece as possible and then try and flatten it out to cover the kitchen table. Then point out how many cuts you need to make it lie flat, and where neighbouring bits of peel end up far apart. My locations didn't quite match NC's historic map, although I'm blaming the distinctive sand dunes for moving.
If memory serves me telfer was a 30myn oz resource at one time.
There is a report out by Janus Henderson on Aussie quoted gold miners. Mentions Havieron, ggp and newcrest. Published 22/11. Nothing earth shattering and more historic but all helps.
Strudel, thank you for that.
Are you aware of solid progress being made in a 45km radius of Telfer with in fill easy to get at Au deposits?
Also I would be interested to know what total reserves Telfer had access to when it first started up and ramped up to 500k Oz pa. Presumably a 5mn resource producing for another 10 years at the current rate is a minimum target for keeping it open. But wtfdik.
The time to develop a deep block caving mine at HAV to feed Telfer, without it ever having to be idle, may become irrelevant. If decent shallow ore is found by any exploration activity within the same distance of 45km, maybe even slightly further away, but without our 400m of worthless cover material on top of it, which can be reached via an open pit, it could be developed before HAV.
I'm presuming an open pit that can scrape off a bit of top soil and reach gold ore from 0m can be started within a year or two, and is worthwhile for even a million or two ounces . That stop gap would feed Telfer for a while giving NC all the time they need to get a mine at HAV up and running.
It's always worth keeping tabs on what the neighbours are doing in terms of their own exploration for this reason. I view them as reinforcing our project, not gazumping us. I'm particularly reassured that 6 rigs shows how NC have their foot to the floor to prove up HAV. Any increase in that rig count in Jan will be even more comforting that all my little limit buys / over exposed position is going to come good with patience.
I also doubt much that Telfer would rust to a pile of scrap even if it were shut for a year or two. It's not exactly siting in a harsh wet environnent.
Thanks for that, Btb.
So Newcrest has about a 5 year reserve life left, based on 2019 production rate. Of course, new drilling there might extend that 5 years somewhat but the key to its sustainability ON TIME and without interruption will be if Havieron ore can seamlessly fit into that run-down schedule at Telfer. 5 years from now seems tight to me.
Yes I understand all that, but my question relates to the actual years required to prove up, establish a FS, and financing, BEFORE a ton of ore is actually shipped, to preserve this 10 year+ LOM. A new mine can take up to 5-6 years , full cycle, to get into production. That's all.
Telfer is running at a loss currently $3m which is why they are steaming ahead with Havieron.
Havieron has the potential to keep telfer going for another 10 + years it’s all there for you to read on the newcrest website.
Could the knowledgeable ones here please indicate the likely economic life left at Telfer on present trends, and how ore from Havieron would fit in seamlessly with any rundown there. What is the chance of a large gulf in timelines? Should we be concerned about this?