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Petrodollar, that is a rather unfortunate name as both are showing signs of decline. But that aside you should still post because if you stifle debate that cannot be a good thing. With regards to Oil companies I am also invested in some and also coal, because as I said earlier there will be a place for them, probably not as much as in the past, but developing countries will still be big users as the technology improves like is already happening in the world.
@Petro
Thanks for posting your logic. I don't think last time is likely to be duplicated this time, I expect POG to go and stay higher.
But I think oil v gold is a false dichotomy. Both assets are likely to retain value in a high-inflation environment. Oil may not be great value over a 20-30 year horizon if governments really do what they are saying now (do governments ever keep their promises that long?), but I expect oil usage to remain high over the next 5 years, and I expect much of the inflation under creation right now to rear its head long before the five years are up. So even if one thinks the oil situation is changing in the future, in the medium term, I view it as a very good inflation hedge. I'm in both oil and gold. FWIW.
Hi Petrodollar
I for one hope you keep posting but I've left oil behind me nursing losses in Sound, Solo and Cerp. Stuck what was left in here and nearly got it all back except the wife's faith in shares she's sticking to her Croda £1.40 to £56 and she keeps rubbing it in:((
I need more than 24p to equal that rise and tell her told you so
ATB:))
Sorry Petro but I echo Speedy thoughts here. Also not sure which gold graph you are looking at?Gold rose from Oct 18 from 712 all the way to 1900 high which was in fact the end of August 2011 and only began to drop in Oct 2012 back towards 1000. What is different this time is the fed have run out of tricks. After the last round of QE the fed was actually reducing the monetary supply in an opposite excersise to money printing. That ship has sailed now with negative rates and the sheer volume of what looks like 5 trillion in money printing by the US alone this year. I for one dont think this is the end either, but sadly just the start of the global fiat currencies going to zero, what timeframe, Im not sure. But my money is in Bitcoin and gold for the long term. We were already heading to a recession before Covid, its just sped things up.
I do however believe Oil longer term will fly again, its used in everything, if trump gets in, Oil will be over 100 dollars IMO within three years. Scary times indeed and I am hoping for a scenario where the world monetary system doesn't need to collapse for my investments to make me rich! but collapse it will, its just a matter of when and how. Probably far slower than many predict I feel.
Hi Petrodollar. I understand your thinking, but it is deeply flawed. The fall in the POG after the sub prime massacre was not down to normal market action, it was due to the bullion banks corrupting the market with massive shorts fed by the FED. Now these corrupt markets are loosing their grip on the POG the metals and related stocks are playing catch up and have a lot more catching up to do. Anyone who cannot see that oil use is in a decline had better go to Spec savers, BP at sub 300 says it all. ATB Speedy
It may at first seem counter-intuitive but a falling gold price plays into our hands as this pressures NCM's margins at Telfer forcing them to seek out further efficiencies and sources of high grade ore to bring down AISC. Havieron gives them that Telfer-saving source of valuable ore which is why I believe NCM will eventually try and buy our 25% which may mean the difference between Telfer faltering again and Telfer flourishing
Automation at Havieron should also forced down operational costs
Hi Hawkespear
Yes I agree that the smaller countries will not want or can't afford to change but they might have to.
Take Trinidad one of the largest producers of ammonia which is made from hydrogen and nitrogen, the hydrogen comes from removing CO2 from natural gas and therefore one of the big carbon emitters. Looking forward and change this to hydrogen from renewables then anyone country could make their own ammonia.
Trinidad will have to change.
Plus anyone bigging up oil stocks Need their heads checked. Especially MATD. Lifestyle company that will need massive injection of funds to get to production on a weak oil price with even weaker need for the product. The big big oil producing countries are in hibernation currently and any increase in demand will be met easily by them.
Still you enjoy the months and years of sweet FA in the Mongolian ministries
I agree with WelshFalcon. And in my opinion, even if someone were to advocate a relationship between Covid and the POG, this pandemic of Covid will have lasting global effects, one of which is a prevalent fear amongst governments of what the next cataclysmic (definition not restricted to earthquakes) event will be. The global economic consequences of this pandemic are such that with government debt high and government gold reserves low, that shiny stuff will remain prized for a long time to come.
IMO
@Petrodollar
"Covid vaccine or move towards herd immunity rather then isolation and POG will start falling. Germany leading the way an others will follow imo."
That is a false co-relation. POG is not related to Covid or availability of Covid vaccine. There is a co-relation between POG and the unprecedented monetary reactions of governments around the world. The massive amounts of borrowing needed to prop up their economies has been done. That is here to stay and is causing gold to regain it's position as a safe haven asset. Any changed in Covid from now on will have no effect on Gold, any easing / hardening of the monetary response will.
Agree with most of what you say Bamps, but don't forget that the under developed countries will still be using fossil fuels for many years to come. But gold is definitely where it's at, so much so I've just bought some more of these golden tickets this morning and aim to keep on buying while still cheap.
Back to oilers en masse - you need a rethink of your strategy.
By the time this stock has run it's coarse oil use will be plummeting.
Renewables is the future market to get to zero emissions by 2050 not oil.
Cars will be nearly all electric by 2030 but even this will not be sustainable as there is not enough copper or cobalt to achieve it.
Trucks, trains, planes will all be on hydrogen.
Hydrogen in a few years will replace Natural Gas. Bosch boilers are already making theirs to run on hydrogen.
oil will still be needed but the likes of Saudi etc will be fighting over sales reducing the price making smaller finds uneconomical.
I don't believe the small investor will ever make their fortune in oil stocks something always jumps up and bites you!
broken $2050, now 2051