Tower Resources #TRP, Hardman & Co and Edison speak at London South East’s Oil & Gas event Watch Now
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Oldtimer...good on you. I thoroughly enjoyed your posts. I liked your brief mention on Rio. My own personal view also. Rio will imo will figure somehow and NC /Ggp are fully aware of their presence. Good luck
The sprott view (from January 2019 - my how time flies...):
“unlike ‘big blob’ porphyries, locally / structurally controlled gold such as at Telfer makes any bulk-mass calculation moot. What is apparent is that there is clearly multi-million ounce potential. Similarly an 80m radius cylinder clearly over-simplifies the geometry, yet at the same time could grossly underestimate the lateral extent of the ore as well, for potential >10Moz size.”
They were speculating on 10m back in January. This was at the time of Had 001-004.
Looking at the cores we have reported since then, the size of steps outs, and to my mind an ore body which is far more consistent than I thought it would be given the high grades (fewer ‘misses’ than I thought we would see to date)... this all points to Sprott’s original note ‘grossly underestimating’ the size of the ore, as they said might well be the case.
Something to ponder but it certainly feels like the dots are only now being connected by some.
That’s definitely all from me. Enjoy your Sundays.
The important caveat being private investors do not have rules to govern their buying (if only they did!) where as institutional investors do... the next set of results are the precursor to establishing an official maiden resource. Many IIs will not be permitted to buy until this (internal risk profiles are there for good reason). Once that hurdle is satisfied, you will see some serious action here. Perfect storm is Rio decide they want a taste and then it begins to get very, very interesting.
That’s my tuppence. I’m signing off til Wednesday PM/Thursday AM and ignoring the noise.
You are right to be cautious. The difference is investors are not ‘blind’ to progress with GGP.
If the satellite tracking idea (PaddySat) was not dreamt up we would be absolutely blind to progress at Havieron.
Newcrest run an exceptionally tight ship (no leaks, no snippets, nothing - they run the JV and we are told when we can report and what). Without PaddySat we’d be completely blind to progress. I reiterate this as with most Aim exploration stocks one is.
If the results were bad:
1) Newcrest would not be stepping out and drilling aggressively (not least working through Aussie summer which GGP ‘dare not do’) and increasingly rigs
2) NC would not be giving presentation on ‘underground mining’ at Havieron a week before results
3) NC would not be subtly changing their language in presentations (inching closer to establishing a mineralised find at Havieron)
4) GH would not be talking feasibility studies
I could go on. But out simply, you can be cautious and wait for Thursday morning as someone suggested. Is this the prudent approach in light of the above? Decide for yourself. My view is this represents the best risk/reward in the market at the moment (with transparency very rarely seen)... and transparency NC is not offering up but given PaddySat they can’t do anything about it. If they could, they’d take Sentinel down!
We’re expecting news and if it’s good, for which I have no doubt, it would almost be like being inside on opening!
Why suspension, are you expecting something huge?
If it is good news what are the chances of suspension first thing in the morning as many of us will be receiving the Newcrest email at about 11:30 the previous day?
Wait until Thursday to top up. You never know what news we will have. Could be bad news
You may as well buy more if your not selling until 47p
That’s exactly my thinking
Urban. My point which may have been lost in my rambling is if NC know Hav is huge (15m+).. bid for all of GGP what you know Hav is worth... I suspect GGP would accept.
Old, yes - I suspect GGP holding onto 25/30 % was only possible due to there being multiple interested parties.
I think the whole company sale is possibility (rather than just Hav) because they could get the rest of GGP very cheaply (if Scally comes up trumps) and NC will obviously have an eye on Rio’s growth in area.
I.e. if you are NC and know GGP’s share of Hav to be £700m, offer £720m for the lot, pick up a load of tenements for basement prices (and own 100% of hav income going forward)
The value of Hav can blind shareholders as to true value of ALL of GGP.
That’s how I see it.
It’s a fair point and I agree that the 30 per cent issue is a pertinent point. My opinion is that there was a hard fought but fair negotiation and that the additional 5 per cent provided some leeway which satisfied both parties.
Surely though, if necessary, NC could attempt to renegotiate terms but why not just Havieron rather than the whole company? That is the bit I don’t get. UR
It’s clearly something NC will be mulling over. The gold bull market can move very quickly (after years of underinvestment in junior exploration). All parties know this. As you say. I hope we stay independent. If GGP does sell, then I’d liken a special div and money in the coffers to explore Scally etc (again, worth noting NC have rights of refusal here)
All the play for. Imagine will see some big moves before results as the word seems to have spread. All the best. Nice to see a long termer or two hanging around. I too think GH is a good bloke and well placed to steer GGP through next few months.
Urban, good read. Thanks for your reply. I was here during EG too and concur with your views (past and present).
I don’t however think it’s a sure thing GGP stays independent (I hope it does). To my mind NC are very conscious of RIO moving into Gold and the Paterson.
If you are NC (who go about things far more quietly than Rio) you have to ask whether you are comfortable with 70% of what could (caveat: massive could at this stage) be the next telfer.
Not buying the 30% early could cost them (literally) hundreds of millions. I think they could pick up GGP at a good price now. The more proving up they do, the pricier GGP becomes.
This is why I’m very happy we have Latcham on board. Rio will have a direct line into him.
...hope I am correct.
Roll on Wednesday evening.
Hi Old Timer,
Cheers for post and interesting read.
A topic that has been discussed on here many times (as most likely you are aware) is the question of mergers and acquisitions. I note you mention that people will start asking (many already have) why NC are not buying Ggp outright given the potential. These are my views.
Amongst the many things on here that I have learned since investing in Greatland is just unbelievably difficult it is to discover a resource on the (apparent) scale of Havieron. It has been astounding to see the impact of that find as other companies joined in the scramble for licences in its vicinity and we have yet to learn exactly what the results of that land grab will be.
I recall the days of Newmont and Ernest Giles. There were a great many investors who were absolutely convinced that we were onto something big. At the time, their involvement period had been extended and (over that Christmas) we all expected that the results would be positive. The SP mirrored the view. In the end, Newmont made their decision but the one thing I have never resolved in my mind is how near their decision was to going the other way. No one has ever convinced me that it was anything over than a very close thing and was not the fiasco/debacle terminology that has been often ascribed to the project since. My conclusion IS that it was a near thing and that it took 8 months to reach that (NM) decision.
I recall the interview with GH that day. He was, quite plainly, upset and clearly shocked at the decision. He came out fighting and explained they would attack the NC found 5 x 1.5 anomaly immediately. He did just that. I like the man, take the view that he is honest, and also believe him when he says what his future plans are for this company.
So where does that leave us in my view. He wants to build the company. He does not want to sell. Any major, therefore, would have to make a huge offer to counteract what I have just said. How, however, would that be done. We have just talked about EG where NM were on the land for months. That was inconclusive (’not at this time’ if you recall). How then, unless acting hostile (which I think most agree is v unlikely) would a takeover occur. How can Ggp be valued. What exactly does Goliath, or Kraken, or Black Hills, or Firetower etc etc hold. We don’t know. The majors know how difficult major T1 orT2 discoveries are and that is why NC negotiated as soon as they realised Hav was something exceptional.
Surely better, therefore, for GH, CB, and Ggp to continue this work. Why would a company buy them out only to discover after months or years that there is only one Havieron . Too big a risk surely. My conclusion is to leave Ggp in place to continue what they do best and find, if at all possible, another Havieron or Havierons. That way allows for the best possible chance of the old ‘Win Win’ situation. My conclusion is that a takeover of Ggp in its entirety is unlikely and I hope I am cor
I think you may well be right - I've just double checked again and looks like that is definitely a new drill pad that wasn't there last week.
I think that area is their on site supply dump because we have seen a lot of activity in that area over the last 6 months.
Good spot mate - Paddy
For some fun, this compares early Dec sentinel to today’s sat:
Obviously is disruption from cars, work etc (and not holes) but it gives you a very good idea of the impression they have made on the land over past 7/8 weeks.
The hole in Twitter being the one I have circled and the one I believe to be fresh ground disruption in red
If draw a horizontal line I think the new hole is further south... I think... eyes not what they were.
I might be wrong but I think this is further south than the one you identified?
Attempted to showcase here:
Oldtimer - I think we picked that one up in the last satellite image from 5 days ago - link to Twitter post here.
Paddy - have a look at this:
I think there may be another drill hole north of the one you identified in your post this morning:
I’ve been using an auto comparison tool (uploaded for all to see above, feel free to post on twitter - I don’t have an account) to compare the images (not sure if you have been going by eye when circling them on twitter but it’s quite useful for your sat image work and makes comparisons much easier!)
Looking forward to your second post already oldtimer!!!
What is this "mention" software that you referred to - is this a bespoke software or something that is publicly available??
Great point about the NCM Half Yearly report on the 13th February - I had missed that completely
See link to last year's half yearly on here - there will also be a webcast if they follow the same structure as last year so it will be interesting to hear what Sandeep has to say.
Glad to be of some assistance in spreading the word - but all the info is out there, it just needs to be all brought together.
ATB - Paddy
My hope is that Gerveise holds out for 20p+ (£700m, on current shares in issue). Accept more shares to come online.
He has all along said this is a billion pound company. With scally in the wings and a gold price of 1570 (set to go much higher if Coronavirus grips the world) this, he knows, is a very realistic valuation.
It surprises me nobody has looked back at the (paid for) note from a few months back. This banded around some figures. Gerveise signed this off (so it’s a very very good insight into what he thinks Greatland is worth - they quoted three Aussie gold Cos - quite clearly to my mind to set out their stall for any future bid).
It’s about to get very interesting. Those almost wetting themselves over the prospect of 3p (£105m market cap) will sell and regret it. You can spot those who are taking their first foray in share dealing. This post won’t stop that but they may learn for next time. We will see some wild swings soon (200/300% rises in a day) and very large volume and volatility.
It surprises me we are not north of 4p at this stage. But again, the market is fickle. We’re about to embark on a very news rich period and gold is about to be king again. A perfect storm. Personally I have no worries here and look forward to 2020 (whether that is a special div and we sell just hav, NC swallow the whole comoany, Rio enter the fray, or GGP retain 25-30%). Sit on your hands and you will be rewarded. News of GGP is about to spread. The ‘mention’ software I have set up to monitor small AIM stocks (given their propensity to move on word spreading) shows that ‘Greatland’, ‘Newcrest + Havieron’ and up over 1400% in the past month. Mainly due to posters like Paddy sharing their research. Good luck to all of you, even the bedwetters, and enjoy what is about to be an extreme period of volatility and volume.
Apologies for the lengthy first post