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I agree with MS that NC have more important issues than achieving a fair price for 5% of Hav, as long as they dont try and get it on the cheap.
As for Paddys point about Instos buying, I would think that this is getting closer with every piece of news to becoming an investable company. Instos prefer larger mkt caps and proven resources, and both of these things are happening.
IMHO, I woud say that on a risk/reward basis this stock is cheaper now than it was when it was sub 2p. I realise that this may seem odd to some, but its the way I look at things, and its my opinion.
Makes sense Chris - I'm not too bothered TBF, means my monthly payment into the SIPP can buy more stock at these lower prices although it's x10 where it was when I was getting them at 0.55p 2 years ago.
Could it possibly do another x10 in the next 2 years?
Exciting times - Paddy
JS, they way I see it is that the MRE and getting ore to Telfer is more important now than that 5%. That will come. NC need Telfer to stay open and hav is the route. So, I don't expect them to make an offer for that 5% yet.
This may result in paying a bit more for that 5% but in the grand scheme of things I expect it to be peanuts.
I may be wrong but from a company perspective keeping Telfer open is key to NC.
MS
Hi paddy.thanks for the great info you post for us.
I think they are waiting to see some return ,so we might have to wait until the mine is up and running before the larger investor turns up.
I cannot envisage NC Making any bid for the havieron licence in whatever form until such time that not only do they know there is a significant resource, (which they are well on the way to knowing), but they also know what type of mining operation is to be developed (the process for which is commencing as per Biswas's comments in his recent presentation). Those two factors, Scale and Method, will then easily fit into a model to establish fair value. Now that may not take place in public and may simply be behind closed doors once the info is available to the BoD and Newcrest. The sale of any licence does not require shareholder approval. The BoD can simply do the deal and then announce.
Its getting better as each day passes.
AIMHO and DYOR.
GLA Keep the faith and Patience.
Do we think that the presentation yesterday, which almost guarantees that NCM are going to carry on and mine Havieron will make GGP more attractive to II's now or are we still not on the radar of the big boys?
Hi Jerry,
I would favour an initial payment based on the initial MRE and then some sort of toll / royalty on future earnings. That would support the SP going forward and mean we should never need to raise again.
Cheers Paddy
Good Morning Paddy, you and I are neighbours as i'm close to Solihull as well and there are handful of my co-workers who are LTH as well. I got in around Oct 18 on the back of HAD005 with an average of around 2 so enjoying the ride now. Anyway love the posts. I agree with your view on a takeover being premature. I think Newcrest still have 70% JV 's in place in other junior miners. I'm sure I read somewhere that their business model is to leave the juniors with something which then rewards them and encourages them to go off and hunt out new prospects rather than buy them out. Might have been in a news article somewhere.
GLA
Morning Paddy, MS and Ipad. I get all that and it makes sense. But how do you value what a fair value is to GGP for the 5%? Do you make an initial payment with a claim on 5% of anything else? If so, and GH wants to cash in at a latter date, how does that get valued and who gets it? I can see how it can be done but it all becomes a bit subjective.
Newcrest posting on linked - https://lnkd.in/gihruze
Its all very exciting that they want to mine ASAP but if they do it this way and carry on drilling further down the years then how do we know what the size of the deposit is. How much is the 5% option worth with out the full knowledge of the ground?
MS - Why is everyone talking such sensible stuff this morning, very refreshing I must say.
So we should expect the initial results from the SW-NE drilling direction in the interim assay results in the next few weeks and then we should start to see the results from some of the infill "fan" drilling in the next quarterly.
If they are using that system and branching off the existing collars underneath the 400m of cover then we are going to see a sh*tload of drill results with good/great numbers.
Ooooh Betty - I can hardly wait, the only bummer is Corebox is packing up at the end of this month so no more 3D view of the drilling.
Cheers Paddy
And this is why NC is desperate to get Havieron up and running asap; to boost the NC sp which is a bit in the doldrums. It would make them a much harder takeover target, not to say it couldn't happen. Let's just sit back and enjoy !
PG, agree.
They key to NC and Telfer is getting the ore out of the ground and to the plant so it can stay open.
NC need to do the MRE by end this year to get investment approval and get the mine up and running ASAP.
It is therefore not important enough anymore right now for NC to look for further step outs. They need to do the infill ASAP and that is what they are doing. The step outs will come back when they are done with the initial MRE field work.
MS
Hi Indeep,
What if – and this is just a guess on my part – NCM are now happy that they have a big enough deposit to justify the mine. They will carry on with the infill drilling in the area already defined and I would imagine this infill drilling will also include drilling to greater depths to define the deposit. So they would then design the initial mine around this.
Then you could take the example of Cadia where they have mined a initial cave and are now doing feasibility studies to increase the cave footprint – this could be the model they use to increase Havieron going forward.
GLA - Paddy
With the region now getting as hot as the weather, I would say the risk of NC getting bid for is greater than GGP being bid for. I wonder whether Rio would see enough value in Telfer and the region to justify a bid? Of course the majority of the value in NC is in their other assets, so they would either have to love those too, or know who they could sell them to. Fun times. So many different hypotheses and a bb that just loves to speculate on the future!
Looks like nothing dramatic going to happen today.....pity...
Better just do some work...... Rup
Paddy, loving the threads lately , I'm thinking that if Newcrest / Sandeep are getting ready to start digging the access ramps etc , the one piece of into they still don't have is , just how deep does Hav go. I presume that if we're block caving , then we need to find the " bottom of the barrel ". Otherwise that's cash left burried for all time. So my question / point is how much deeper do we need to drill to find the true limit of Hav, and are they now probing the good stuff to get an answer.
Is there a depth bellow which block caving is un economic. We may have only just scratched the surface , and the mother load is still under our feet.
Thoughts anyone!
No worries Stu - I agree that all the talk of takeovers is premature and a little tiresome but you just have to suck it up I'm afraid.
If NCM are serious about taking the 5% and maybe even the 30% then perhaps GH would have some sort of arrangement to get the percentage of the initial MRE with further staged payments or maybe even a royalty of future reserves.
I'm sure he's the right man to hammer out a decent deal for the shareholders - after all he's a BIG shareholder himself.
Cheers Paddy
Morning Paddy, yes that’s how I see it going to , we will get an MRE not to long after next results and then I reckon the FIRST offer of sorts will follow shortly for GGP, with Scally results in the mix. Can’t see the SP staying at current levels for long , breakout coming imo
Good point Paddy, do we know of where this has happened in the past? I agree this sounds plausible, I do feel it is likely to stop any TO however as how could we put a number on fair value without the full resource?
Lets just hope the step outs have hit like HAD23 and the infill extends the strike, I have always loved the words open at ......
Apologies guys, seems like I woke up on the wrong side of the bed!lol
Good morning Stuart,
Please don't misinterpret my post/question. I am in no rush, indeed quite the opposite as I will be able to release funds in future to grow my stake in GGP.
My musings on a takeover of NCM are hardly pie in the sky, their SP performance of late makes them a (slightly) more attractive target and as has been previously discussed they are on the radar.
Torham
Stu - I don't think anybody mentioned a shortcut or low ball MRE. What they may do is close off the step-outs "for now" and formulate an initial MRE but still state open and depth and along strike. This would then be revised upwards as they continue to drill out.
If anything this is fantastic news as far as I'm concerned because it means IMO that they are now confident they have an "NCM" sized orebody already even with the system still open.
GLA - Paddy
it's called debate and exploring ideas irrespective of their merit
Deliberately undercooking or deceiving the market and taking short cuts to a low ball MRE is not on NC or GGP agenda! Why do people keep talking about this?? We are unable to get fair value unless the resource is known, 25-30km of drill is going to do that.sot back,relax,stop harking on about takeovers and short cuts,gosh,is the end of the year really too long to wait?show me an aim company with better near term prospects!pfff